btamsc February 6, 2017 No Comments

Gold breaks 1226.

[stock_forex_markets_heat_map settings=”type=stock;background=#fff”]

Most traders have just returned after the long Chinese New Year holidays.

Today, Asia

Is a force to reckon with, namely South East Asia, with Hong Kong leading, Singapore, Tokyo, Shanghai, Mumbai and Kuala Lumpur are increasingly becoming Financial Capital Centre’s and holidays here are often in tandem with quite low volumes in;

European

And America’s Market.

What does this mean? Your guess is as good as mine. – Daniel Mankani

In any case, Chinese New Year holidays always bring memories of Redpacket.com

China tweaked some of its short term interest rates to the upside and gold has now broken out of its top max resistance. In December 2016, we highlighted, that; if Gold breaks above 1226, it will be time to pay attention on matters of geo-political, deteriorating international relations and may provide clues of picked up momentum, massive confusion and chaos in global order and this will; also indicate the coming peak in the US dollar. The US dollar is indeed the greatest bubble of our time’s.

And Its not coincidental that the greatest bankruptcy expert reins leadership on the most bankrupt nation on the planet. It may seem to you, that this is a coincidence, but as highlighted in various other past postings of ours, its not coincidence, but by design. Historically, there has been no country or empire that has come out unscathed by engaging in useless, expensive, overseas wars, which add to it no added benefit, but just providing a feeling of benevolence. That’s America for you, today!.

What is Dynamic Trader, Trend Trading Dynamics & Disclaimer’s

Stocks are flashing RED.

Albeit, this chart is from 2013.

Stocks have been kept elevated by global central banks buying equities with both fists. This regular interventionist activities by such groups, is an attempt to create a misunderstanding and drive a perception, with the hope, that it manifests itself, that all is well.

Such is an experiment, that former Federal Reserve chairman, Mr Ben Bernanke undertook, in order not to let the economy hurt, as badly, as it did, in the great depression.

Dollar Yen Threatening Weekly Lows. Its not only gold. Flashing RED.

The equity market and its underlying is fundamentally driven, you can only create an illusion and as much so, only till, such a time, that the illusion can take hold by itself and manifest itself, but when you have multiple time cycles coinciding at the same time and they are against it, such an attempt can indeed lead to a much undesirable behaviour and a threatening outcome, which again, by itself, repeats itself.

Foolhardy, as it all seems now. Not only Stocks, debt and money too is manipulated at much greater levels.

Even back then in the roaring twenties, there was also a Mr; Bernanke back then, who also would have tried his hand at the shadow game of perception management. past charts are simply, reflective of those times, which again repeat itself with greater volatility.

./update.21:50hrs KL: Remember this; The down move will announce itself with a min of 2% move.
Additionally, US Stocks have not have had a 1% move over the last 43 days.

What does this mean? Your guess is as good as mine.

Key Stats.
Gold Key Levels: 1180.55 {Support}
1260 { Pivotal Resistance |
2017 Low: 1146.05 | High: 1244.76
2016 Low: 1060.54 | High: 1375.17
Historical High: 1920.74 {09/2011}
Recent Bottom: 1046.18 {12/2015}
Short Term Bias: Bullish / Peaking
Medium Term Bias: Bearish / Bottoming
Long Term Bias: Bullish.

When SPX breaks down, gold could be nearing 1243. A potential stopping zone within 1238-1243 region. If stalled, then 1218 needs to provide support, a move below here, opens up 1200 and 1185, fooled ya for X-Mas plays out. Am expecting two things at the same time.

A break of SPX as well as stalling of gold near 1238-1243 region. Now, although both markets are closely co-related, Ceteris Paribus; SPX down has seen gold bids at most times, this occurrence has been on a tick-by-tick basis and as if, GOLD is a safe haven / Trump INFLATION play.

With the current setup, there is now an even great possibility that gold break downs, as the fools rush in, setup completes in the stock and bonds markets.

Each and every time, right at the peak, first the stock market sells off and gold rises with noble intentions, once here too, fools rush in completes, the sell off begins, momentously driven further as the stock plunges takes greater hold. my speculative mind tells me, it may be right about this time the collapse hits, And we see gold too, sells off, this has happened at the apex of every peak. This coming sell off, could offer an even enhanced; buying opportunity.

No different this time.

./ We shall see.,

dtrader February 6, 2017 No Comments

Tips for Avoiding an Out of Money Experience

Do you run out of money before you run out of month? Many do, but it doesn’t have to be that way! Wealth is the result of widening the gap between what you earn and what you spend. Most of us make the mistake of ramping up our spending as our disposable incomes rise. This is self-defeating. If you do not develop a respect for money, it will always elude you.

btamsc January 29, 2017 No Comments

A dangerous bend in the road.

Stock markets remain elevated, driven up euphoria on trumps victory, what it all is; This is HOPE, the period of disbelieve before reality.

A dangerous bend in the road. – Daniel Mankani.
Where am i going? There is a turn just ahead. Oh, its bending, I can’t see, where its going?

Once again, nothing is by chance, you may think coincidence, but lets speculate for a while, its all by design, shall we?

The demographics don’t tally, the system is build for only one way, a mechanism that just inflates, it is just infallible, and so, it may seem.

Then comes the bend on the road and you can’t see destination next and remain in hope, just soon, around the corner, I may be able to see, then it eludes you.

That’s what hope does, to you, is it not?. The Period of Hope has begun. {2017-2018}.
Hope report of 2001, dot com bust is here.

In our recent observations.

The Dow Closed above the 20000 MARK for the first time ever.
The Pound had one of the largest up move days since 1997.
And various such observations, this past week.

THINK BIG!

Almost a decade from the greatest recession the world has ever seen, markets are higher highs, property prices higher too and they are even headed higher. Governments or rather politicians have started once again with their populist spin and are resorting to blaming developers, property investors and civic approving bodies of irresponsibility and possibly greed. This happened in 2011-2013.

Various countries thereafter in Asia, implemented property cooling measures, first which began in Singapore, Hong-Kong and then spilled over to Malaysia. So, where do we stand today.

Despite all efforts for the property cooling measures, the fact remains that property prices remain elevated high, professional speculators have exited from the markets completely, while there have been pockets of weakness with some property players, who had not anticipated the affects of the cooling measures, coupled with the slowdown in the economy, as well as with the effects of economic transformation, this in essence is failure of not planning for the rainy day and akin to getting caught with your pant downs, those in such situations, find dire straits and are liquidating at any possible costs. Some breakage in the momentum is present and this will increase as we head lower.

Why: Understand this;

The economic transformation is having a deflationary total affect on the economy, jobs are lost in some sectors and possibly never coming back, Mr Trump with all good intentions, wanting to bring back jobs in America, make america great, -re-start the industrial revolution again, manufacturing jobs is what he is seeking, but aren’t those very same jobs, low end, blue collar types, that are increasingly, been made obsolete with the rise of the machines, 3D printing and the sorts.

Secondly; The economic transformation is a game changing event, some companies, individuals and even countries, not on the global radar before, have emerged with increasingly dominance, and as their momentum is based on rapid speed of deployment and fulfilment, they are taking over customers from someone, somewhere else, and those customers are never coming back.

/update: 16/4/2017;

It only took Trump!,
76 days to get on board.
Now he is full empire!

“A total sell out“;
Is the word on the street.

btamsc January 23, 2017 No Comments

The Hope.

The Hope

Hope plays an important part in our expectation, for hundreds of years mankind has behaved and reacted in a peculiar manner, once things turn sour, we tend to hope and pray for things to get better. Regardless of the situation, hope gives us the strength to hang on and look forward, it makes us to expect the impossible, it tells us a change of luck or a miracle may come our way saving us from these troubled times.

When one starts to leaves things on luck of chance, fate and begins to believe things will get better, then it’s a condition of hope and hope is your worst enemy when you are trading the markets and you are losing, cause hope may only make matters worse.

A condition of hope prevailed on the markets, they had started heading down, but a state of denial supported investors to continue their beliefs and investments on the way down.

Market reports, the media and everything else suggested a correction was underway and Financial Guru’s were on TV, advising everyone that a correction is underway and in no manner this should be read as a all-out collapse of the Internet Sector.

After all the markets had continued to gain year on year for the last decade and corrections then were ideally an opportunity to buy more stock, invest in new ventures and leverage on the lower prices.

The hope was the Feds who had supported previous down moves would ensure that the markets were tuned to the upside for ever, after all a prosperous investing crowd was good for the economy.

With this Investors continued to pour capital into private equity deals and large-scale public companies found valuations cheap to diversify their investments and create new revenue streams for their shareholders.

As the public companies struggled to build their own revenues, their diversification plans provided them with the hope of growth in technology, as technology and the Internet are here to stay and a switch now could help them save the day.

The real problem for the old economy companies was, the supply of goods and services they provided, they had either gone out of fashion or were not in demand anymore and their continuous supply was constantly depressing prices further and creating a deflationary environment in the economy where prices are headed only one way. Lower!

Most old economy companies took this opportunity of lowered equity valuations to diversify into technology, as technology companies continued to remain the darling for most investors and even on the way down, they constantly craved for more.

For the old economy companies this provided an ideal opportunity to sell out and revive defunct companies which had lost an interest with Investors, all they had to add was a good plan worth exploring, huge revenue projections and a management team which had some track record providing the basis for execution.

The problem was not many of these late stage aspiring technology companies understood much about technology or were innovative in any manner, they also hardly understood what had been created and delivered by many by most successful technopreneurs.

A phrase of Investing on concepts prevailed and even after six months since the March 2000 Nasdaq bust, capital could still be raised on ideas of innovation but it was starting to get difficult. Public companies armed with public money continued to soak up private technology companies that provided them with basis of justifications on their own corporate revenues.

Companies in debt, companies with cash flow issues and companies in general who were unable to secure capital via traditional means, one by one realized the opportunity of tapping capital from the stock markets since regulations and listing requirements were been eased. They changed their names, added a dot com, venture, or an “I’ and “e” to their names, jazzed up their offices and headed towards the public who were happy as long as they could pass on theirs buck to someone else. .

Not realizing the real game and noticing the fame. Wealth was been created on the basis of valuations. The public, governments and everyone else applauded technology companies and continued to create an environment deemed perfect for technopreneurs to set up operations.

Successful technopreneur’s, businessmen, and many others who were able to access billion dollar valuations and capital soon joined the bandwagon of setting up incubation companies. They were no longer satisfied with getting a piece of public listed companies and instead wanting to get closer to the action, incubation firms were springing up everywhere.

Traditional companies with experiences in construction and developments, used their excesses warehouses as incubation spaces, companies who had more office space then they could use, converted them into lab where startups could be breed and companies / individuals with nothing much to offer, went around as consultants offering strategic advice to the technopreneur in exchange for equity.

These were indeed the final days, but hope continued for technology and rasing capital became increasingly difficult. Believers of the stock market continued to hope for a turnaround in the stock market and continued to leverage on the way down. With money becaming increasingly hard to raise from stock sales, most turned to trading services and products for equity, for the dot com, its equity was still in demand, although not cash, but for services and those who accepted such deals, their hope was the value of todays equity is still discounted in comparison to future potential. At least this was the hope for everyone.

With the Nasdaq peak in place and constant falling market prices, some venture capital firms and institutional investors were among the first few to realise the changing tides and started to quickly look for alternatives to let go their babies in their portfolio’s.

Some looked for suckers in the financial times for names listed on the stock market, while others were quick to realize the tides had changed and pushed their start-ups for market share instead of revenues and a phrase of consolidation prevailed.

Technology companies merged and consolidated to produce the largest media house, largest data storage company and largest companies of all sort, for it looked good for the public markets, but all the consolidation and expansion required capital and the dollars had already been spend before even a single dime was made.

For there was hope and a sucker in the role of an Individual investor in the public markets and such was their hope, that they invested their life savings on expectations of capital returns a hundred fold.

While some had parted with their life long savings betting on technology, others had simply bet and lost their careers, although stable , they staked it for the fame that came with being into technology. Presidents, ceo’s, manager’s and many had simply resigned form their daily routines, all wanting to take their shot at technology and Internet ventures.

Some quit to setup the next big thing, while others were simply wanting to get out of the boring careers, the Internet had offered everyone something, for some it was cash, for others fame and for the rest a chance to prove their inherent entrepreneurial qualities of Innovation. The career changes that were occurring were indeed a very daring move for anyone, but all the basis of justification for doing so were there, the media had continued to trump success of technopreneurs and stories were abound of individuals risking their careers, marriages and whatever else to ante up in technology on this down move.

Stories were abound of how technology had changed the course of our life’s and how a simple farmer was able to boost productivity with the miracles created by technology, it was a daily occurrence in the local papers to read about how technology combined with biology were creating tissues to save mankind from mortality and how technology had boosted efficiency in the workplace.

But in all this the lesson was clear, time was short and plenty many hopefuls were waiting at the door, hoping to cash out of their tech investments, little did they know that the door had already closed.

With the pressure mounting and as the markets fell, investor’s appetite gradually disappeared and those who had already invested, started to feel the pain and complained, asking questions on how could they have invested in companies which looked so fantastic and yet had no revenues to prove their claims and for the companies who had no revenues, they justified by suggesting their innovation was unique and since so, it requires more capital to reach out to the masses, it requires more capital for education, marketing and in some cases completing product development.

With the markets collapsing, the downfall had squeezed all capital from the markets, investors and companies both were now looking for someone to blame their folly upon, as they both genuinely believed they had become part of a larger conspiracy theory, they increasingly started to look elsewhere to point their blame and claim for their pains.

For technopreneurs, they blamed their venture capital companies for not parting them with any more capital to burn, since it was the venture capital companies who originally preached them the ideas of developing market share instead of revenues, they had told their start-up’s to continue building market share via means of exposure and not focus on revenues, since a company with a greater exposure will be able to command higher premiums on the stock market.

The VC’s had advised their start-ups to execute the “GBF” strategy and to grow big fast and build up their first mover advantages, thinking this would allow the start-up to command significant market share first and then considerable amounts of revenues shall follow, a strategy also deployed by now defunct webvan and even used by Amazon.com in its earlier years.

Amazon.com and Webvan both companies famous for “GBF” strategy relied heavily on access of capital from the public markets and had a powerful affliction that have since killed many dot com’s as well as traditional companies.

GBF is a captivating idea for management, even after its predicament often called for the purchase of assets or businesses that could add value to the overall bottom line of an organization.

Webvan picked up a range of warehouses across America, networked by pickup trucks driven by courteous drivers and hoped for customer satisfaction from lowered prices and an efficient delivery system, Similarly for Amazon, who because of its bulk purchasing power and country wide supply chain hoped that they could provide customers with an overall value proposition.

Once the doors were closed, additional fund raising became extremely difficult and companies depending on them were quickly to feel the pain first, in fact GBF is a very capital-intensive business. Cut off the capital and these companies fall in trouble.

The hope for many was that the Bull Run in the public markets would continue and provide for additional capital as and when required. Corporate America and its efficient management teams had become complacent due to the excess liquidity that was once available and with the bubble now bust, the test of the best was on the cards. The VC’s who once preached first mover advantage now started to learn first mover also is the one to to first hit deal stand woes.

Customers, Investors, employees and partners were now getting upset and were losing their patience, they wanted to know what was happening to their companies, their investments they had made, the products they had purchased and on the companies that were dealing with.

With their loss now turning into Anger, they first turned their attention to the Federal Reserve Chairman, Mr Allan Greenspan for not doing enough and with questions why the federal reserve was slow in reviving the economy and couldn’t the FEDS use a miracle pill to make all the pain go away similarly to the manner the FEDS had acted in the past.

In one of the occasional state of the union address, when the Federal Board met with the government to discuss on going’s issues in the economy, one Senator took the opportunity to question the chairman, asking him, on whether he the Fed Chairman was responsible for the market fallout as he chose to raising interest rates during a time where economic growth was in question and by doing so the FEDS had drained the much required liquidity out of the system and made capital inaccessible for companies who depended on it for growth.

The senator like many others was feeling the pain from the fall in stock prices and when people feel the pain they often fail to remember the good times they had enjoyed due to the stock market rise over the last decade.

Everyone suddenly became upset with the Feds as this time around even actions of the FEDS had failed and the dot com crash was slowly exposing major flaws in the system. The FEDS even after aggressively cutting interest rates failed to provide any boost in stock market prices as well as a boost in lenders willing to borrow money. The financial markets and system was slowly beginning to get into a depression.

With little recourse, Investors started closely examining their portfolio companies, trying to find what was the real issue behind the lowered valuations and falling prices, they were searching now for a solution that would assist them in recovering part of the lost capital and provided them with some sort of justification for their folly.

They then turned towards Investment Bankers, Investment Houses and Market Analyst who had prided themselves with being one of the best money managers and analyst of all times, just before the crash. After all these could be the people who had benefited by selling stock to the public, they reckoned and these were the same people who had made bullish claims of Internet stocks that could never perform, their anger turned towards investment bankers for the reason that Investment bankers and their respective houses could have been working in tandem to push stock to the public suckers, knowing that now they had been suckered, they questioned practices of professionalism in organizations as such.

Lawsuits flew left, right and center against merchant bankers, their analysts and all those who had misled the public into buying now worthless technology companies.

In all of this, there was some hope that if someone could be found guilty then at least part of the lost capital could be recovered, Little did they know, billions had already been lost and the worst ride was only beginning, The danger was too many companies had pulled the tricks on investors and one by one they were been exposed by the public and in doing so they were only eroding further value off the stock market, which they wanted to recover.

For Technopreneurs, they were many, many were indeed hopefuls, hoping for the market to turn so that their investors and companies could go public, the truth was they were still hoping for a free public lunch while the window opportunity for it had long been closed.

Technopreneurship – The Successful Entrepreneur in the New Economy – Daniel Mankani. Published 2003. Pearson Education Asia – All rights, copyright reserved Daniel Mankani { ISBN0-13-046545-3 }

Chapter The (False) Hope >>> Technopreneurship-The Successful Entrepreneur In The New Economy.

LINKS
Disclaimer. http://ul3.com/L30qH
Back to the Beginning. http://ul3.com/aeVUG
BTAMSC – http://ul3.com/vAqdH
The Greed: http://ul3.com/pUDgd
The Ignorant, Zombies: http://ul3.com/PP8Ez
History: http://ul3.com/1rCFA
Chart Patterns: http://ul3.com/54VLV
Introduction to Technical Analysis. http://ul3.com/kcYCE

Writings.
INTRODUCTION TO FINANCIAL MARKETS & TRADING OPPORTUNITIES IN COMMODITY, CURRENCY, & FINANCIAL FUTURES. http://ul3.com/dAFWj
Revolutionary Transformation Ongoing. http://ul3.com/kcYCE
– Global Economic Collapse January 18, 2016

And Why;
Technopreneurship Development – Daniel Mankani. http://ul3.com/kcYCE
– Published Sep 2003. Pearson Education Asia

btamsc January 22, 2017 No Comments

Perception vs Reality

Perception of the Mind. Daniel Mankani.

Perception of the mind, no one can answer. What is wrong or right?, What is the right way forward, No one can tell you?. Is it not?

What you know, is due to some external influences, some experiences of strong emotion of the past, deeply ingrained, which drives your next perception, idea or thought, in the direction, towards the direction, of your own self made fantasy, creation or concept, which was in someway, important to know, and impact, which came about or budded up from that, deeply ingrained emotional impact, that you somehow experienced, and this became, your first budding memory of pain and brought about fear.

While, me too am experiencing an enlightening moment, on this subject, me too am searching, for the definite answer, me too, am driven by thoughts of perception and reality, experiences, which too, came from somewhere.

Crooks of every kind, manipulators of the human mind.

I would also like to believe that, this is my own creation and i am a genius, too.

Look, see, do like me. Truth is; this knowledge, that I have recently acquired, is also a creation of my recent developments.

Its all an influence from somewhere, somewhere external.

There are no coincidences, or luck by chance, its strategic. And as an analyst, its one’s task to question everything.

And as a trader, we trade only in the direction of the trend. if last bar is up?. Are you long or short, on the current bar? Are you against the trend? or in favour of the cycle?.

What is your longer term objective? Where do you think, its heading?, Where is your STOP?

Do you have trades on the trend or against it?
And, Why?

The game of Speculation; is a constant battle of perception vs reality.

Trade the path of least resistance is the cardinal rule always, what happened past, is likely to follow, to continue, amid some setbacks, on the journey, observe the momentum, to tell you, when it bends. Human Behaviour is ingrained, markets don’t change, till human’s do.

Know the BEAST!. If you are looking for hocus pocus, then its hope playing out ON you,

know HOPE, cause that is what 2017 will bring. 2017 will remove the illusion of authority, the illusion of economic recovery, which then begets, a revolutionary, creative destructive move to the downside. Starting anytime, just about now.

btamsc January 16, 2017 No Comments

What 2017 will bring?

The Sanity of Man. Each one wants to know,
what 2017 will bring. – Daniel Mankani

Such is the time, of the year, where every great mystic,
wants to try out his mind. He predicts the future.
What he is really identifying; it’s the trend. Is it not?

The Path of Least Resistance.

Its not hard, but its all there to see. But you choose sometimes, to do not,
maybe on the basis of fear, of what, your mind might see.

Fact is; Nothing is by surprise, but by design.
And those design patterns are all out there, for every one to see.

Here is an example; of what we have witnessed, over the last few years to a decade.

Trends. Geo-Politics.
1990-2000 {Russia withdraws from Afghanistan, after a defeat, Russia was kept engaged in Afghanistan for so long, that in fact, it ran out of money, This was the Russian default and the collapse of USSR.

{ Fact is; Russia was by design, kept engaged for so long, only cause of the Taliban, which was a proxy warrior team of the CIA, Russia was already engaged in a losing war, a war, where a systematic disciplined force, couldn’t perform against guerilla tactics of the rebels, which made Russia run out of Afghanistan in DEFEAT, and this only happened within 12 months, of the rebels, obtaining the stinger missiles, cause it was by design, that engaging your enemy on the battle field, for so long, that it expends all its energy and depletes all its resources, will eventually ensure its collapse, a strategy deployed in the art of warfare for centuries. Hence, despite the Americans owning such missiles as far back as the early 1980’s, they didn’t give those to the Taliban earlier than 1989, hence the reasoning is a good strategy, played out of design, a pattern can now be recognized, if this ever happens, ever again. }

2000-2008 {America finds itself under attack in 2001. Its response; starts another war in Afghanistan, against the very rebels, that they once owned. Next comes a war in Iraq, then, comes the 2007-2008 Great Depression.

{ Fact is; America finds itself as the only super power, which then; engages in various overseas expensive, non productive adventures. Many of them engaged in without any reasoning, just the drums of war for no apparently reason, possibly GREED, all legalised on by great speculation, acts of crime was been committed in the name of democracy for the world. America over the last centuries have bombed more than 50 countries, just to retain, its hold as a super power. Truth is America; is on a decline as it lost its, higher ground of morality, its adventures in Iraq, were build on false premises and greed, since most politicians of that time, were all involved in IRAQ deals, this by itself, became exposed and everyone, who had the eyes to see, , this then in itself, empowered the world. One by one, everyone questioned, What Moral Authority, whenever America called out a Red Line, no one took heed, Today; America is on a state of decline, a vanishing super power, and with huge debts on its head.

2008-2012 { Global Revolutions brought about by extreme high commodity prices, partially caused by the EL NINO, affect. Revolutions broke out in almost all parts of the middle east, all within a very short time. And the ramifications of those, looked like it could also happen worldwide simultaneously.

btamsc January 15, 2017 No Comments

A quant speaks.

a quant speaks.

You have to change for the situation to change.
Inquiry | Understand Karma.

Just like success can be programmed, failures too, are running a program, which in affect is also a program, which exhibits success.

If you are repeating failing, then the cause is no one, but you, as you suffer from the affects of failure, due to your repetitive behaviour, if so, you can also be programmed to counteract those affects, to output the desired behaviour.

As a data analyst, this will make you, understand, that with the data presented, there is no coincidences, everything is well programmed, it’s just the data lying stale there, giving us our very own understanding, of what that is.

It also tells us, if yesterday is the same as today, then tomorrow will be the same, cause human behavior is the hardest to change.

Introduction to TECHNICAL ANALYSIS.

These human behaviours, repeatedly provides us with trends, outputted at various sites of BTAMSC.

This is what we do, at banking technologies Asia. We study data, data that is clean, data that is not obtained, but gathered, studying human behavior, in current form and the past, and we store this data, and call this dataset1 {history}.

On any single day, we analyse practically everything, gathered in real time, these bots of ours, operate like spiders, they dive deep into the web, to collect everything. To know everything, and archive it into history.

We keep track of the news, via snapwire.com.

To analyse to {dataset1}, we add another sets of new data into it, our bots gather and keep track of comments on blogs and all forms of social media, and we store these as {dataset2} as name them as feelings, or thoughts.

With this new data, a new preservative is added into the spectrum, to identify, his reality, vis perception, we scrub the two datasets, against each other.

We get a pattern. A pattern of truth.

Introduction to Chart Paterns.

Most importantly, we get to develop, predictive technology, intelligence is been gathered on our system, by giving us the predicative capability, of determining the next probable outcome, with the relative degree of safety, of potential pitfalls, challenges that may arise, in the fulfillment of the most probable outcome and what if; how; and other potentially required, questions, can be outputted from such a system. The most probable trends, our current condition of inquiry, are again outputted for scrubbing, at http://dynamictrader.com And http://dynamictrader.org, sites we operate since 1998/-.

As such, we run multiple tools of information gathering systems and run them against each other, to determine the path of most probable outcome, this is a trend, that we are attempting to identify, the path of least resistance.

Analysis is a subject of repeated inquiry, that is what it is. The questioning and repeated inquiry, of what if, why, and every such question is the subject of such inquiry, then this is what is outputted, its called Intelligence, a state of {I Know more than you.}.

We then add into {another dataset3} , we call this economy. We track financial data, of all nature.(p)

Financial s Comparison Analysis.

KINDLY ACKNOWLEDGE THIS SITES DISCLAIMER of Dynamictrader before proceeding to any of its archived content. Our permission of granting you access, is depended and subjective based upon your agreement, to all our site terms and conditions, privacy and copyright terms and respective risk disclaimers. of which, you relieve us against any liabilities now or in the future, from the use and access of information, which are raw in nature in many cases, and you may suffer losses beyond your comprehension, leading to even cause of death, if you are walking across the street in deep confusion or doubt.

INTRODUCTION TO FINANCIAL MARKETS & TRADING OPPORTUNITIES IN COMMODITY, CURRENCY, & FINANCIAL FUTURES – Archived on: Jan 2, 1995 | http://ul3.com/dAFWj | http://dynamictrader.org/financial-markets-trading-opportunities-commodity-currency-financial-futures/

We believe in is a world without borders. A world without barriers and monopolies protecting the inefficient are been questioned. The days of segregation are behind us. Talent remains global and capital follows it. Redundant processes once identified become obsolete. Value creation meets success. Technology deployment demands speed!. Its Human Evolution not Revolution. Will you sink or swim?.

Progressively Evolve and aggregate extensible success, deploy existing resources and reinvent. Strategic deployment and high standards delivers value to your customers, our customers!. To redefine processes, Ask BTAMSC, Give us a Challenge!. As Quants, Data is our best friend, without bias and corruption, we identify the inefficient and make them obsolete. For a Better World! Full of Love. For you, for us and our Lovely Planet.

BTAMSC is currently seeking partners to value add in the following joint ventures. Cloud based solution upload.asia, SocialNetwork platform planetic.com, Alternative News Media, snapwire.com, P2P+Merchant Solutions payments.asia, Virtual and Social Gifting redpacket.com, Ebooks Magazine Store emagbook.com, Expats community site, escapeartist.in, Free online educational platform elearningweb.com and virtual office platform keyteams.com.

Bidlease.com – Joint Venture Opportunities.

Learn more about our company, here; http://banktech.net

Our data is not for sale. For fear of corruption and bias.
We practically have no clients, want no clients.
We seek value adding, performance driven, systematically executing; joint venture partners.

Venture capital is available, meeting such criteria.

Our Services. We can help you;
ReInvent
ReInvent the Physical Presence with a Tasks Based Efficient Digital Office.

ReStructure
Restructure skills and resources assets globally with BTAMSC start to end solutions.

ReAlign
ReAlign resources to specific tasks, objectives to meet goals, outlined in milestones.

RePresent
RePresent in various online channels and grow to your full potential.

And Why;
Technopreneurship Development – Daniel Mankani. http://ul3.com/kcYCE
– Published Sep 2003. Pearson Education Asia

btamsc December 22, 2016 No Comments

Lessons from the Asian Financial Crisis, bailouts and capitalism end game.

{raw data}

The fateful day in 1998 when two very smart intelligent Nobel price winners had concocted an excellent never fail strategy of trading, arbitraging on Asian and Russian debt markets, which went awfully wrong against them, it was a year prior, when another great speculator Victor Neiderhoffer’s* wrong call on the markets caused the collapse of his fund, due to him being short S&P 500 puts, Victor had not only his lost fund, when the brokers squared his positions on margin calls, but also his twenty plus years of great performance of winning in the markets. It was the first large bailout I can recall and the largest I had known in my trading career as a speculator. The Feds bailed out LTCM at a cost of around 3.6 billion dollars, and this seemed a very large number, it had to be done, as the FED said “it had the potential to put the markets in a freefall and to avoid economic calamity, the FEDS saved a company which had made a wrong bet and it was considered “To Big to Fail”.

At the same time, the Asian Financial Crisis was underway and people were losing their jobs all around the region, Indonesia, HK, Malaysia, China, Thailand etc, and factories were closing, due to the sudden collapse of their Asian Currencies and as a double whammy prices of their assets were headed lower at the same time too, it was a precarious situation, similar to the situation in the America’s today.

There was no BAILOUT for these entrepreneurs, factories that produce real goods and employment, in fact the IMF prescribed their doctrine of raising interest rates to stem the fall in the currencies, and asked the countries who took loans, to increase taxes to stem the fiscal deficits and told them to lower tariffs and open their markets to competition, so as to integrate into global markets. It was chaos! And panic!

The IMF was not providing these countries with any help or assistance, in disguise all the steps they asked these economies to undertake were to ensure that they would profit from their timely investment and the countries had the capability to repay the loans taken. In other words to get countries into DEBT and Favor.

One man in Asia stood up and said NO to the IMF, he refused to take any loans from them, refused to buy into their chatter and he saw their end game right through, This Man was DR Mohammed Mahathir, the then prime minister of Malaysia. Mahathir took some very interesting, innovative and bold steps, while the rest, i.e. Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand agreed to the IMF. Mahathir instead, closed his economy, undid the opening of markets of the last 50yrs and pegged his countries currency; say to the US dollar at RM 3.80.

With the Malaysian economy now shut to the rest of the world, he could simply do his own internal bailouts as Dosmestic problems could be settled domestically, and it had nothing to do with the International community at large. Bravo, a great move by one man, who stood against the crowd, with the support of his fellow men.

These events taught me a couple of things.

1. Never trust the IMF, or any big organization, their own rules do not apply to them.
2. Speculators will eventually go Bankrupt. The smallest swing will be the cause.
3. Capitalism will eventually destroy itself. It’s called Cannibalizing.

* I recalled the Neiderhoffer story well, as I was on the floor in awe of the market collapse. Neiderhoffer is the author of the Book “Education of a Speculator” a very interesting read.

In Malaysia.

While Mahathir was doing the right things, at that time, as a trader, I couldn’t understand any of it, or of the things he was saying, he said the financial markets are useless, they are of no value, they create nothing, and it’s simply a giant casino. Which in some sense is true, as naïve I was then, I saw him simply as a old man who is past his own expiry date.

A lot of his statements ring true to this date and he is a visionary in that sense. The stock market is indeed a giant casino and it’s only those who sell STOCK that make money.

The cycles occurrence are simply there as a mechanism to transfer wealth out of the populace, with occasionally a few genuine winners to spread the message to invest and be rich in the future. Beat Inflation. They say. Mahathir blamed the IMF, United Nations for the plight that fell on Asia at that time and called the IMF and the UN tools of the mighty powerful Elite.

Static Chart – 1yr
{p}

The 1998 US Feds bailout of LTCM was considered by many in ASIA as double standards, as it was only a year ago the western definition of Capitalism meant there are winners and losers of economic cycles and the losers will be replaced by another set of new budding entrepreneurs who will find fortune. The IMF was against the idea of bailing out companies in Asia who were hard hit with the economic downturn, while in the US just a year later, they were not only bailing out a hedge fund, but also adding the right fuel to fire, by lowering interest rates, flushing capital into the markets so as the desired bailout affect could be met.

Static Chart – 2yr
{p}

How did this bailout result in?, well it created another ripe bubble, as we got into the new millennium, we were greeted with the Dot Com Economy, old rules are out, the new is in, everything out with the old, this time it’s the golden ERA of growth and technology, Its called the NEW NEW THING.

Static Chart – 5yr

Here again the same pattern presents itself, some very smart people including myself, quit the safety of our stable jobs and started out to dig gold on the internet, which was still in its infancy, but all of us went out there anyways; to beat each other with a much dumber idea than the previous to prove that we were indeed smart, how will it work? None of us actually had any idea. Indeed dumb and dumber at work here.

Static Chart – Snapshot

What made us do that, Who told us to do so, we have no idea, but everyone else was doing it, governments wanted technopreneurs, investors greed wanted the next new thing equity, Merchant bankers had the pleasure of selling IPO’s, and we probably wanted to prove out intellect and gain popularity for it. Its estimated the most dumbest ideas of our time had the greatest audience during the dot com era. This same pattern presents itself in all the previous collapses. We shall explore more in detail on patterns of exuberance and stupidity.

Static Chart – Snapshot
{p}

By the year 2000, the New New Thing had created another bubble in the Markets, NASDAQ had rallied 500%, and yes that is five hundred percentage points in a year and half time, from the last October 1998 lows of the LTCM collapse. Note, The huge gain of five hundred percent is not that of an individual stock, but the whole market rallied 500% in just over a year and half, sadly that too ended in a bust. And yet again we had a common game being played out each time. It simply wasn’t sustainable, but we did say, “It’s different this time”, sadly it’s never different. It’s the same pattern of Greed.

Static Chart – Snapshot
{p}

These events taught me a couple of things.
1. Boom Bust Cycle. Hope, Fear, and Greed.
2. The Bailouts. They were getting bigger and far larger than the previous.
3. The cycles were occurring at much shorter intervals than the previous.

Once I identified all those above. I got very very scared at the tops, cause I foresaw the bust coming and for protection I shorted the markets at the tops and when I saw the fear most, I bought at the lows;

Static Chart – Snapshot – 5yr
{p}

My system for knowing tops.
1. The smartest people start to do the dumbest trades.
2. Greed is so prevalent, even a farmer wants to become a banker. And bankers farmers.
3. There is very little time to think, as sales are made on fear of losing out.

My System for knowing bottoms.
1. Value of everything is below the replacement cost and there is much fear of losing.
2. End of the world seems a year or months away.
3. Even a dollar is a very big number. Cash is King.

Static Chart – Snapshot – 2yr
{p}

While all my own market timings and trades were alright. And I profited some, but at what cost? I started to question. I knew the END GAME was been played out and eventually Capitalism will cannibalize itself.

Static Chart – Snapshot – 1yr
{p}

Then comes along the greatest bailout ever known to Man! 2008, The Mortgage market plays itself out to such, an extend that the buyers and sellers became fools of their own devices. Now this was really very, very funny, here too was a situation of the smartest people doing the dumbest trades. And the FED comes out to bail the banks out and bloats its fiscal deficit to almost two trillion dollars.

Now I wondered how the number had changed from 1998’s three plus billion to two trillion dollars. Amazing don’t you think, now if we went down again in let say in a year or two or whenever, Do we have two trillion dollars multiplied a thousand times. I think they call it a sextillion. I don’t think so and here forth there will be no more bailouts. So what awaits us? Let’s find out!

| ITS ALL THERE FOR YOU, to see; if you are unable to see the charts, presented here, please see a desktop machine to see, mobile phones, those who don't have java, appear blank. }

I continued to investigate and tried to understand why the cannibalizing was occurring? What exactly the motive was? who was in charge, why were they happening, was it we as humans were becoming much more efficient where the previous edges that once resulted in growth were been made obsolete, that was my technology angle, from a technological perspective.

Was it caused due to huge economic imbalances? Where the boom and bust cycles were necessary to throw out the excess and start anew again, so as to play the part of distribution. If so, it was hard to hold water in this cup, as the cycles were getting shorter and shorter and we would need longer periods of down turns for the excesses to get soaked up.

For example, China has been creating five to ten new factories every month for the last ten plus years. These were in areas of Steel, Cement, consumer goods etc. Making China the eighty percent plus supplier to the world. So if the excesses had to be soaked up, China would have to close five to ten factories every month for at least the next five years. And you can surely imagine the cost towards loss of employment, the destructive wealth dissipating effect.

I, questioned the objective of the cycles, was it created, manipulated by someone, somebody or government so as to extract wealth out of the system, into their own pockets, was this the trend which provided them to emerge even stronger than the previous past. With this, I delved into various theories, including conspiracy theories, the stories of the Illuminati, and the free masons presented themselves and they started to make some sense. The New World Order, one government taking charge and everyone is simply a digit.

I was looking for repeated patterns, trends and objectives of those trends, something that I was familiar with as trader in the financial markets for the last two decades, it was the same zero sum game, every buyer has a seller and profit is at the cost of the loss of another. As far as I was concerned, I knew that it shouldn’t be that way, profits do not have to be due to the loss of another, or else the cannibalizing effect will eventually destroy even the only winner, as well.

As a trader and a student of Technical Analysis, where charts are observed and past data is used to predict future developments and patterns, it became increasingly clear that everything that is happening today and that will happen tomorrow into the future is from a page taken from the past. We have seen bailouts before, we have seen collapses before, and we have seen chaos, hope, fear and greed playing out before, they were simply called differently in different times. Somehow people have very short memories or had no interest in History. Or they simply were not around long enough to recall what happened in the past.

Delving into Historical records provided further evidence of the current scenarios but there were also some omissions in historical records that were purposely omitted by someone. I wanted to know who that someone is and why?

I became convinced that with the durations of the boom bust cycles getting shorter and shorter, a total destructive collapse was not far away, I took action in my own life, I stopped contributing to society in any form that contributed to that collapse that I had seen coming, becoming a rebel, I though if I wanted to avoid this from happening, writing a book, would be a good thing, it would be my form of research at the same time, provide some important feedback from others, possibly making me wrong on my assumptions.

The economic collapses of 1998 and before were simply “Warning Signs”, and as they had contributed to the future collapses that presented themselves thereafter, they were all connected, like ripples in the ocean that turn into a larger tides, and various tides to create a gigantic wave. These smaller ripples contributing to larges waves, started to increasingly look like a reasoning to the greater collapse that I had seen forthcoming, and every message that came along, I took them as part of the greater warning sign system to which heed should be paid too.

Just like a disease, a person doesn’t get a disease or becomes sick in one day, its various actions over the past many years, maybe decades that contribute to ill health and emotional well being of an individual, if an individual eats plenty, without consideration over the many decades, he will became obese, his bodily functions will sooner or later start to give in, as it can’t support so much of additional weight, but if he exercises then he is able to grow more muscle, strength and stamina, and can carry that excess weight if he wants too. Increasingly, the world economic cycles were also suffering from a similar disease. GREED!

Religions sell HOPE and we institutionalise people who are fearful, calling them MAD. GREED on the other hand is a disease but one that is encouraged in Society, as our barometer of success is often the one who is the most greedy. Greed is such a disease that it will do anything to win its purpose, yet its purpose is infinite, it doesnt have a limit or the word enough, and canibalizing is the last resort.

Reminds me of the Monopoly game, if ten players came together and played the game, in the end there is only one winner, with the whole board to himself, not realising that once left alone on the table, the game is actually over and the chips and properties of the game are of no value.

Debt had began the new defination of wealth, We often associated the ones with the most debt as the most powerful, the most wealthy, logically it just doesnt add up.

Economic Imbalances.

I tried to make sense of the huge economic imbalances, why on one side we had 800 million people in India living on a two dollars a day, and on the other hand some were spending as much as eighty thousand dollars over a single meal, why many people in some of the most sought after cities were on live support with less than six months of personal cash flow, with almost no savings, these individuals could hardly survive for a period of six months without pay, and had to revert to governement run welfare programs. Its estimated that in cities like new york, rentals and utilities takes a bite of upto 40% or more out of ones combined income, and if you added up, groceries and some personal entertainment, restuarants, clubs, movies and the likes, individuals were left with very little balance and possibly have to depend on credit cards for personal cash flow purposes. Soceity had associated debt as the new found wealth.

Similarly, those who didnt participate in this debt game, had actually found themselves to become poorer, as inflation over the years made debt look small in propotion as asset prices increased, so those who never prescribed to the debt doctrine, and didnt leverage up to the tilt as in a game of poker, going all in, actually found themselves to become less wealthier than the others over the last 3-4 decades or so.

I questioned the reasoning behind the increase of asset inflation and also studied the efficient technological advances made over this period of time, if indeed demand was so great, then why electronics, commodities and other commodities were priced lower than their 1970’s highs, even after four decades of inflationary boom, why were commodities priced lower. The argument that we found out better efficient technological ways to access more of the same commodities at a lower cost, made the commodities priced right, didnt make sense, cause if true, then isn’t it with lower prices of commodities, individuals should have less to spend, and more to save, and with more savings, then live would be relatively easier and affordable and financial indepdence within reach.

I continued to investigate and question, Why four decades ago, a 35yr old unemployed youth could play soccer or cricket on the streets, and it was considered normal, if you did that today, you would be considered a noob and a bumber, while the younger generation today, started to work at much earlier ages than before, all in the pursuit of more money, sacrificing their youthful years when there are many other activities, and they did so, not for their family responsibilities or commitments of their family, but its for their own self pursuits, where as they should be enjoying their youthfulness, when they could, as there are only certain sports, games, activities that are best suited for those ages.

Looking at the current generation of today and how families are these days, if we have indeed progressed, then why in one family, both spouses have to work and the cost of kids going to a nanny, seemed relatively proper, when our own forefathers could have more children, less relatively income and one working indiviual was able to support the whole clan. Whose debt had made them to do that, they had no debt from their parents, all of it was their own accumulation.

i looked at my own personal story, i started to work at the age of 16, while at the same time educating myself, so as to provide for my mother, so she could stop working as she aged and i could take upon myself the responsibility of life. I wanted to know if the current generation were up to it, i found out that relationship of responsibility, only occurs in those who had special situations and it wasn’t the norm, so what drives the youth of today, whose parents are much better off than their parents before them, what was their pursuit?

If indeed both partners are working, then savings rates should be higher, as output equals into input, but that too didnt take place, instead everyone was already a slave of debt.

And Why;
Technopreneurship Development – Daniel Mankani. http://ul3.com/kcYCE
– Published Sep 2003. Pearson Education Asia

{ Thoughts from 2010. To be compiled into new updated version of Technopreneurship - The Successful Entrepreneur in the New Economy.

Aptly named, Knowledge Based Economy }

All rights, © reserved, Daniel Mankani

btamsc December 21, 2016 No Comments

The Greed

The greed

Late 1998. A company called theglobe.com was listed on the Nasdaq. With no prior history of revenues and no prior track record the companies listing debut was very well accepted by the investment community, It was a technology company and was building communities on the internet and that what was the potential, theglobe closed up 606% on its first day of trading, not before doing a high of $97.00 (up 854%) before closing down at $63.50 from an initial price was $9.00. Welcome to the new economy.

The term new economy came about due to the strong economic growth the US had experienced and was doing so without inflation, American Stock markets had gained approx 20% year on year since early 90’s and wealth was been created as never before, this was something new and against the basic principles of economics and a totally different environment.

Companies were setting up shops on the Internet from where they could service clients from anywhere. Reach anywhere, sell everywhere was the way going forward.

Huge corporations were creating business-2-business exchanges where they could save millions if not billions of dollars by eroding away inefficiencies in the marketplace and integration of business processes and supply chains managements helped them achieve this.

Financial brokers accepted trading instructions via the Internet and offered tools to traders and investors alike in managing their own monies. Clients were now trading directly on most exchanges at the lowest commission rates and with greatest transparencies.

Overall value was derived by the lowered cost of doing business and the boost in efficiency by the deployment of new technologies, supply chain software’s and integration ensured companies were connected and were able to make efficient use of their information.

It was an excellent environment for starting up a company and wealth creation was at its peak. Media companies such as CNBC and others ran reports of how technology was changing the way business was conducted and carried wealth watch reports on individuals who were richer by a billion dollars within a year.

It was a ride of hope for everyone and fear for the old economy, who feared a takeover by technology companies which could eventually make them extinct since they were slow to adapt to such dynamic changes at a speed well beyond their capabilities. Which in all sense meant more profits for technology companies as selling of their products meant more profits with ease.

The most single important thing demonstrated by the listing of the theglobe.com was the appetite of hungry investors for tech stocks, such an appetite that was not going to cool down anytime soon, everything paled in comparison as history showed Technology stocks offered returns far greater then traditional companies.

Day traders loved them for the volatility, individual investors found them interesting and the future in them and companies who were slow to build acquired them for the value they had missed to build themselves.

Merchant bankers were quick to recognize this fact and actively marketed their services and fed the public with just that, more tech companies with the potential of huge growth and profits. Which also meant huge revenues for themselves and greater returns on unsold positions. It was normal for companies to gain a minimum of 100% or more on their first days of public trading, anything less and it meant some thing had gone wrong.

Valuation was the name of the game and the objective was to ensure higher rounds of valuation, from seed stage to IPO there was ample capital available, typically seed rounds went at a few million dollars and future investment rounds such as the 3rd or 4th went for a few hundred million upon which the merchant bankers would step in and make arrangements to offer stock to the public and public listing valuations were based on what a similar company had achieved and how greater the potential was in future earnings.

With the Internet growing steadily and doubling in size every couple of months, it was not difficult to imagine, a substantial growing consumers base that businesses could sell to and cases of revenue projections were based on (traffic) advertisements banners, products and services that could be sold to this group.

While all this was happening most of the world couldn’t really grasp the phenomenon behind such higher valuations, nor could they understand what was driving the growth behind this sector but one thing was certain. Valuations were headed higher.

Stocks just as America Online, Yahoo and Amazon had already reached high valuation levels which was hard to justify using traditional approaches, but since no one knew what was their real value, a whole lot of investors had lost out ‘big time” on such opportunities.

With companies like Microsoft making Bill Gates as the single richest man in the world, there’s was no sign of the bull ride stopping soon, but still there was too much disbelief that it would end in a big crash and this was just 1998.

Disbelieve from Politicians, media, and hesitation by investors who followed value based investment strategies, questioned on how could a company stock appreciate and continue to rise when the company has not even made a single dollar in revenues and will continue losing money.

All looked well, but in reality things were actually quite difficult everywhere else, Asia was in trouble and recovering from the 1997 Asian Crisis, Russian financial markets had collapsed and Latin America was facing a lethal currency crisis.

The only problem was, the world needed an economic engine, which the US provided, it was a gigantic economic powerhouse with the combined power of Asia, Europe and Japan and is still is, the single biggest gainer in the new economy creating technology and exports it to the rest of the world.

The US blessed with a strong domestic market soaked up the excess supplies of the rest of the world. Goods from China, Japan, Eastern Europe and other parts of the world were making their way into the American markets and America kept on buying and provided that engine.

In the last two decades many countries has jumped into the capitalist bandwagon and were producing goods in excess capabilities in order to turn their economies around and while all this pointed to a deflationary effect everywhere else, in the US it figured as if there was no inflation while they still had growth.

It was a great time for everyone and but it would be nearing its end soon, as its said on the street “the markets will convince all before it turns, the smell of greed is most at tops and fear at bottoms”. There were yet too many disbelievers of the new economy for the market to break so soon.

The turning point came in October 1998, When two noble price winners Mylon Scholes and Robert Merton and an ex Solomon brothers super trader John Meriwether were managing a fund called Long Term Capital Management.

Long term capital management was a hedge fund who arbitraged trading opportunities in Russian and Asian bonds and its trading strategy and model had just gone badly wrong, the problem was the fund was sizable enough to take down Wall Street with it, losses to the tune of 300 billion dollars were now been declared.

Questions were raised on Hedge funds regulations and how such a fund so sizable was allowed to operate. If liquidations were to take place of such a huge portfolio, it had the potential to take down Wall Street with it and create yet another huge financial disaster.

This is what the Federal Reserve feared most and they had to avert this for now as it was too early, Asia and Japan were yet to recover, Europe didn’t show signs of providing that global engine and most important of all, Y2K millennium fears were fast approaching whose effects on the global economy were yet unknown.

Long Term Capital Management was in long-term trouble and a panic followed on the markets. LTCM main problem was caused as Russia had devalued the Rouble and declared a moratorium on future debt repayments, this lead to deterioration of credit worthiness of many emerging market bonds and increases in spreads, Which LTCM had bet against.

Most markets around the world plunged following Wall Street. With the SP500 and Dow Jones off by almost 22% in a few days. It was chaotic and scary and looked like the end of the world is near. Disbelievers cheered and re-iterated their claims that indeed the US was a huge asset bubble ready to be burst and they had given ample warnings, which no one had given attention to and all this could have been avoided.

To their surprise, the Feds kept the market tuned to their upside, it was yet to early for the timing of a financial collapse and the federal reserve moved and created a rescue package to bail out LTCM. Banks were instructed by the Feds to give LTCM more money in exchange for equity into the bankrupt fund.

In addition the Federal Reserve cut interest rates aggressively to ensure the rescue package created for LTCM had its desired effect and the markets turned.

It was a victory for buy and hold strategist and optimist of the markets and they called it the New Economy. Stories were abound of people who had become rich buying on every downturn and this time around were no different.

All this boosted investor confidence even further and the Feds was looked upon as a savoir in the markets who wouldn’t just let the markets collapse as wealth is been created and distributed at all levels within the economy.

The Feds simply didn’t want to create two much of a financial stress as the millennium fears (Y2K) were indeed for real and any major financial disruptions had to be delayed for now.

The single most importance of the LTCM effect was the confidence boost and the trust in the markets, everyone investors, businesses, workers and consumers were all pleased with the wealth effect, why disrupt the party? Which had just began and was on its final path to the upside.

Something else spectacular was happening, the Nasdaq would now gain 400 percent in the next couple of months and euphoria had begun.

LTCM Bailout, Market bottoms and huge rally, the greedy george soros also turns long.

Greed was taking over. Such greed that there was adamant confidence and trust in the markets which would continue even after the market had collapsed.

Traditional investing was out, in was new investing, day traders would gather in chat rooms and trade over rumors. Street café’s were specifically set-up to provide traders with trading information and execution access, where they would gather everyday to work but on their own monies.

New electronic communication networks (ECN’s) were set up to provide traders with the much-required liquidity, which lacked in technology and Nasdaq stocks.

Fears of competition from ECN’s made stock exchanges to relax their rules at all levels, listing requirements were eased and secondary exchanges started to spring up everywhere.

From Tokyo to Israel stock exchanges allowed new tech start up’s to list and raise capital from the public with ease, no previous revenue track records were required for new companies but they had to be in technology.

For the exchanges they wanted to compete with the Nasdaq, which was famous for technology companies and was the favorite among all others, Investor appetite was greater and start-ups could get the best valuations, which these new exchanges lacked.

This was the new economy, yearly growth no inflation and success was determined by investors for their companies that had achieved IPO status.

Money was everywhere. Companies with no prior records of managing funds in private equity were calling themselves Venture Capitalists. One such story was of a fund manager who after losing massive amounts of money during the Asian crisis decided to take a holiday in the Caribbean, once there he noticed young 20 something individuals flying in with their own jets and having a great time. This bothered him and he asked one of them what do you do?

The answer he got is “we are technopreneurs and we are rich because our company got listed, but this is nothing you should see our financiers”. The fund manager quickly cut his holiday short and returned to Hong Kong, once there he raised 50 million dollars and started up his own venture capital company.

It was later known that this venture capital firm had hit a home run and his original 50 million had turned into a billion dollars in about 12 months time.

Such were the days, where Venture capitalists and Angel investors went around sourcing deals in private equity and on the other hand raised cash themselves either thru a back door listing or from high net worth individuals.

Also joining in were Stock traders who made handsome profits purchasing stock at listing prices and re-selling later on, soon realized there is much more to gain if they were able to get closer to the value chain themselves and began sourcing deals in very early stage companies themselves

The criteria was simple, the company had to be a technology idea and have some commercial viability, most important of all the companies management had to have their eyes on an IPO and to fulfill these objectives, funds were provided to them to build, conduct R&D and ready till the stage until where a venture capitalist would come in at.

Founders everywhere started to quit their stable jobs and set out to set up their own Internet empires and it was perfect. Good news followed and the media reported.

Elsewhere established larger companies like Microsoft, AOL and YAHOO were already fighting battles among themselves trying to emerge as market leaders in the Internet community space. The idea was simple; one who owned the community had a massive competitive advantage to market to those consumers.

A space where Microsoft was weak in, with its existing monopoly in the desktop and personal pc market, Microsoft soon realized potential pitfalls the Internet had brought about for them and needed to scale up fast in building its web community platform.

The threat for Microsoft came from companies like AOL who had a ready pool of consumers through its ISP service made Microsoft to search for solution.

Just about that time, Hotmail was actively building their reach, the web first free web based email service had amassed a huge client base by providing free email service to individuals in India, China, USA and practically around the world.

Individuals who couldn’t afford a personal computer or who found difficulty in getting their own email services from their ISP, looked upon hotmail as the new medium to connect with friends, families and associates across the globe at practically no cost.

Email been the most popular communication platform on the Internet provided Hotmail with a strength and scale to deploy viral marketing techniques to build up their user base. Hotmail would just keep on growing as users were advertising on behalf of Hotmail every time they send an email to their friends and associates. With 9 million established users, Hotmail became a target for acquisition by Microsoft, who originally offered 150 million dollars for the two year old start-up, which Hotmail management team refuse, eventually four months later in December 1997 Microsoft paid Four hundred million dollars for Hotmail.

The initial four founders of Hotmail became very rich in identifying this opportunity and capital provided by Menlo Ventures and Draper Fisher Jurvetson (venture firms) had scored a big home run in a game of merger and acquisitions that had only just began. Total investments in Hotmail is estimated to be less than 15 million, with Hotmail going for it’s forth round of investments raising 3 million in just April 1997.

For the venture capitalist that had been approached by the hotmail team for investments earlier on, had now seen the light and it created a feeling of unhappiness for them. Not been able to identify an opportunity knocking on your doors is a big miss, which very few individuals will ever forget. Since then everything on the Internet with the word first mover became first mover’s advantage.

Valuations in the stock market continued to the upside and this gave public listed companies the currency they needed to purchase brands, concepts, competitors, and even expand and develop new markets.

The community building spree continued and everyone out there wanted a piece of action in the community space, more deals followed. AOL cut deals with Bell Atlantic, purchased Netscape for 4.2 billion and this spilled towards other ISP’s who wanted to fight off competition did the same, (AT) @Home another ISP moved to acquire Excite for 6.7 billion and Geocities a company that provided free web pages for community was acquired by Yahoo in a stock deal worth 3.56 billion.

In a buying spree, the public loved technology stocks for their upside and the promise of the new economy, it was normal for firms to double or triple in prices on first days of trading.

Everyone in essence was getting richer. Real wealth was been created and distributed all levels. The Feds to a certain level ensued all things been equal the show must go on. Japan was still in trouble and if the global engine stops we all might get into a deep recession.

By Mid 1999, the frenzy just caught on further and everything related to technology was hot. The most important effect felt in the economy were the changes in the media, who till now reported on a bubble collapse in the US, were now providing a basis for the new world, economy and changes made by technopreneurs.

They ran articles of successful technopreneurs, covered events and even set up their own Internet ventures. They talked about technopreneurs who were making a difference, technopreneurs who willing to risk all for pursuing their dreams and fulfilling their visions.

Technopreneurs Who could access capital, turn their ideas into reality and list on the markets, turning original millions of investor’s money into probably billions, all in a matter of a six months.

The media had turned from being bearish to extremely bullish on technology all within a matter of six months and the markets loved that, merchant’s bankers praised them and sold more stock.

Governments everywhere were threatened by the these new corporations as they were been build, they were big fast and moved quickly, their eyes opened up to the billionaires been created in the west and they wanted a piece of the internet action, they called it knowledge based economy and created special IT trade zones which allocated vast amounts of national resources to start-ups for a promise of putting these countries on the world software map.

Old economy rules were thrown out and new policies were put in place to accommodate technopreneurs, bankruptcy was now considered hip and in order to facilitate adventurers to come again and take a shot at the business world once again, Bankruptcies laws were amended, allowing previous bankrupt individuals to reclaim their credit in society and start all over again. In some countries they even presented an award to individuals who were once bankrupt and had fought back against all odds to become successful once again.

This was truly one of the best times in history to setup a company and venture and this is what happened, New 18 year olds were setting up companies and were looked upon on as becoming the next the bill gates, corporate mission statements read, “we like building companies and have fun in doing so and traditional bankers went to office in t-shirts instead of the traditional suit and tie’s.

Company’s success was determined by how many investors they had and higher burn rates were considered growth, capital promised growth in market share and there was plenty.

Venture capitalist ignored the fact and demanded market share and exposure while sacrificing revenues and their targets. Been profitable was not in fashion and growing big fast was the way going forward. They wanted start-ups who could scale and become industry leaders and the start-ups let them hear just that.

The money flowed back into the economy and everything with dot COM was hot, not a single day could pass without one been bombarded via big billboards, colorful busses and TV advertisements shouting out DOT COM.

Suppliers wanted them for their cash, employees looked upon them for success and investors wanted their equity which was worth more then gold and were willing to trade for them with services.

Landlords offered free rentals, lawyers, accountants offered their services and practically everything could be purchased with a option of a private equity, traditional media giants picked up equity in companies in exchange of free air time and prime time advertisement spots.

The logic was simple for investors, “I know the price I am paying is absurdly high, but somewhere out there is a greater fool than I am who will, when the time comes will pay an even higher price” The tech bubble doesn’t burst until the greatest fool of all has brought” they said.

For start-ups it was even simpler, the market was singing their tunes. Every day was party time, either a networking session event or a posh new dot com launch would be held, investors would come around as gullible as they were, looking to meet some promising start up’s to give them their hard earned money.

We were approaching the year end and fears of y2k had subside as money could take care of everything and there was too much of it around, new IT spending boom prevailed and billions of dollars was spend in upgrading of IT networks to ensure trouble free transition into the millennium. This added fuel to the lofty prices of the stock valuations.

Optimism was highest at all stages and so was greed. Practically every traditional company now had their own venture arm for investments into start-ups and for those who were lesser financed and had existing inventories and resources to trade set up their own incubation center’s all for the share in private equity of a dot com.

Non tech related companies began to realized the value behind the dot COM name and started branding themselves by adding a net or com to their businesses, with ease of listing for new tech companies, loss making companies, factories, manufactures, and property developers who were in dire straits and in need of capital could now secure financing through listing on these new tech markets and were partially exiting their positions while the gullible investor wanted more.

Elsewhere companies were losing talent to start-up companies, bright individuals with good careers were quitting their companies for a punt at the Internet world and the media sang glory of technopreneurs who were making a difference.

Universities and IT training centers followed the boom and starting educating individuals in technology, as it was hot and there was a huge demand for people who could build and manage technology for non tech savvy companies.

In countries like India billboards read “ 25000 programmers needed in USA, Germany and Singapore. Confirmed Jobs, Six Months training and everywhere else it was no different.

The Schools, universities and training centers started to offer courses in e-commerce, dot.com, technopreneurship and the likes. They were churning out individuals by the thousands and the Americans were employing them.

Manpower services companies were set up to facility this trade, which is no greater then the body shopping business but there was demand and someone had to do this job.

With rigid laws for employment and a constant shift in technology focus, most companies didn’t want to employ full time staff and opted for a contract with the manpower services companies to hire people from them on contractual or project basis, they paid good money for each individual sometimes far exceeding the salaries of local staff which were hard to find and again for companies who didn’t want long term liabilities this offered a perfect solution.

This contributed the basis for revenues for most Indian listed technology companies who instead of building software solutions were nothing more but a manpower services company, expected gain on each staff contracted sometimes exceeded a couple of thousand dollars each month and the idea was simple the more people I ship the more money is there to be made. On Average four to five thousand programmers were shipped monthly if you multiply that with a two thousand dollars each, you get a very nice number for revenues, which could also make up a very nice case for a public listing process.

In other areas in India a software solutions firm at one time with a revenue base of 150M gained a market capitalization of 34 billion dollars as they were one of the few software companies from India listed on the Nasdaq and as most fund managers who follow herd instincts found this company as the only one with huge value in them.

As most old economy companies made the plunge into technology they lacked expertise in this space, then came along technical executives who could assist them in achieving those corporate goals, prices escalated further and so did salaries but this time the companies had to also part with options into the new company.

One particular incident worth mentioning is the IPO listing of a company out of Hong Kong called TOM.com, TOM.com was conceived by Mr Li Ka Shing, the richest man in Hong Kong with previous businesses in construction, real estate, utilities and telecommunications, there was something lacking, no dot.com, so Mr Li conceived an idea to create his own multimedia empire and tom.com would be it.Such was the euphoria that thousands of investors woke up as early as 5.00 AM to queue up outside of a bank for application forms for the initial public offering of shares in tom.com, which was a subsidiary of Cheung Kong Holdings Ltd. and Hutchison Whampoa Ltd both Mr Li’s companies. Tom.com was listed in Feb 2000; the estimated public float was US$1.47 Billion. According to Hong Kong police some three hundred thousand people had joined the queue.

The greedy come out in crowds, all wanting a piece of the action, just near the top. An estimated 300 thousand people lined up since early morning. Tom.com IPO

Elsewhere in Malaysia the government build up a whole new colony for technology companies and called it Multimedia Super Corridor and offered first class facilities for technopreneurs, besides these other benefits included Venture capital, 10 years of tax holidays and a chance for these companies to bid for government related contracts.

Everyone wanted to duplicate silicon valley and they attributed the success of America upon ready available capital and the risk averse entrepreneurs needed to innovate.

Disbelievers of the new economy were one by one convinced by the new economy and by March 2000, everyone who had not joined the rally to the upside was on the bandwagon.

Funds, who bet against technology, started investing in them and changed their strategies. Tiger Fund, Warren Buffet and George Soros all previous disbelievers now had investments in them and were now bullish on the future then ever. To them it just didn’t make any sense, but when you are wrong you can’t hang on for long.

By now most pension funds which were supposed to ensure livelihood of many individuals in their golden years were invested in technology, Universities, Private trusts, hedge and mutual funds were punting on them and in fact the US government was also considering parting with its citizens social securities funds to get a piece of the technology action.

It was these chains of events and timing that outlined a near term collapse.

Between 1999 and March 2000 most bearish funds made record purchases of technology stocks and the Nasdaq 100 was now 400% up from its LTCM lows.

And the media, behind the curve, on hindsight tried to make sense of everything.

There were more bullish books on the subject of investing then any other time, two books in particular worth mentioning were released which outlined continued market growth “Dow Jones to hit 36000 and 40000 respectively” and famous author of liar’s poker Michael Louis released the New New thing where he writes about new internet billionaire Jim Clark, the founder of Silicon Graphics and Netscape and who was going to turn health care on its ear by launching Healtheon, which would bring the vast majority of the industry’s transactions online, After coming up with the basic idea for Healtheon, securing the initial seed money, and hiring the people to make it happen, Clark concentrated on the building of Hyperion, a sailboat with a 197-foot mast, whose functions are controlled by 25 SGI workstations (a boat that, if he wanted to, Clark could log onto and steer–from anywhere in the world).

It was the timing again of Michaels story, whose previous book coincided with the bond market collapse of the eighties where he describes the height of the junk bond craze and the atmosphere of competitiveness and the vast rewards everyone was reaping as a result of that boom.

Greed had taken over.

On April 3rd 2000, the Nasdaq broke down. But this was not before establishing a high of 4816 on March 24 2000. A gain of close to 500% from its LTCM lows.

And the once poster child for the rise of the Internet Bubble Theglobe plunged to a low of 19 cents, a staggering 99.8 percent from the company’s all-time high of $97, which it reached on its first day of trading and was given the de-listing notice by Nasdaq for failing to recover to the required $1 minimum bid price. It currently trades on the OTC- Bulletin Board (Feb 2001)

Technopreneurship – The Successful Entrepreneur in the New Economy – Daniel Mankani. Published 2003. Pearson Education Asia – All rights, copyright reserved Daniel Mankani { ISBN0-13-046545-3 }

Chapter The Greed >>> Technopreneurship-The Successful Entrepreneur In The New Economy.

And Why;
Technopreneurship Development – Daniel Mankani. http://ul3.com/kcYCE
– Published Sep 2003. Pearson Education Asia

btamsc December 20, 2016 No Comments

Trends: The entire system needs a reboot, a kick in the butt. moment.

The entire system needs a reboot, a kick in the butt, a wake up call,
saying; ” LOOK!, All of this, is a very big misunderstanding “,
if you know what I mean.

- daniel mankani, author, Knowledge Based Economy. Published on: Dec 20, 2016 @ 08:01

The news reports emerging are all crazy and those in power, have resorted to calling it FAKE NEWS.

Fine, one can agree to that, it could be false, but telling someone or deciding for someone else, what true and fake is already an attack on ones conscious, an individuals moral right of free will. Telling them not to think? and emphasizing is no wonder, why, there are indeed, so many zombies in every part of the system.

The entire educational system has wrongly assumed the role of telling everyone what is wrong and what is right, by practicing teaching of education by the means of memory recollection, instead of teaching students of How to think?. Once you destroy this thought process and try to define individuals further by leading them into higher educations, certification, then careers and professions, you are already creating zombies for the benefit of the masters of the system, serving up slaves, and controlling them by debt and fear of losing out to peer pressures, driving up their insecurities further and away from their own discovery, and then you still expect them to be efficient and innovative in their approaches. You are sitting on a big fat wish.

No wonder we are now faced with the kick in the butt moment. Note, its you!, who took away, their moral right to think? And its you, who has now become the solution to everything, despite you been the one, who got everyone unto this path of mess, in the first place.

And its no surprise today, that the world is lacking solutions to all the worlds problems, cause the ones who are suppose to have solutions are the same ones, who actually got us into this mess in the first place, Is it Not?

Before, we go on with this discussion further, lets first analyse, what exactly is a zombie?

A zombie is a computer code that does things based on a rule based engine, it has no thought, no empathy, it just does what it’s told.

To add intelligence, you need to add, what and if scenarios. And if you can cover all the possible, what and if scenarios, then you will encounter self intelligence and a self learning process begins, chip based systems refer to this as artificial intelligence, while humans don’t need to learn this as they have a natural ability to think, but it becomes a case of; use it or loose it, becoming a zombie.

On the other hand, a rule based approach, which is reactionary to current circumstances and with more code and more rules added on top of past errors as in order to cover the gaps as and when they become self evident, is a reactionary self preservation approach, So new rules are written on top of the current set of rules, and what you get is a systematic collapse, as each new rule added is in the interest of self preservation, in deception and deceit to address past flaws and what the system master doesn’t recognize or acknowledge his past mistakes, he then becomes bound to repeat them again, continuing down the path, not fixing but counteracting his past gaps, while opening up issues, leads the system to becoming bulky, non operative, buggy, and then a crash.

its a bad code, a destructive bad beast gene, A virus thought process. Monkey see and Monkey do. And a ZOMBIE!

The zombie virus is pursuing a systematic approach, reactionary and impulsive of destruction behavior in its self preservation mode. Its not not value creating or efficient in its design, its reactions are based on its current circumstances and the need to survive and it doesn’t understand its own current circumstances and understand all events are dynamically changing and as each new action or event is introduced into the equation making once again circumstances to change evolve dynamically in its the current and the future forms accordingly, while the past flaws still remain hidden. And that’s why, its often said; when the truth emerges, it always runs a shiver down your spine in this case complete loss of self preservation, misery and its own collapse.

Companies too.
Companies, who charge customers on the basis of their own costs, their rationality been their costs that they need to cover in order to survive instead of costs incurred in delivering value.

Governments too.
Self interest and reactionary policies are so much further away from the actual truth, the equilibrium of all things. A pattern quite evident for those who can see and its worldwide.

And Individuals.
They rather drop off the jobs force, become a non participation statistic, rather than take a job at a lowered pay, than get paid less than their own expectations to survive. It don’t matter to them, that taking a new job and a new job skill, will make them productive once again, yet; they prefer the path and the jobless pain’s it brings to them.

No one is to blame. Another misunderstanding. It will deliver the pain needed for change to occur and those who don’t evolve or do not want to evolve will find misery and its company and time and time again all failures are due to this repetitive destructive pattern of a Zombie.

Zombies! will eventually be all eradicated and after some time they too will evolve and corrupt the system again. but not in the age of transparency, where all that you have done and will do. Is known to all.

And Why;
Technopreneurship Development – Daniel Mankani. http://ul3.com/kcYCE
– Published Sep 2003. Pearson Education Asia

07:30 – 19:00

Global Locations,

+1.818.206.0181

Blog

Gold breaks 1226.

Tips for Avoiding an Out of Money Experience

A dangerous bend in the road.

The Hope.

The Hope

Perception vs Reality

What 2017 will bring?

A quant speaks.

Lessons from the Asian Financial Crisis, bailouts and capitalism end game.

Lessons from the Asian Financial Crisis, bailouts and capitalism end game.

These events taught me a couple of things.

In Malaysia.

The Greed

The greed

Greed had taken over.

Trends: The entire system needs a reboot, a kick in the butt. moment.

The entire system needs a reboot, a kick in the butt, a wake up call,
saying; ” LOOK!, All of this, is a very big misunderstanding “,
if you know what I mean.

07:30 – 19:00

Global Locations,

+1.818.206.0181

The Hope

Lessons from the Asian Financial Crisis, bailouts and capitalism end game.

These events taught me a couple of things.

In Malaysia.

The greed

Greed had taken over.

The entire system needs a reboot, a kick in the butt, a wake up call, saying; ” LOOK!, All of this, is a very big misunderstanding “, if you know what I mean.

The entire system needs a reboot, a kick in the butt, a wake up call,
saying; ” LOOK!, All of this, is a very big misunderstanding “,
if you know what I mean.