1990’s The End of Real Innovation and Growth.

June 19, 2018

 Brief: Innovation, growth and human development are closely correlated. Today’s youth are losing their cognitive abilities and problems of today are not with innovation but excessive experimentation.

  • 1990’s is when we saw the last bouts of real innovation, 1990’s is also the time frame witnessed when Youth IQ levels have been dropping.  The world is indeed dumber and in the quest to access and justify capital, startups and companies tend to pitch artificial intelligence, big data, and autonomous systems simultaneously, when its factual Machines Do Not Think and possibly never will.
  • Computing is an execution of systematic codes and programs, they do not have intuition in pattern recognition, which is essentially a key component for innovation.
  • The End of Innovation in the 1990’s and the peak of economic growth is correlated and many of the problems we witness today is not due to innovation but rather excessive experimentation which is having disastrous consequences on society.
  • As part of a series to delve into these insane experiments, In part 1 we attempt to explain what is real innovation and growth. In part two we delve into the deeper workings of Artificial Intelligence and to explain how unintelligent these systems can be, yet this doesn’t stop experiments into various systems which are purportedly flawed and it continues by those just to be proven right (BIAS) at the huge costs of time and capital, while at the same time unleashing disruptive and destructive conditions on the global economy.
  • Use of Smart Phones and dependence on technology are making the youth of today lose their cognitive abilities and the main cause of youths unemployment- Daniel Mankani

 


1990’s and The End of Real Innovation and growth.

In 1434 Johannes Gutenberg, a goldsmith by profession developed a printing system by adapting existing technologies for printing purposes. In 1712 it was Thomas Newcomen with his “atmospheric-engine” who can be said to have brought together most of the essential elements established by earlier inventors.

Thomas Edison played an instrumental role in the development of the telephone. Edison had been working on methods for sending two messages simultaneously over a single wire for many years. In 1872, after Western Union adopted Joseph Stearns’s duplex for sending two messages in opposite directions, company president William Orton hired Edison to invent and patent other methods “as an insurance against other parties using them.” While working on duplex telegraphs, Edison realized that he could send four messages simultaneously by combining the duplex with a diplex for sending two messages in the same direction.
In 1875, with a contract from Western Union, Edison began work on the acoustic telegraph, which used tuning forks to send telegraphic messages at different frequencies at the same time. He would use this money to build Menlo Park. From this work on acoustic telegraphy, which he pursued at the same time as Alexander Graham Bell, came the telephone, which relied on Edison’s research, and the phonograph, which was inspired by the potential to replicate the sounds of acoustic telegraphy.

It was Edison’s Carbon Microphone in the receiver that was licensed by Bell and remained in telephones for more than a century. By 1876 Alexander Graham Bell is credited with the development of the first practical telephone, who too recognized the contributions of earlier inventors and with that came we got the Phonograph in 1877 and the lightbulb in 1878.

All these inventions effectively led to enhanced economic activity and an improvement into human conditioning, which prior to were a drag on society and economic participation limited to agrarian communities as men slogged at the farms while women in charge of the households were mostly left to draw water from distances, doing laundry which took up two days in a week and without electricity it meant hard laborious conditions for day to day life.

In 1903 the Wright brothers achieved the first powered, sustained and controlled airplane flight and two years later they broke their own milestones when they flew their first practical airplane, here again, made possible by drawing upon findings from earlier inventors and their observations.

By 1941 a new device came along which could be instructed to carry out sequences of arithmetic or logical operations automatically or via program codes and this became the first computing machines whose costs of ownership were prohibitively very high and were only used by governments for record keeping and instantaneous calculations.

In 1965 Gordon Moore observed the trend at which transistors chips were evolving made a prediction in his paper described a doubling every year in the number of components per integrated circuit and projected this rate of growth would continue for at least another decade. In 1975, looking forward to the next decade, he revised the forecast to doubling every two years.

And by late 1970’s and as predicted by Moore’s Law we saw the advent of the microcomputers and with affordability came mass adoptions of these machines. But these machines were standalone independently working machines thereby as a means to natural progression saw the advent of the Internet, allowing connectivity and collaboration as a means for enhanced efficiency.

Beginning from the early inventions in the 2nd century until the creation of the Internet in the 1990’s, all of the inventions were addressing problems for which there were no other real alternatives. They were fulfilling a real gap market demand followed with their efficient uses and instrumental problem solving, new industries sprung around them, and they had a powerful impact for all mankind, where human life and conditioning vastly improved.

These Real Inventions are in use even today and they can never be dislodged. With the end of these innovations, global growth collapsed and has been tepid since the early 1990’s. The end of real innovations has brought us to a stage of disruptive inventions which are cannibalistic in nature and as solutions to problems where none are required yet have a profound market impact and are reversing some of the positive traits built up in the past and are very destructive in their approach, affecting human conditioning not for the better but towards the worst.

Innovation and Growth

The wider implications of all innovations are strongly correlated between technological advances and the betterment of human life. For example, the Agricultural Revolution which occurred between 1750-1900 produced a transformation of human society brought about by the invention of the plough, making large-scale agriculture production possible. There was also a widespread replacement of manual labor by machines during the Industrial Revolution.

The Invention of the plough didn’t make the cows who plowed the fields obsolete but in fact, they had a positive impact where their old structural uses were enhanced and were made ready for other more efficient uses. Similarly, the impact of paper on record keeping, the compass for navigational purposes and the printing presses as an incremental innovation created, even more, uses for paper.

The Industrial Revolution too brought about much economic improvement for most people in Industrial Societies and many also enjoyed greater prosperity and improved conditions, modern industrial life also provided a constantly changing flood of new goods and services giving consumers more choices, which in turn provided employment opportunities for those displaced by the transformation of the agricultural societies.

Innovation can be classified as Breakthrough, Incremental, Game Changing and Disruptive.

Breakthrough Innovation:  Often referred to as “revolutionary science” because it involves a paradigm shift.  In this case, the problem is well defined, but the path to the solution is unclear, usually because those involved in the domain have hit a wall. Paper, Transistors and the discovery of the structure of many molecules including DNA are both good examples of breakthrough innovation.

Incremental Innovation: (sometimes referred to as sustaining innovation) uses existing forms as a starting point and either makes incremental improvements to something or some process or it reconfigures it so that it may serve some other purpose.

While Breakthrough and Incremental Innovations have a substantial impact in technological advancement and are directly correlated with the advancement of human conditioning and economy, Game Changing and Disruptive Innovations, on the other hand, are not well defined nor can be considered as a new scientific innovation but rather delivers the same repackaged in a different manner.

Game Changing Innovation: For Instance, Apple’s iPhone is not a new scientific Breakthrough Innovation but uses a combination of existing technologies such as the camera, the computer or the many components of the smartphone which were incorporated to create another phone, thereby making it just a game-changing innovation. The iPhone is also not an Incremental Innovation as that of printing press creating efficient enhancing uses of the paper, it did not make any of its components more efficient.

Disruptive Innovations: The term was defined and first analyzed by the American scholar Clayton M. Christensen and his collaborators beginning in 1995 and has been called the most influential business idea of the early 21st century and defines Disruptive Innovation as one that creates a new market by providing a different set of values, which ultimately (and unexpectedly) overtakes an existing market. In business, a Disruptive Innovation is an innovation that creates a new market and value network and eventually disrupts an existing market and value network, displacing established market-leading firms, products, and alliances.

Beyond business and economics, Disruptive Innovations can also be considered to disrupt complex systems, including economic and business-related aspects. The business environment of market leaders does not allow them to pursue Disruptive Innovations when they first arise, because they are not profitable enough at the start and because their development can take scarce resources away from sustaining innovations (which are needed to compete against current competition) and due to these innovations not clearly being defined, they may never be profitable and carry a much higher risk than every other type of innovation.

Real Breakthrough Innovations and growth go hand in hand. With computing came the internet in 1990’s and this is to be considered as the last bouts of real inventions the world has ever seen, Global Growth to has faltered in the 1990’s, first with the collapse of the Japanese Economy and the rise of China {cannibalistic}, this being not much different than Japan in the 1980’s. In fact, many of the trade issues we see today between China and USA are about the same of what we witnessed between Japan and USA then.

The innovations since 1990’s have mostly been computer related, which is to follow generalized sets of operations, called programs. These programs enable computers to perform an extremely wide range of tasks, which the newfound computing capabilities could perform well, first as a means of efficient record keeping, storage and with that effective collaboration of these informational data across multiple channels via the Internet.

Out of these new means of efficient storage and communication, Information Technology was born which in turn provided the ability for managers of such systems to identify repetitive and often redundant processes whose removal created new value chains of efficiency.

These new computing innovations while delivering informational competencies, their deployment was destructive in their approach and threatened every set of old established structural system, initially their value proposition was mainly positive as the benefits were visible in the overall bottom line of the organizations who deployed them in the form of enhanced productivity, service, efficiency and or sales, often referenced as Value Chains yet they were cannibalistic in their approaches.

While smartphones and related mobile technologies are recognized as flexible and powerful tools that, when used prudently, can augment human cognition, there is also a growing perception that habitual involvement with these devices has a negative and lasting impact on users’ ability to think, remember, pay attention, and regulate emotion.

As portable media devices, such as smartphones, have become an increasingly pervasive part of human lives, they have also become increasingly capable of supplementing, or even supplanting, various mental functions. With the capacity to be used as phonebooks, appointment calendars, internet portals, tip calculators, maps, gaming devices, and much more, smartphones seem capable of performing an almost limitless range of cognitive activities for humans and by doing so limiting humans own cognitive skills in a case of use it or lose it.

Moore’s Law, an observation of pattern recognition and Intuition.

As observed on Moore’s Law on the level of Transistors on integrated circuit chips, if human’s cognitive skills are in decay and reversing then surely this is not a good thing for society and this is reflective of the lack of jobs for today’s youth as they remain poorly equipped despite having participated in higher levels of education and the problem is not with the availability of jobs but the availability of the skills sets they have to offer.

In Business too, these informational technological systems have created havoc by deploying an arbitrage edge for themselves often at the costs of society. Value Creation is a concrete concept which none of these new technologies seem to deliver. The end of innovation in the 1990’s and the beginning of experimentation is at the root of our problems.


Further Reading
Animal Spirits, Bubbles, Mania’s and Market Peaks. http://ul3.com/FIl46
FOMO Signs of the Euphoric. The Bust is almost near! http://ul3.com/6K2S3
BITCOIN – A Fraud and Ponzi in a Disillusioned World: http://ul3.com/35fH1
The Greed: http://ul3.com/pUDgd
The Hope: http://ul3.com/CuC7d
The Ignorant, Zombies: http://ul3.com/PP8Ez
Perception vs Reality: http://ul3.com/UcYb1
Revolutionary Transformation Ongoing. http://ul3.com/kcYCE 
– Global Economic Collapse January 18, 2016

Demystifying Artificial Intelligence in 2018 – Daniel Mankani

April 25, 2018

Demystifying Artificial Intelligence.

Technology Companies have a historical tradition of misleading and making, hyped up claims at Cycle Highs and Guilable investors have an impecable track record to buy at market highs, when the truth emerges, the collapse presents itself next most and almost always.

In the last dot com collapse it was Sun Microsystems, Oracle and various others who made claims which were un-truthful to some extend with stories re-cycled in sophistication to such an extend that its possible to say, that they sold more than they deserved, they sold much more of their companies products and shares both to guilable companies and investors, all driven by fear of missing out and this became the year 2000 dot com highs.

Demystifying Technology in 2002

[embeddoc url=”https://idealbroker.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/technopreneurship-demystifing-technology-chapter-7-daniel-mankani.pdf” viewer=”google”]

demystifing-technology-chapter-7-daniel-mankani Copyright 2005. All Rights Reserved. Banking Technologies Asia MSC. Download

Just like today, Nvidia benefits over an economic activity that is not much more positive yielding, Nvidia has benefitted tremendously with the added usage of their graphic cards in the coin mining business which again in essense has very little added value when calculated with what its initial inputs costs are. The justification to seek is inputs vs outputs to determine overall beneficial efficiencies.

For more on this subject, see; BitCoin is a Fraud and Ponzi where we try to explain the cost benefit analysis of electricity costs versus value creation.

Today, the hype is on Artificial Intelligence and here at Banking Technologies Asia MSC we know a thing or two about artificial intelligence in the Financial markets, systems which we developed in the early 2000’s. We were also granted a government grant from the Malaysian Government to undertake such activities.

Multiple Artificial Intelligence in Forex Financial Markets Modelling,

[embeddoc url=”https://idealbroker.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/BTAMSC-Multiple-Artificial-Intelligence-in-Forex.pdf” viewer=”google”]

Copyright 2005. All Rights Reserved. Banking Technologies Asia MSC.

Data Analysis and Manipulative programs when systematically coded will also output a probabilistic viewpoint for exploitation. And the data inputted is garbage if selectively chosen to generate an outcome preferred, such actions will balantly corrupt the process, in the end whats outputted is just like garbage in, garbage out.

If, Cognitive bias prevails in the design of whichever AI system its bound to fail.

These thoughtful executing systems and the output of their probabilistic future trends are still Artificial in nature and the modes by which they can gather success are  probabilistically subjective. Success on the other hand is always one to be determined, however the edge exists due to knowing which future paths to take for best potentials.

That’s Artificial inteligence created.

Truth intelligence simply means, “I know more than you”. Think about it, if all of us knew the same things, that ain’t intelligence, its common knowledge, knowing more than the other is what is intelligence, so lets not have a misunderstanding to the defination of what Intelligence is?.

Caveat Emptor to all those chasing the moon.

 

BITCOIN – A Fraud and Ponzi in a Disillusioned World – Daniel Mankani

November 5, 2017

First things first lets understand this “The World is Disillusioned with Social Media Imaginary Lives” Ongoing Economic and Monetary Systems Transformation and there is indeed a whole lot of confusion on how the world tomorrow will evolve.

There are many questions and many responses to this but one thing for sure, its Bitcoin is not money nor its a stored value of an asset, it will never replace currency nor its has any of the attributes of Gold or Currency.

In the midst of all this Bitcoin has emerged as the best performer across various asset classes to which its compared against and now been told it will replace the means of transacting across borders and its value to continue increasing in a case of be it all and end all.

Human Greed knows no bounds especially so if its a subject out of disillusioned minds.

In the era of Fake News and Deregulated markets where accountability takes backstage coupled with a over educated under utilized millennium generation, Bitcoin is more of Fraud and a Ponzi and you may call it the revenge of the nerds.

Driven by fear of missing out and with various superior looking scientific yet false justification of “i know its better but I don’t know how, this has fueled Bitcoin’s Market Valuation and Price.

Its Greed and Fear Combined, Perception of disillusioned minds. A fraud of no other kind and a Ponzi at the same time.

In 2017 alone. Bitcoin meteoric rise has seen its total market value rise to over 100 billion dollars. Click to enlarge.

Bitcoins 100 Billion Dollar Valuation obtained in a shortest period of time. Click to enlarge.

For any asset to remain as a stored value and become one as a currency, it needs to have three key attributes without which its just another Fraud and a Ponzi at the same time.

 

It needs to have an UNDERLYING to give its stored value, It needs to have a UTILITY without which there is no demand to hold and lastly it needs to have LIQUIDITY which is non volatile.

 

Attributes which Bitcoin doesn’t have.

Underlying Resource: An underlying resource of some kind is necessary to give any derivative its value against which the derivative is bench marked, US Treasuries and even Fiat Currency for example have an underlying asset class to back them up, Government revenues and Taxes are the underlying for every currency where economic growth and monetary management defines the currency value.

Gold is the perfect hedge in an stagflation environment in which we are currently in and Bitcoin is not gold, It has no underlying of its own to  compare with to gold or to a currency and such perception is very much flawed.

It is wrong to say that Bitcoins Energy Consumption gives its underlying. It does not. Click to enlarge.

It is wrong to say that Bitcoins Energy Consumption gives its underlying. It does not.

Just cause someone found out a water front property and build on it an exclusive luxurious home, spending huge sums of money to make it beautiful and comparing its construction costs as input of value and then comparing it to the prices in demand and further speculating that if just a tiny bit of demand comes from there, the prices will escalate to those levels in a fancy of disillusioned minds.

You can’t compare an sparsely populated island in the pacific to that of one which has demand and it’s no matter on how much money you spend in making it luxurious, its a waste of effort and time.

Bitcoins hash rate, efficiency of mining determining input costs. Click to enlarge.

As the difficulty increases in mining of coins in order to make it a finite resource, more energy is consumed as efficiency drops and it then becomes scarce, this is the mathematical equation behind bitcoins miners and developers illusion, assuming that the input costs are part of the underlying, when its not.

Bitcoin Energy Consumption to determine underlying replacement costs. Click to enlarge.

Bitcoin uses more electricity than Uraguay, Kyrgyzstan, and Paraguay, yet what is the productivity use or value created out of this?

Bitcoin-Energy-Consumption-vs-Ranked-Countries. Click to enlarge.

Gold is a finite resource with utility which makes it of asset of stored value of no other kind.

Bitcoin-vs-Gold-Total-Annual-Energy-Consumption. Click to enlarge.

While it only takes 1.4 barrels of oil equivalent to produce an ounce of gold, it takes 10.1 barrels of oil equivalent to produce one Bitcoin.

Bitcoin-vs-Gold-Total-Energy-Consumed. Click to enlarge

Therefore as per the Maths.

Bitcoin-Production-Cost-Bevand-as per May-31-2017. Which today is closer to 1800 per coin generated and rising. Click to enlarge.

Hence, anyone investing in Bitcoins needs to understand the total dynamics behind them and understand which asset if behaving more like a bubble.

Bitcoin-vs-Gold-Cost-vs-Market-Price, Click to enlarge.

Now if we are in agreement on input costs and the underlying just been a waste of valuable energy resources to output a single coin, lets look for the second most important attribute of that of Its value creating UTILITY and you will find there is none except for illegal money laundering, and stashing of hidden wealth from which Bitcoin has benefited enormously from the chaos and collapses of various economies across the world.

In fact Bitcoin founding and origination is mired in Mystery with rumors of the founder himself owning a million coins and we have various reports from a couple of years ago where sites which accepted Bitcoins in its infancy were gifted hundreds and thousands of coins.

First things first, If you are investing in either Bitcoin or Gold, it’s important to understand which asset is behaving more like a bubble than the other and Bitcoin is clearly a bubble and a Ponzi which needs fake news to thrive on. 

Fake news, bitcoin is be it all and end all.

Bitcoin Flyer, more fake news.

Soon the USA Government

Bitcoin Bandit

Bitcoin will starve the banks fake news

Santa Claus is coming early this year.

Whipee its going up and up

 

bitcoin-money laundering activities.

Jimmy Loves Bitcoin. Jimmy needs to understand front running in unregulated markets leads to fraud and scam.

Listen to the audio file below to understand the meaning of front running, it happens a lot in bitcoin where the order fills are not in accordance to price. Exchanges and brokers are part of this scam, while people without any background and understanding are been suckered in.

More Fake News. Do you know Bitcoin is worth a Million and Why.

Bitcoin is still tiny, a sparsely populated island compared to the one in demand. If this is not scam than what is it?

More Fake News. Its going to a million and here is how?

For those who are unaware of a Ponzi which is also a bubble. Look up Tulip Mania.

Its unregulated and largely biased by the few who profit the most out of the high price. Caveat Emptor if you are invested.

Bitcoin needs a constant barrage of fake news and steady stream of new incomers into the scheme to justify high prices, if this is not a ponzi that what is? Its highly fraudulent by the misrepresentations occurring coupled with “Front Running” activities of brokers and exchanges in tandem with such activities.

Steve Wozniak misquoted, every statement is manipulated for higher price.

Bitcoin Fork. If Bitcoin is decentralized, then how come some minor parties, not majority, decided to create a fork and outputted a new coin? Isn’t decentralization on the basis that no single parties or minor group of parties members can control or direct outcome without the consent of the many.

Who benefits. The multiplicity of money. A revolution of no other kind.

                                 In Conclusion, Fools and their money part always fast.

Further Reading.

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute  | 
Working Paper No. 292
Download: https://dallasfedcm.ws.frb.org/-/media/Documents/institute/wpapers/2016/0292.pdf
Does Bitcoin Reveal New Information About Exchange
Rates and Financial Integration?
* | G. C. Pieters | Trinity University | December 2016

[embeddoc url=”https://idealbroker.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Feds-Dallas-Financial-Intergration.pdf” viewer=”google”]

Does Governance Have a Role in Pricing? | Cross-Country Evidence From Bitcoin Markets
Robert Viglione | Department of Finance | Darla Moore School of Business | University of South Carolina | September 2015

[embeddoc url=”https://idealbroker.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Governance-pricing-2013.pdf” viewer=”google”]

 

Digiconomist’s work on Bitcoin energy consumption.



How Many Barrels Of Oil Are Needed To Mine One Bitcoin,

 

Marc Bevand: Electricity consumption of Bitcoin: a market-based and technical analysis)

Caveat Emptor,

We are attending WEB SUMMIT 2017 in Lisbon.
Get to know us.

technopreneurship_Daniel-Mankani

Technopreneurship – The Successful Entrepreneur in the New Economy – Daniel Mankani. Published 2003. Pearson Education Asia – All rights, copyright reserved Daniel Mankani { ISBN0-13-046545-3 }

Chapter The Greed >>> Technopreneurship-The Successful Entrepreneur In The New Economy.

LINKS
Disclaimer. http://ul3.com/L30qH
Back to the Beginning. http://ul3.com/aeVUG
BTAMSC – http://ul3.com/vAqdH
The Greed: http://ul3.com/pUDgd
The Hope: http://ul3.com/CuC7d
The Ignorant, Zombies: http://ul3.com/PP8Ez
Perception vs Reality: http://ul3.com/UcYb1
History: http://ul3.com/1rCFA
Chart Patterns: http://ul3.com/54VLV
Introduction to Technical Analysis. http://ul3.com/kcYCE

Writings.
INTRODUCTION TO FINANCIAL MARKETS & TRADING OPPORTUNITIES IN COMMODITY, CURRENCY, & FINANCIAL FUTURES. http://ul3.com/dAFWj
Revolutionary Transformation Ongoing. http://ul3.com/kcYCE
– Global Economic Collapse January 18, 2016


Call it a Revolution, If you will. A fightback is on the cards. Daniel Mankani

October 22, 2017

There are substantial issues on hand that are pressing, complacency of no other kind, talent development and human management needs to pick up speed and efficiency or there will be chaos.

Call it a Revolution, if you will. Human Talent, Tech Development needs efficiency and speed to succeed – Daniel Mankani

Please allow me to explain.

In 2003, when we launched our first book, which is a classical story of the initial days of the Internet, whose history, is very important we document and we did, outlying the dot com collapse, right up to the date it peaked and its subsequent years and challenges thereafter. Those were indeed very harsh times that followed and the peak and its bust was a surprise to many, governments, venture capitalist, the general public, even the smartest guys like us, all were suckered into it at the same time.  The Outcome of which is Technopreneurship, the successful entrepreneur in the new economy. today, we wish we paid more attention to the chapter 15; “Role for Society in technopreneurship development.”

Today, its no different.

The time has once again arrived where we are witnessing the secondary main peak of euphoria and complacency and all those fears highlighted in our first book are coming back to haunt us. What it takes to be a successful entrepreneur, was not written by an academic but as a trade book, with real life experiences on how to start up your own internet venture and be successful. Experience has taught us there is no other short cuts from hard / smart work, its only via practicing and failing long enough that open’s up the real knowledge to succeeding.

Automation is picking up speed and there is a good reason behind this, but before we get to this, lets understand what this automation is really doing, its programming the human mind into becoming zombies. There is a huge risk of mental imbalance occurring across the planet and maybe its time for us to realize that the programs only have one purpose, which is to manipulate minds.

Most people only visit ten websites max, day in and day out and its these top ten websites which rake in most of the traffic whilst others have to pay a fee to get access to this traffic. Hence The Gatekeepers. The rest of the treasure trove of knowledge buried much below but many neither have the time, motivation of discipline to explore.

Just look at google, couple of guys wiring together hundreds of machines and building an index, then offering that index as a search engine is fine.

Once they go public, see what happens next.

They become gatekeepers in other words wanting to control everything. The earlier mission statement of Don’t be Evil doesn’t exist.

What was the mission of Facebook, lets be clear and honest about this? Wasn’t it about controlling the human mind and make a zombie out of them and wasn’t it build by a secret organization, that is part of the CIA, NSA.

Can anyone deny this please?

Rumors of facebook been a US Government Surveillance tool made China to create their own. Today, governments are reading everything, the internet is live connected, your devices are live connected, your location known at any given time. You gave them the keys to everything, your privacy doesn’t exist and if you have a camera in your device and a backdoor to the root, then you gave them your view of you in your bathroom as well. How crazy can this be?

Although these are the largest tech companies and have created value on their own in various ways for communities, its their next source of activities is which is causing more mental harm by trying to control thought via perception, turning many into zombies like a swarm of bees of common thought into a collective action for more.

Ideology has great power to convert your best friends into enemies. countries fall and kingdoms disappear when ideologies control human minds. This trend is rapidly increasingly and we see substantial challenges and deterioration in every aspect of human life and economy.

Living in imaginary illusionary lives on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and various online communities, enhancing self ego which begets bigger ego’s, the smallest people have the greatest need to express their validity but real life is totally different and yet it looks so real, devolving into a public spat’s,  more common than anytime before and once it turns ugly, heading down hill pretty past, exposing many things that were never known before.

Everyone is affected. People are losing their minds and going off balance very fast, once this happens, chaos reigns next without knowing how and what caused it in the first place.

Where is the productive personalities that we all want to see and be?, Where is the value creating technology revolution delivering and enhancing of processes and the need to be more productive that we can be. It is after all one life and one shot at it. Instead of what we have is totally unproductive and sometimes a complete wasteful life.

Human evolution has to evolve with its consciousness, the necessities of understanding and self purpose.

Artificial Intelligence by itself has no intelligence on its own, what it rather is, is a set of algorithmic codes running a indexing numbering system based upon which a second set of instructions are undertaken, a simplest form to understand Artificial Intelligence is to realize that its a set of data, possibly even personal to you, based upon which recommendations are made towards you.

A simplest example on how it works on you, is per-determining and recommending based on your past behavior.

Have you ever seen, “We think you may be interested in the following article” or “This may be of interest to you.”, These recommendations are AI.

To reiterate once again, Artificial Intelligence is not intelligence at all, but its based on data and probabilities. For example, if you wanted to create a automated bot of yourself, you will first create a database with a set of data within and create a relationship with queries and give them a ranking of some form based on those rankings, the next outcome is determined, Now you can refer to these as some sort of intelligence, but this is no match to the intelligence of the human mind.

The Internet is semantic and everything online is relating to language or logic in some form, these relationships determine activities for a program to undertake and execute but none of this is rocket science, yet can be driven towards own self interest or greater good for those who are in the know. The concern is the state of affairs for many of those who don’t even know, they are been programmed. Its the distortion of such behaviors that the problem, we are concerned about.

Today, the entire world is invested in the FAANG’S and we don’t think it will always be like this. There will be a fightback from Small Medium Enterprises and from New Technopreneurs, its just impossible that a winners of today are winners of tomorrow as well. Never has been never will be.

The fight back will come and it will take market share off the current established structures, Call it a Revolution, if you will.

FAANG’s | {Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Alphabet’s Google}

We are attending WEB SUMMIT 2017 in Lisbon.
Get to know us.

technopreneurship_Daniel-Mankani

Technopreneurship – The Successful Entrepreneur in the New Economy – Daniel Mankani. Published 2003. Pearson Education Asia – All rights, copyright reserved Daniel Mankani { ISBN0-13-046545-3 }

Chapter The (False) Hope >>> Technopreneurship-The Successful Entrepreneur In The New Economy.

LINKS
Disclaimer. http://ul3.com/L30qH
Back to the Beginning. http://ul3.com/aeVUG
BTAMSC – http://ul3.com/vAqdH
The Greed: http://ul3.com/pUDgd
The Hope: http://ul3.com/CuC7d
The Ignorant, Zombies: http://ul3.com/PP8Ez
Perception vs Reality: http://ul3.com/UcYb1
History: http://ul3.com/1rCFA
Chart Patterns: http://ul3.com/54VLV
Introduction to Technical Analysis. http://ul3.com/kcYCE

Writings.
INTRODUCTION TO FINANCIAL MARKETS & TRADING OPPORTUNITIES IN COMMODITY, CURRENCY, & FINANCIAL FUTURES. http://ul3.com/dAFWj
Revolutionary Transformation Ongoing. http://ul3.com/kcYCE
– Global Economic Collapse January 18, 2016


The Fear

April 9, 2017

As outlined in my earlier chapters, there are phrases / cycles that occur concurrently, its no matter, who is the king or the fool, the cycles repeat. And the repeat, they will – Daniel Mankani.

Update: 9th April 2017; The events of the past week are noteworthy, we have long called for collapse of the American Dream. The empire is on the last grasp of air, like a fish, who fights, just before it dies. Dead Cat Bounce another idiom for the markets. Two sets of fundamental thoughts, that dynamically changed this past week and not a twist, but a complete turn.

Mr Donald Trump, President of the United States of America flip flopped from his America First Policy, a flawed policy that he has in the first place, but nevertheless, this got him elected. He was a the better devil then, but now, he too has changed, from all media reports, dug from Snapwire.com | He looks like the biggest fool.

Two sets of Fundamental data sets changed last week.  Once again: not a twist, but a complete turn. Wow, what a fool, we welcomed, this is the thought of everyone, who voted for him,

1) First; President Trump flip flopped on his America First Policy, no matter how flawed, the white folks in Alabama and rest place bought this. Am not sure, what prosperity, that would have brought America, dropping to the levels of China, a slave factory to the world, was Trumps promise to America. Mr Trump during his election campaign, outlined, all these never ending wars, were not in America’s Interest. His flip flop, basically shows, what the bankruptcy king and the cards he holds. Impulse and desperation are the better words for an ignorant fool, He has the qualities, of the biggest fool.

2) The market never turns, till the greatest fool of all is long!. The second fundamental change was the Federal Reserve Minutes, In which the Federal Reserve outlined, the feds officials were indeed very hawkish, yet, warning of high elevated stock prices and the threats created by the bubble economy. Truth be told,. the Americans are morally and financially bankrupt. Get over this folks. No body owes anyone a living. You are on your own. That’s where we are.  – Daniel Mankani, Author, Dynamictrader – Trading for a living.

Before this, lets continue our story, What comes after Hope, is fear. The story of cycles once again repeats. From My book, the chapter, THE FEAR..

THE FEAR { Events that unfolded after the dot com bust of 2000 }


All in a matter of time, sentiments had been changed, Investors who once bet on winners of tomorrow, now viewed their investments as businesses with little potential and wondered about their investments viability, all this made them to wonder how they were sucked to believe in companies which were little more than an actual dream and what had made them to part with hard earned investments.

One by one, Audits were called on companies and this had exposed many incidents of inappropriate accounting practices. One such case was that of ENRON whose shareholders saw their investment value turn to zero from a corporation who commanded over a couple of billion dollars in market valuation a few months ago.

Similarly Grow Big Fast companies and those with claims of technology revolution of tomorrow were now been checked. Everyone was been questioned and no single organization was spared.

The media attempted to make sense of it all and began turning and exposing their once darling companies who began to look shackled from the inside, one by one they brought them to the public courts, where the markets started to decide their fates.

FEB 01 2002 / MSNBC reports how the Mississippi giant WORLDCOM has done nothing with public money except buy over other phone companies, this is been done over the last 19 years with over $100 billion of investors money over the course of the 1990s, this $100 billion Mont Blanc of waste has not been able to generate a single dime of net new cash for the business.

 

Even more so, the companies that were put to check, their auditors and accountants too were not been spared. The Investor were angry and as the information got exposed further, their emotions were now turning to fear. They realised that they couldn’t trust anyone, anymore and specially after the Enron debacle where the auditors and accountants of the company had a moral responsibility to keep management in check and protect investors interest, but in fact they had probably a role to play, to sucker the public investor.

In the case of Enron, it was uncovered that Anderson consulting had failed to exercise their responsibilities as the auditors of Enron and was in the process of been indicted by the US government on charges of obstruction of Justice, it was also further noted that Anderson employees were responsible for shredding important documents that could throw light on the entire Enron saga and the reasons behind its collapse.

All this brought struck more fear in the hearts of the corporate giants and Anderson who was one of the world top five accounting firm lost almost all of its clients to rival companies and was on the brink of bankruptcy itself, all this occurred from Top five to ground zero in a matter of months.

The free lunch was over and the fearful phrase had begun. Venture Capitalists, Governments, Investors and employees were now asking questions and they were more than serious than ever.

The tides had changed and the pressure was on for performance and growth in terms of real revenues. Once acclaimed Silicon Valley Venture capitalists were now been brushed aside, as their greed had got the better of them and with their downfall, came the fall of rookie VC firms, who had joined them on the move to the upside.

Their losses had tripled and survival demanded writing off portfolio companies, companies that were unable to provide decent returns (+1000%) that they had once hoped for. One by one they squared off their positions and now wondered about basic survival.

Like a bear in hibernation, they survived on capital management fees and turned themselves into consultants, offering their services to governments or anyone else who was interested in the venture capital business.

The smarter ones bought back their companies remaining shares and took full operational control of their portfolio companies, while some did so to take control of the excess cash flow in those firms, others reckoned that they had a better chance to turn around the situation and fight the game till the last.

It was a time where been a public company became an unnecessary burden, issues of corporate reporting, due diligence and public demand for better performance was just too much of a hassle for the management of these firms, and such firms chose to de-listi being a public company and returning whatever shareholders balance capital was left.

Then Suddenly with a a twist, it seemed like a bad economy, a falling stock market, tough business conditions and tighter consumer spending was just not enough and something greater was required, On September 2001, Terrorist attacked The World Trade Centre building in New York, crashing the huge 110 storey building with jumbo jets, the terror attack was the single greatest attempt of war on free America in History and this made stock markets to plunge everywhere driving fear greater into consumers, investors and everyone else hearts.

This event further accelerated the bearish sentiments in the markets and the game of valuations had now really turned bad, technology was questioned and its benefits and build up were doubted.

The Enron saga had by now fueled investigations into many companies, technology related as well as traditional, companies such as Andersen, Martha Steward, WorldCom and Adelphia were the few that begun to expose the tip of a greedy iceberg of the dot com rush.

Technology bullish Governments who had had invested alongside with VC’s firms into technology and into buildup of heavy infrastructure projects replicating Silicon Valley in their back yards were starting to awaken by their losses.

Not just with their losses, Governments had other more issues to worry about as well, for they had seen capital been sucked out of the economy, for their taxes and collections were not the same anymore and the wealth effect had died down. In fact the entire economy was suffering and most importantly the internet revolution had given everyone this great dream of success, which upon not been fulfilled, it was creating a negative effect in the minds of workers and driving productivity down.

Companies scaled off workers and trimmed off the excesses for their paths towards profitability, National unemployment rate inched higher and in a classic chained event scenario, it had affected everyone.

For the government, if they were a company, it could have been easier going into liquidation, but for them they were left with very little choices but to continue investing and as money dried up from all sources, the only ones left were government funds whose agenda was set to stimulate the economy by spending more money and by building up new age enterprises.

The motivation for them was simple, diversify from previous core revenues streams as reliance on some form of manufacturer, physical goods exporter or old economy corporation may in the new economy not be sufficient and shifting into technology sectors was strong, for they had already seen and identified its benefits.

The only troubling question is ‘Are we ready for Technology as we know Technology is ready for us’. There are many good technology companies out there today and most of them are deep repentance, be it good or bad, the key now for most was to identify the real from the fake and choose from the survivors of today as the winners of tomorrow.

The bust now has already exposed salesmen’s who were disguised as technopreneurs and for their own shame, they had shamed the name of all. Their objective was simply profit, their objective was personal gain, for they had looked to capitalize on the saying, every day a fool is born and they said the market doesn’t peak till the greatest fool of all has bought.

A state of fear had grasped the economy. People, processes and products were becoming obsolete. Businesses were seeing their revenues disappear and large corporations are in a deep trouble, for them they are unable to understand what used to work before and why doesn’t that work anymore. They wonder why we could grow year on year before and why it is different this time around.

With this fear, everyone is restructuring and learning and with this they have derived the motivation and strength to take risks and change. It was fear in its earlier days for Israel that that to become a powerful force in the middle east from its humbler beginnings, similarly it was fear which made Singapore a technologically advanced and prosperous country greater than their parents Malaysia and this time around it is again fear that is creating the whole new wave of opportunities, that only a few will ever envision and profit from.

For Technopreneurs, they were many, many were indeed hopefuls, hoping for the market to turn so that their investors and companies could go public, the truth was they were still hoping for a free public lunch, while the window opportunity for it had long been closed.
Previous Chapter; The Hope And; what comes next; is FEAR!

technopreneurship_Daniel-Mankani

Technopreneurship – The Successful Entrepreneur in the New Economy – Daniel Mankani. Published 2003. Pearson Education Asia – All rights, copyright reserved Daniel Mankani { ISBN0-13-046545-3 }

Chapter The (False) Hope >>> Technopreneurship-The Successful Entrepreneur In The New Economy.

LINKS
Disclaimer. http://ul3.com/L30qH
Back to the Beginning. http://ul3.com/aeVUG
BTAMSC – http://ul3.com/vAqdH
The Greed: http://ul3.com/pUDgd
The Hope: http://ul3.com/CuC7d
The Ignorant, Zombies: http://ul3.com/PP8Ez
History: http://ul3.com/1rCFA
Chart Patterns: http://ul3.com/54VLV
Introduction to Technical Analysis. http://ul3.com/kcYCE

Writings.
INTRODUCTION TO FINANCIAL MARKETS & TRADING OPPORTUNITIES IN COMMODITY, CURRENCY, & FINANCIAL FUTURES. http://ul3.com/dAFWj
Revolutionary Transformation Ongoing. http://ul3.com/kcYCE
– Global Economic Collapse  January 18, 2016


And Why;
Technopreneurship Development – Daniel Mankani. http://ul3.com/kcYCE
– Published Sep 2003. Pearson Education Asia

The Hope.

January 23, 2017


The Hope

Hope plays an important part in our expectation, for hundreds of years mankind has behaved and reacted in a peculiar manner, once things turn sour, we tend to hope and pray for things to get better. Regardless of the situation, hope gives us the strength to hang on and look forward, it makes us to expect the impossible, it tells us a change of luck or a miracle may come our way saving us from these troubled times.

When one starts to leaves things on luck of chance, fate and begins to believe things will get better, then it’s a condition of hope and hope is your worst enemy when you are trading the markets and you are losing, cause hope may only make matters worse.

A condition of hope prevailed on the markets, they had started heading down, but a state of denial supported investors to continue their beliefs and investments on the way down.

Market reports, the media and everything else suggested a correction was underway and Financial Guru’s were on TV, advising everyone that a correction is underway and in no manner this should be read as a all-out collapse of the Internet Sector.

After all the markets had continued to gain year on year for the last decade and corrections then were ideally an opportunity to buy more stock, invest in new ventures and leverage on the lower prices.

The hope was the Feds who had supported previous down moves would ensure that the markets were tuned to the upside for ever, after all a prosperous investing crowd was good for the economy.

With this Investors continued to pour capital into private equity deals and large-scale public companies found valuations cheap to diversify their investments and create new revenue streams for their shareholders.

As the public companies struggled to build their own revenues, their diversification plans provided them with the hope of growth in technology, as technology and the Internet are here to stay and a switch now could help them save the day.

The real problem for the old economy companies was, the supply of goods and services they provided, they had either gone out of fashion or were not in demand anymore and their continuous supply was constantly depressing prices further and creating a deflationary environment in the economy where prices are headed only one way. Lower!

Most old economy companies took this opportunity of lowered equity valuations to diversify into technology, as technology companies continued to remain the darling for most investors and even on the way down, they constantly craved for more.

For the old economy companies this provided an ideal opportunity to sell out and revive defunct companies which had lost an interest with Investors, all they had to add was a good plan worth exploring, huge revenue projections and a management team which had some track record providing the basis for execution.

The problem was not many of these late stage aspiring technology companies understood much about technology or were innovative in any manner, they also hardly understood what had been created and delivered by many by most successful technopreneurs.

A phrase of Investing on concepts prevailed and even after six months since the March 2000 Nasdaq bust, capital could still be raised on ideas of innovation but it was starting to get difficult. Public companies armed with public money continued to soak up private technology companies that provided them with basis of justifications on their own corporate revenues.

Companies in debt, companies with cash flow issues and companies in general who were unable to secure capital via traditional means, one by one realized the opportunity of tapping capital from the stock markets since regulations and listing requirements were been eased. They changed their names, added a dot com, venture, or an “I’ and “e” to their names, jazzed up their offices and headed towards the public who were happy as long as they could pass on theirs buck to someone else. .

Not realizing the real game and noticing the fame. Wealth was been created on the basis of valuations. The public, governments and everyone else applauded technology companies and continued to create an environment deemed perfect for technopreneurs to set up operations.

Successful technopreneur’s, businessmen, and many others who were able to access billion dollar valuations and capital soon joined the bandwagon of setting up incubation companies. They were no longer satisfied with getting a piece of public listed companies and instead wanting to get closer to the action, incubation firms were springing up everywhere.

Traditional companies with experiences in construction and developments, used their excesses warehouses as incubation spaces, companies who had more office space then they could use, converted them into lab where startups could be breed and companies / individuals with nothing much to offer, went around as consultants offering strategic advice to the technopreneur in exchange for equity.

These were indeed the final days, but hope continued for technology and rasing  capital became increasingly difficult. Believers of the stock market continued to hope for a turnaround in the stock market and continued to leverage on the way down. With money becaming increasingly hard to raise from stock sales, most turned to trading services and products for equity, for the dot com, its equity was still in demand, although not cash, but for services and those who accepted such deals, their hope was the value of todays equity is still discounted in comparison to future potential. At least this was the hope for everyone.

With the Nasdaq peak in place and constant falling market prices, some venture capital firms and institutional investors were among the first few to realise the changing tides and started to quickly look for alternatives to let go their babies in their portfolio’s.

Some looked for suckers in the financial times for names listed on the stock market, while others were quick to realize the tides had changed and pushed their start-ups for market share instead of revenues and a phrase of consolidation prevailed.

Technology companies merged and consolidated to produce the largest media house, largest data storage company and largest companies of all sort, for it looked good for the public markets, but all the consolidation and expansion required capital and the dollars had already been spend before even a single dime was made.

For there was hope and a sucker in the role of an Individual investor in the public markets and such was their hope, that they invested their life savings on expectations of capital returns a hundred fold.

While some had parted with their life long savings betting on technology, others had simply bet and lost their careers, although stable , they staked it for the fame that came with being into technology. Presidents, ceo’s, manager’s and many had simply resigned form their daily routines, all wanting to take their shot at technology and Internet ventures.

Some quit to setup the next big thing, while others were simply wanting to get out of the boring careers, the Internet had offered everyone something, for some it was cash, for others fame and for the rest a chance to prove their inherent entrepreneurial qualities of Innovation.  The career changes that were occurring were indeed a very daring move for anyone, but all the basis of justification for doing so were there, the media had continued to trump success of technopreneurs and stories were abound of individuals risking their careers, marriages and whatever else to ante up in technology on this down move.

Stories were abound of how technology had changed the course of our life’s and how a simple farmer was able to boost productivity with the miracles created by technology, it was a daily occurrence in the local papers to read about how technology combined with biology were creating tissues to save mankind from mortality and how technology had boosted efficiency in the workplace.

But in all this the lesson was clear, time was short and plenty many hopefuls were waiting at the door, hoping to cash out of their tech investments, little did they know that the door had already closed.

With the pressure mounting and as the markets fell, investor’s appetite gradually disappeared and those who had already invested, started to feel the pain and complained, asking questions on how could they have invested in companies which looked so fantastic and yet had no revenues to prove their claims and for the companies who had no revenues, they justified by suggesting their innovation was unique and since so, it requires more capital to reach out to the masses, it requires more capital for education, marketing and in some cases completing product development.

With the markets collapsing, the downfall had squeezed all capital from the markets, investors and companies both were now looking for someone to blame their folly upon, as they both genuinely believed they had become part of a larger conspiracy theory, they increasingly started to look elsewhere to point their blame and claim for their pains.

For technopreneurs, they blamed their venture capital companies for not parting them with any more capital to burn, since it was the venture capital companies who originally preached them the ideas of developing market share instead of revenues, they had told their start-up’s to continue building market share via means of exposure and not focus on revenues, since a company with a greater exposure will be able to command higher premiums on the stock market.

The VC’s had advised their start-ups to execute the “GBF” strategy and to grow big fast and build up their first mover advantages, thinking this would allow the start-up to command significant market share first and then considerable amounts of revenues shall follow, a strategy also deployed by now defunct webvan and even used by Amazon.com in its earlier years.

Amazon.com and Webvan both companies famous for “GBF” strategy relied heavily on access of capital from the public markets and had a powerful affliction that have since killed many dot com’s as well as traditional companies.

GBF is a captivating idea for management, even after its predicament often called for the purchase of assets or businesses that could add value to the overall bottom line of an organization.

Webvan picked up a range of warehouses across America, networked by pickup trucks driven by courteous drivers and hoped for customer satisfaction from lowered prices and an efficient delivery system, Similarly for Amazon, who because of its bulk purchasing power and country wide supply chain hoped that they could provide customers with an overall value proposition.

Once the doors were closed, additional fund raising became extremely difficult and companies depending on them were quickly to feel the pain first, in fact GBF is a very capital-intensive business. Cut off the capital and these companies fall in trouble.

The hope for many was that the Bull Run in the public markets would continue and provide for additional capital as and when required. Corporate America and its efficient management teams had become complacent due to the excess liquidity that was once available and with the bubble now bust, the test of the best was on the cards. The VC’s who once preached first mover advantage now started to learn first mover also is the one to to first hit deal stand woes.

Customers, Investors, employees and partners were now getting upset and were losing their patience, they wanted to know what was happening to their companies, their investments they had made, the products they had purchased and on the companies that were dealing with.

With their loss now turning into Anger, they first turned their attention to the Federal Reserve Chairman, Mr Allan Greenspan for not doing enough and with questions why the federal reserve was slow in reviving the economy and couldn’t the FEDS use a miracle pill to make all the pain go away similarly to the manner the FEDS had acted in the past.

In one of the occasional state of the union address, when the Federal Board met with the government to discuss on going’s issues in the economy, one Senator took the opportunity to question the chairman, asking him, on whether he the Fed Chairman was responsible for the market fallout as he chose to  raising interest rates during a time where economic growth was in question and by doing so the FEDS had drained the much required liquidity out of the system and made capital inaccessible for companies who depended on it for growth.

The senator like many others was feeling the pain from the fall in stock prices and when people feel the pain they often fail to remember the good times they had enjoyed due to the stock market rise over the last decade.

Everyone suddenly became upset with the Feds as this time around even actions of the FEDS had failed and the dot com crash was slowly exposing major flaws in the system. The FEDS even after aggressively cutting interest rates failed to provide any boost in stock market prices as well as a boost in lenders willing to borrow money. The financial markets and system was slowly beginning to get into a depression.

With little recourse, Investors started closely examining their portfolio companies, trying to find what was the real issue behind the lowered valuations and falling prices, they were searching now for a solution that would assist them in recovering part of the lost capital and provided them with some sort of justification for their folly.

They then turned towards Investment Bankers, Investment Houses and Market Analyst who had prided themselves with being one of the best money managers and analyst of all times, just before the crash. After all these could be the people who had benefited by selling stock to the public, they reckoned and these were the same people who had made bullish claims of Internet stocks that could never perform, their anger turned towards investment bankers for the reason that Investment bankers and  their respective houses could have been working in tandem to push stock to the public suckers, knowing that now they had been suckered, they questioned practices of professionalism in organizations as such.

Lawsuits flew left, right and center against merchant bankers, their analysts and all those who had misled the public into buying now worthless technology companies.

In all of this, there was some hope that if someone could be found guilty then at least part of the lost capital could be recovered, Little did they know, billions had already been lost and the worst ride was only beginning, The danger was too many companies had pulled the tricks on investors and one by one they were been exposed by the public and in doing so they were only eroding further value off the stock market, which they wanted to recover.

For Technopreneurs, they were many, many were indeed hopefuls, hoping for the market to turn so that their investors and companies could go public, the truth was they were still hoping for a free public lunch while the window opportunity for it had long been closed.

technopreneurship_Daniel-Mankani

Technopreneurship – The Successful Entrepreneur in the New Economy – Daniel Mankani. Published 2003. Pearson Education Asia – All rights, copyright reserved Daniel Mankani { ISBN0-13-046545-3 }

Chapter The (False) Hope >>> Technopreneurship-The Successful Entrepreneur In The New Economy.

LINKS
Disclaimer. http://ul3.com/L30qH
Back to the Beginning. http://ul3.com/aeVUG
BTAMSC – http://ul3.com/vAqdH
The Greed: http://ul3.com/pUDgd
The Ignorant, Zombies: http://ul3.com/PP8Ez
History: http://ul3.com/1rCFA
Chart Patterns: http://ul3.com/54VLV
Introduction to Technical Analysis. http://ul3.com/kcYCE

Writings.
INTRODUCTION TO FINANCIAL MARKETS & TRADING OPPORTUNITIES IN COMMODITY, CURRENCY, & FINANCIAL FUTURES. http://ul3.com/dAFWj
Revolutionary Transformation Ongoing. http://ul3.com/kcYCE
– Global Economic Collapse  January 18, 2016


And Why;
Technopreneurship Development – Daniel Mankani. http://ul3.com/kcYCE
– Published Sep 2003. Pearson Education Asia

Perception vs Reality

January 22, 2017

Perception of the Mind. Daniel Mankani.

Perception of the mind, no one can answer. What is wrong or right?, What is the right way forward, No one can tell you?. Is it not?

What you know, is due to some external influences, some experiences of strong emotion of the past, deeply ingrained, which drives your next perception, idea or thought, in the direction, towards the direction, of your own self made fantasy, creation or concept, which was in someway, important to know, and impact, which came about or budded up from that, deeply ingrained emotional impact, that you somehow experienced, and this became, your first budding memory of pain and brought about fear.

While, me too am experiencing an enlightening moment, on this subject, me too am searching, for the definite answer, me too, am driven by thoughts of perception and reality, experiences, which too, came from somewhere.

Crooks of every kind, manipulators of the human mind.

I would also like to believe that, this is my own creation and i am a genius, too.

Look, see, do like me. Truth is; this knowledge, that I have recently acquired, is also a creation of my recent developments.

Its all an influence from somewhere, somewhere external.

There are no coincidences, or luck by chance, its strategic. And as an analyst, its one’s task to question everything.

And as a trader, we trade only in the direction of the trend. if last bar is up?. Are you long or short, on the current bar? Are you against the trend? or in favour of the cycle?.

What is your longer term objective? Where do you think, its heading?, Where is your STOP?

Do you have trades on the trend or against it?
And, Why?

The game of Speculation; is a constant battle of perception vs reality.

Trade the path of least resistance is the cardinal rule always, what happened past, is likely to follow, to continue, amid some setbacks, on the journey, observe the momentum, to tell you, when it bends. Human Behaviour is ingrained, markets don’t change, till human’s do.

Know the BEAST!. If you are looking for hocus pocus, then its hope playing out ON you,

know HOPE, cause that is what 2017 will bring. 2017 will remove the illusion of authority, the illusion of economic recovery, which then begets, a revolutionary, creative destructive move to the downside. Starting anytime, just about now.

 

A quant speaks.

January 15, 2017

a quant speaks.

You have to change for the situation to change.
Inquiry | Understand Karma.

Just like success can be programmed, failures too, are running a program, which in affect is also a program, which exhibits success.

If you are repeating failing, then the cause is no one, but you, as you suffer from the affects of failure, due to your repetitive behaviour, if so, you can also be programmed to counteract those affects, to output the desired behaviour.

As a data analyst, this will make you, understand, that with the data presented, there is no coincidences, everything is well programmed, it’s just the data lying stale there, giving us our very own understanding, of what that is.

It also tells us, if yesterday is the same as today, then tomorrow will be the same, cause human behavior is the hardest to change.

Introduction to TECHNICAL ANALYSIS.

These human behaviours, repeatedly provides us with trends, outputted at various sites of BTAMSC.

This is what we do, at banking technologies Asia. We study data, data that is clean, data that is not obtained, but gathered, studying human behavior, in current form and the past, and we store this data, and call this dataset1 {history}.

On any single day, we analyse practically everything, gathered in real time, these bots of ours, operate like spiders, they dive deep into the web, to collect everything. To know everything, and archive it into history.

We keep track of the news, via snapwire.com.

To analyse to {dataset1}, we add another sets of new data into it, our bots gather and keep track of comments on blogs and all forms of social media, and we store these as {dataset2} as name them as feelings, or thoughts.

With this new data, a new preservative is added into the spectrum, to identify, his reality, vis perception, we scrub the two datasets, against each other.

We get a pattern. A pattern of truth.

Introduction to Chart Paterns.

Most importantly, we get to develop, predictive technology, intelligence is been gathered on our system, by giving us the predicative capability, of determining the next probable outcome, with the relative degree of safety, of potential pitfalls, challenges that may arise, in the fulfillment of the most probable outcome and what if; how; and other potentially required, questions, can be outputted from such a system. The most probable trends, our current condition of inquiry, are again outputted for scrubbing, at  http://dynamictrader.com And http://dynamictrader.org, sites we operate since 1998/-.

As such, we run multiple tools of information gathering systems and run them against each other, to determine the path of most probable outcome, this is a trend, that we are attempting to identify, the path of least resistance.

Analysis is a subject of repeated inquiry, that is what it is. The questioning and repeated inquiry, of what if, why, and every such question is the subject of such inquiry, then this is what is outputted, its called Intelligence, a state of {I Know more than you.}.

We then add into {another dataset3} , we call this economy. We track financial data, of all nature.(p)

Financial s Comparison Analysis.

KINDLY ACKNOWLEDGE THIS SITES DISCLAIMER of Dynamictrader before proceeding to any of its archived content. Our permission of granting you access, is depended and subjective based upon your agreement, to all our site terms and conditions, privacy and copyright terms and respective risk disclaimers. of which, you relieve us against any liabilities now or in the future, from the use and access of information, which are raw in nature in many cases, and you may suffer losses beyond your comprehension, leading to even cause of death, if you are walking across the street in deep confusion or doubt. 

INTRODUCTION TO FINANCIAL MARKETS & TRADING OPPORTUNITIES IN COMMODITY, CURRENCY, & FINANCIAL FUTURES – Archived on: Jan 2, 1995 | http://ul3.com/dAFWj  | http://dynamictrader.org/financial-markets-trading-opportunities-commodity-currency-financial-futures/

We believe in is a world without borders. A world without barriers and monopolies protecting the inefficient are been questioned. The days of segregation are behind us. Talent remains global and capital follows it. Redundant processes once identified become obsolete. Value creation meets success. Technology deployment demands speed!. Its Human Evolution not Revolution. Will you sink or swim?.

Progressively Evolve and aggregate extensible success, deploy existing resources and reinvent. Strategic deployment and high standards delivers value to your customers, our customers!. To redefine processes, Ask BTAMSC, Give us a Challenge!.  As Quants, Data is our best friend, without bias and corruption, we identify the inefficient and make them obsolete. For a Better World! Full of Love. For you, for us and our Lovely Planet.

BTAMSC is currently seeking partners to value add in the following joint ventures. Cloud based solution upload.asia, SocialNetwork platform planetic.com, Alternative News Media, snapwire.com, P2P+Merchant Solutions payments.asia, Virtual and Social Gifting redpacket.com, Ebooks Magazine Store emagbook.com, Expats community site, escapeartist.in, Free online educational platform elearningweb.com and virtual office platform keyteams.com.

Bidlease.com – Joint Venture Opportunities.

Learn more about our company, here; http://banktech.net

Our data is not for sale. For fear of corruption and bias.
We practically have no clients, want no clients.
We seek value adding, performance driven, systematically executing; joint venture partners.

Venture capital is available, meeting such criteria.

Our Services. We can help you;
ReInvent
ReInvent the Physical Presence with a Tasks Based Efficient Digital Office.

ReStructure
Restructure skills and resources assets globally with BTAMSC start to end solutions.

ReAlign
ReAlign resources to specific tasks, objectives to meet goals, outlined in milestones.

RePresent
RePresent in various online channels and grow to your full potential.


LINKS
Disclaimer. http://ul3.com/L30qH
Back to the Beginning. http://ul3.com/aeVUG
BTAMSC – http://ul3.com/vAqdH
The Greed: http://ul3.com/pUDgd
The Ignorant, Zombies: http://ul3.com/PP8Ez
History: http://ul3.com/1rCFA
Chart Patterns: http://ul3.com/54VLV
Introduction to Technical Analysis. http://ul3.com/kcYCE

Writings.
INTRODUCTION TO FINANCIAL MARKETS & TRADING OPPORTUNITIES IN COMMODITY, CURRENCY, & FINANCIAL FUTURES. http://ul3.com/dAFWj
Revolutionary Transformation Ongoing. http://ul3.com/kcYCE
– Global Economic Collapse  January 18, 2016


And Why;
Technopreneurship Development – Daniel Mankani. http://ul3.com/kcYCE
– Published Sep 2003. Pearson Education Asia

 

Lessons from the Asian Financial Crisis, bailouts and capitalism end game.

December 22, 2016

Lessons from the Asian Financial Crisis, bailouts and capitalism end game.

{raw data}

The fateful day in 1998 when two very smart intelligent Nobel price winners had concocted an excellent never fail strategy of trading, arbitraging on Asian and Russian debt markets, which went awfully wrong against them, it was a year prior, when another great speculator Victor Neiderhoffer’s* wrong call on the markets caused the collapse of his fund, due to him being short S&P 500 puts, Victor had not only his lost fund, when the brokers squared his positions on margin calls, but also his twenty plus years of great performance of winning in the markets. It was the first large bailout I can recall and the largest I had known in my trading career as a speculator. The Feds bailed out LTCM at a cost of around 3.6 billion dollars, and this seemed a very large number, it had to be done, as the FED said “it had the potential to put the markets in a freefall and to avoid economic calamity, the FEDS saved a company which had made a wrong bet and it was considered “To Big to Fail”.

At the same time, the Asian Financial Crisis was underway and people were losing their jobs all around the region, Indonesia, HK, Malaysia, China, Thailand etc, and factories were closing, due to the sudden collapse of their Asian Currencies and as a double whammy prices of their assets were headed lower at the same time too, it was a precarious situation, similar to the situation in the America’s today.

There was no BAILOUT for these entrepreneurs, factories that produce real goods and employment, in fact the IMF prescribed their doctrine of raising interest rates to stem the fall in the currencies, and asked the countries who took loans, to increase taxes to stem the fiscal deficits and told them to lower tariffs and open their markets to competition, so as to integrate into global markets. It was chaos! And panic!

The IMF was not providing these countries with any help or assistance, in disguise all the steps they asked these economies to undertake were to ensure that they would profit from their timely investment and the countries had the capability to repay the loans taken. In other words to get countries into DEBT and Favor.

One man in Asia stood up and said NO to the IMF, he refused to take any loans from them, refused to buy into their chatter and he saw their end game right through, This Man was DR Mohammed Mahathir, the then prime minister of Malaysia. Mahathir took some very interesting, innovative and bold steps, while the rest, i.e. Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand agreed to the IMF. Mahathir instead, closed his economy, undid the opening of markets of the last 50yrs and pegged his countries currency; say to the US dollar at RM 3.80.

With the Malaysian economy now shut to the rest of the world, he could simply do his own internal bailouts as Dosmestic problems could be settled domestically, and it had nothing to do with the International community at large. Bravo, a great move by one man, who stood against the crowd, with the support of his fellow men.

These events taught me a couple of things.

1. Never trust the IMF, or any big organization, their own rules do not apply to them.
2. Speculators will eventually go Bankrupt. The smallest swing will be the cause.
3. Capitalism will eventually destroy itself. It’s called Cannibalizing.

* I recalled the Neiderhoffer story well, as I was on the floor in awe of the market collapse. Neiderhoffer is the author of the Book “Education of a Speculator” a very interesting read.

In Malaysia.

While Mahathir was doing the right things, at that time, as a trader, I couldn’t understand any of it, or of the things he was saying, he said the financial markets are useless, they are of no value, they create nothing, and it’s simply a giant casino. Which in some sense is true, as naïve I was then, I saw him simply as a old man who is past his own expiry date.

A lot of his statements ring true to this date and he is a visionary in that sense. The stock market is indeed a giant casino and it’s only those who sell STOCK that make money.

The cycles occurrence are simply there as a mechanism to transfer wealth out of the populace, with occasionally a few genuine winners to spread the message to invest and be rich in the future. Beat Inflation. They say. Mahathir blamed the IMF, United Nations for the plight that fell on Asia at that time and called the IMF and the UN tools of the mighty powerful Elite.

Static Chart – 1yr
{p}

The 1998 US Feds bailout of LTCM was considered by many in ASIA as double standards, as it was only a year ago the western definition of Capitalism meant there are winners and losers of economic cycles and the losers will be replaced by another set of new budding entrepreneurs who will find fortune. The IMF was against the idea of bailing out companies in Asia who were hard hit with the economic downturn, while in the US just a year later, they were not only bailing out a hedge fund, but also adding the right fuel to fire, by lowering interest rates, flushing capital into the markets so as the desired bailout affect could be met.

Static Chart – 2yr
{p}

How did this bailout result in?, well it created another ripe bubble, as we got into the new millennium, we were greeted with the Dot Com Economy, old rules are out, the new is in, everything out with the old, this time it’s the golden ERA of growth and technology, Its called the NEW NEW THING.

Static Chart – 5yr

Here again the same pattern presents itself, some very smart people including myself, quit the safety of our stable jobs and started out to dig gold on the internet, which was still in its infancy, but all of us went out there anyways; to beat each other with a much dumber idea than the previous to prove that we were indeed smart, how will it work? None of us actually had any idea. Indeed dumb and dumber at work here.

Static Chart – Snapshot

What made us do that, Who told us to do so, we have no idea, but everyone else was doing it, governments wanted technopreneurs, investors greed wanted the next new thing equity, Merchant bankers had the pleasure of selling IPO’s, and we probably wanted to prove out intellect and gain popularity for it. Its estimated the most dumbest ideas of our time had the greatest audience during the dot com era. This same pattern presents itself in all the previous collapses. We shall explore more in detail on patterns of exuberance and stupidity.

Static Chart – Snapshot
{p}

By the year 2000, the New New Thing had created another bubble in the Markets, NASDAQ had rallied 500%, and yes that is five hundred percentage points in a year and half time, from the last October 1998 lows of the LTCM collapse. Note, The huge gain of five hundred percent is not that of an individual stock, but the whole market rallied 500% in just over a year and half, sadly that too ended in a bust. And yet again we had a common game being played out each time. It simply wasn’t sustainable, but we did say, “It’s different this time”, sadly it’s never different. It’s the same pattern of Greed.

Static Chart – Snapshot
{p}

These events taught me a couple of things.
1. Boom Bust Cycle. Hope, Fear, and Greed.
2. The Bailouts. They were getting bigger and far larger than the previous.
3. The cycles were occurring at much shorter intervals than the previous.

Once I identified all those above. I got very very scared at the tops, cause I foresaw the bust coming and for protection I shorted the markets at the tops and when I saw the fear most, I bought at the lows;

Static Chart – Snapshot – 5yr
{p}

My system for knowing tops.
1. The smartest people start to do the dumbest trades.
2. Greed is so prevalent, even a farmer wants to become a banker. And bankers farmers.
3. There is very little time to think, as sales are made on fear of losing out.

My System for knowing bottoms.
1. Value of everything is below the replacement cost and there is much fear of losing.
2. End of the world seems a year or months away.
3. Even a dollar is a very big number. Cash is King.

Static Chart – Snapshot – 2yr
{p}

While all my own market timings and trades were alright. And I profited some, but at what cost? I started to question. I knew the END GAME was been played out and eventually Capitalism will cannibalize itself.

Static Chart – Snapshot – 1yr
{p}

Then comes along the greatest bailout ever known to Man! 2008, The Mortgage market plays itself out to such, an extend that the buyers and sellers became fools of their own devices. Now this was really very, very funny, here too was a situation of the smartest people doing the dumbest trades. And the FED comes out to bail the banks out and bloats its fiscal deficit to almost two trillion dollars.

Now I wondered how the number had changed from 1998’s three plus billion to two trillion dollars. Amazing don’t you think, now if we went down again in let say in a year or two or whenever, Do we have two trillion dollars multiplied a thousand times. I think they call it a sextillion. I don’t think so and here forth there will be no more bailouts. So what awaits us? Let’s find out!

| ITS ALL THERE FOR YOU, to see; if you are unable to see the charts, presented here, please see a desktop machine to see, mobile phones, those who don't have java, appear blank. }

I continued to investigate and tried to understand why the cannibalizing was occurring? What exactly the motive was? who was in charge, why were they happening, was it we as humans were becoming much more efficient where the previous edges that once resulted in growth were been made obsolete, that was my technology angle, from a technological perspective.

Was it caused due to huge economic imbalances? Where the boom and bust cycles were necessary to throw out the excess and start anew again, so as to play the part of distribution. If so, it was hard to hold water in this cup, as the cycles were getting shorter and shorter and we would need longer periods of down turns for the excesses to get soaked up.

For example, China has been creating five to ten new factories every month for the last ten plus years. These were in areas of Steel, Cement, consumer goods etc. Making China the eighty percent plus supplier to the world. So if the excesses had to be soaked up, China would have to close five to ten factories every month for at least the next five years. And you can surely imagine the cost towards loss of employment, the destructive wealth dissipating effect.

I, questioned the objective of the cycles, was it created, manipulated by someone, somebody or government so as to extract wealth out of the system, into their own pockets, was this the trend which provided them to emerge even stronger than the previous past. With this, I delved into various theories, including conspiracy theories, the stories of the Illuminati, and the free masons presented themselves and they started to make some sense. The New World Order, one government taking charge and everyone is simply a digit.

I was looking for repeated patterns, trends and objectives of those trends, something that I was familiar with as trader in the financial markets for the last two decades, it was the same zero sum game, every buyer has a seller and profit is at the cost of the loss of another. As far as I was concerned, I knew that it shouldn’t be that way, profits do not have to be due to the loss of another, or else the cannibalizing effect will eventually destroy even the only winner, as well.

As a trader and a student of Technical Analysis, where charts are observed and past data is used to predict future developments and patterns, it became increasingly clear that everything that is happening today and that will happen tomorrow into the future is from a page taken from the past. We have seen bailouts before, we have seen collapses before, and we have seen chaos, hope, fear and greed playing out before, they were simply called differently in different times. Somehow people have very short memories or had no interest in History. Or they simply were not around long enough to recall what happened in the past.

Delving into Historical records provided further evidence of the current scenarios but there were also some omissions in historical records that were purposely omitted by someone. I wanted to know who that someone is and why?

I became convinced that with the durations of the boom bust cycles getting shorter and shorter, a total destructive collapse was not far away, I took action in my own life, I stopped contributing to society in any form that contributed to that collapse that I had seen coming, becoming a rebel, I though if I wanted to avoid this from happening, writing a book, would be a good thing, it would be my form of research at the same time, provide some important feedback from others, possibly making me wrong on my assumptions.

The economic collapses of 1998 and before were simply “Warning Signs”, and as they had contributed to the future collapses that presented themselves thereafter, they were all connected, like ripples in the ocean that turn into a larger tides, and various tides to create a gigantic wave. These smaller ripples contributing to larges waves, started to increasingly look like a reasoning to the greater collapse that I had seen forthcoming, and every message that came along, I took them as part of the greater warning sign system to which heed should be paid too.

Just like a disease, a person doesn’t get a disease or becomes sick in one day, its various actions over the past many years, maybe decades that contribute to ill health and emotional well being of an individual, if an individual eats plenty, without consideration over the many decades, he will became obese, his bodily functions will sooner or later start to give in, as it can’t support so much of additional weight, but if he exercises then he is able to grow more muscle, strength and stamina, and can carry that excess weight if he wants too. Increasingly, the world economic cycles were also suffering from a similar disease. GREED!

Religions sell HOPE and we institutionalise people who are fearful, calling them MAD. GREED on the other hand is a disease but one that is encouraged in Society, as our barometer of success is often the one who is the most greedy. Greed is such a disease that it will do anything to win its purpose, yet its purpose is infinite, it doesnt have a limit or the word enough, and canibalizing is the last resort.

Reminds me of the Monopoly game, if ten players came together and played the game, in the end there is only one winner, with the whole board to himself, not realising that once left alone on the table, the game is actually over and the chips and properties of the game are of no value.

Debt had began the new defination of wealth, We often associated the ones with the most debt as the most powerful, the most wealthy, logically it just doesnt add up.

Economic Imbalances.

I tried to make sense of the huge economic imbalances, why on one side we had 800 million people in India living on a two dollars a day, and on the other hand some were spending as much as eighty thousand dollars over a single meal, why many people in some of the most sought after cities were on live support with less than six months of personal cash flow, with almost no savings, these individuals could hardly survive for a period of six months without pay, and had to revert to governement run welfare programs. Its estimated that in cities like new york, rentals and utilities takes a bite of upto 40% or more out of ones combined income, and if you added up, groceries and some personal entertainment, restuarants, clubs, movies and the likes, individuals were left with very little balance and possibly have to depend on credit cards for personal cash flow purposes. Soceity had associated debt as the new found wealth.

Similarly, those who didnt participate in this debt game, had actually found themselves to become poorer, as inflation over the years made debt look small in propotion as asset prices increased, so those who never prescribed to the debt doctrine, and didnt leverage up to the tilt as in a game of poker, going all in, actually found themselves to become less wealthier than the others over the last 3-4 decades or so.

I questioned the reasoning behind the increase of asset inflation and also studied the efficient technological advances made over this period of time, if indeed demand was so great, then why electronics, commodities and other commodities were priced lower than their 1970’s highs, even after four decades of inflationary boom, why were commodities priced lower. The argument that we found out better efficient technological ways to access more of the same commodities at a lower cost, made the commodities priced right, didnt make sense, cause if true, then isn’t it with lower prices of commodities, individuals should have less to spend, and more to save, and with more savings, then live would be relatively easier and affordable and financial indepdence within reach.

I continued to investigate and question, Why four decades ago, a 35yr old unemployed youth could play soccer or cricket on the streets, and it was considered normal, if you did that today, you would be considered a noob and a bumber, while the younger generation today, started to work at much earlier ages than before, all in the pursuit of more money, sacrificing their youthful years when there are many other activities, and they did so, not for their family responsibilities or commitments of their family, but its for their own self pursuits, where as they should be enjoying their youthfulness, when they could, as there are only certain sports, games, activities that are best suited for those ages.

Looking at the current generation of today and how families are these days, if we have indeed progressed, then why in one family, both spouses have to work and the cost of kids going to a nanny, seemed relatively proper, when our own forefathers could have more children, less relatively income and one working indiviual was able to support the whole clan. Whose debt had made them to do that, they had no debt from their parents, all of it was their own accumulation.

i looked at my own personal story, i started to work at the age of 16, while at the same time educating myself, so as to provide for my mother, so she could stop working as she aged and i could take upon myself the responsibility of life. I wanted to know if the current generation were up to it, i found out that relationship of responsibility, only occurs in those who had special situations and it wasn’t the norm, so what drives the youth of today, whose parents are much better off than their parents before them, what was their pursuit?

If indeed both partners are working, then savings rates should be higher, as output equals into input, but that too didnt take place, instead everyone was already a slave of debt.

 


LINKS
Disclaimer. http://ul3.com/L30qH
Back to the Beginning. http://ul3.com/aeVUG
BTAMSC – http://ul3.com/vAqdH
The Greed: http://ul3.com/pUDgd
The Ignorant, Zombies: http://ul3.com/PP8Ez
History: http://ul3.com/1rCFA
Chart Patterns: http://ul3.com/54VLV
Introduction to Technical Analysis. http://ul3.com/kcYCE

Writings.
INTRODUCTION TO FINANCIAL MARKETS & TRADING OPPORTUNITIES IN COMMODITY, CURRENCY, & FINANCIAL FUTURES. http://ul3.com/dAFWj
Revolutionary Transformation Ongoing. http://ul3.com/kcYCE
– Global Economic Collapse  January 18, 2016


And Why;
Technopreneurship Development – Daniel Mankani. http://ul3.com/kcYCE
– Published Sep 2003. Pearson Education Asia

{ Thoughts from 2010. To be compiled into new updated version of Technopreneurship - The Successful Entrepreneur in the New Economy. 
Aptly named, Knowledge Based Economy } 
All rights, © reserved, Daniel Mankani

The Greed

December 21, 2016

The greed

Late 1998. A company called theglobe.com was listed on the Nasdaq. With no prior history of revenues and no prior track record the companies listing debut was very well accepted by the investment community, It was a technology company and was building communities on the internet and that what was the potential, theglobe closed up 606% on its first day of trading, not before doing a high of $97.00 (up 854%) before closing down at $63.50 from an initial price was $9.00.  Welcome to the new economy.

The term new economy came about due to the strong economic growth the US had experienced and was doing so without inflation, American Stock markets had gained approx 20% year on year since early 90’s and wealth was been created as never before, this was something new and against the basic principles of economics and a totally different environment.

Companies were setting up shops on the Internet from where they could service clients from anywhere. Reach anywhere, sell everywhere was the way going forward.

Huge corporations were creating business-2-business exchanges where they could save millions if not billions of dollars by eroding away inefficiencies in the marketplace and integration of business processes and supply chains managements helped them achieve this.

Financial brokers accepted trading instructions via the Internet and offered tools to traders and investors alike in managing their own monies. Clients were now trading directly on most exchanges at the lowest commission rates and with greatest transparencies.

Overall value was derived by the lowered cost of doing business and the boost in efficiency by the deployment of new technologies, supply chain software’s and integration ensured companies were connected and were able to make efficient use of their information.

It was an excellent environment for starting up a company and wealth creation was at its peak. Media companies such as CNBC and others ran reports of how technology was changing the way business was conducted and carried wealth watch reports on individuals who were richer by a billion dollars within a year.

It was a ride of hope for everyone and fear for the old economy, who feared a takeover by technology companies which could eventually make them extinct since they were slow to adapt to such dynamic changes at a speed well beyond their capabilities. Which in all sense meant more profits for technology companies as selling of their products meant more profits with ease.

The most single important thing demonstrated by the listing of the theglobe.com was the appetite of hungry investors for tech stocks, such an appetite that was not going to cool down anytime soon, everything paled in comparison as history showed Technology stocks offered returns far greater then traditional companies.

Day traders loved them for the volatility, individual investors found them interesting and the future in them and companies who were slow to build acquired them for the value they had missed to build themselves.

Merchant bankers were quick to recognize this fact and actively marketed their services and fed the public with just that, more tech companies with the potential of huge growth and profits. Which also meant huge revenues for themselves and greater returns on unsold positions. It was normal for companies to gain a minimum of 100% or more on their first days of public trading, anything less and it meant some thing had gone wrong.

Valuation was the name of the game and the objective was to ensure higher rounds of valuation, from seed stage to IPO there was ample capital available, typically seed rounds went at a few million dollars and future investment rounds such as the 3rd or 4th went for a few hundred million upon which the merchant bankers would step in and make arrangements to offer stock to the public and public listing valuations were based on what a similar company had achieved and how greater the potential was in future earnings.

With the Internet growing steadily and doubling in size every couple of months, it was not difficult to imagine, a substantial growing consumers base that businesses could sell to and cases of revenue projections were based on (traffic) advertisements banners, products and services that could be sold to this group.

While all this was happening most of the world couldn’t really grasp the phenomenon behind such higher valuations, nor could they understand what was driving the growth behind this sector but one thing was certain. Valuations were headed higher.

Stocks just as America Online, Yahoo and Amazon had already reached high valuation levels which was hard to justify using traditional approaches, but since no one knew what was their real value, a whole lot of investors had lost out ‘big time” on such opportunities.

With companies like Microsoft making Bill Gates as the single richest man in the world, there’s was no sign of the bull ride stopping soon, but still there was too much disbelief that it would end in a big crash and this was just 1998.

Disbelieve from Politicians, media, and hesitation by investors who followed value based investment strategies, questioned on how could a company stock appreciate and continue to rise when the company has not even made a single dollar in revenues and will continue losing money.

All looked well, but in reality things were actually quite difficult everywhere else, Asia was in trouble and recovering from the 1997 Asian Crisis, Russian financial markets had collapsed and Latin America was facing a lethal currency crisis.

The only problem was, the world needed an economic engine, which the US provided, it was a gigantic economic powerhouse with the combined power of Asia, Europe and Japan and is still is, the single biggest gainer in the new economy creating technology and exports it to the rest of the world.

The US blessed with a strong domestic market soaked up the excess supplies of the rest of the world. Goods from China, Japan, Eastern Europe and other parts of the world were making their way into the American markets and America kept on buying and provided that engine.

In the last two decades many countries has jumped into the capitalist bandwagon and were producing goods in excess capabilities in order to turn their economies around and while all this pointed to a deflationary effect everywhere else, in the US it figured as if there was no inflation while they still had growth.

It was a great time for everyone and but it would be nearing its end soon, as its said on the street “the markets will convince all before it turns, the smell of greed is most at tops and fear at bottoms”.  There were yet too many disbelievers of the new economy for the market to break so soon.

The turning point came in October 1998, When two noble price winners Mylon Scholes and Robert Merton and an ex Solomon brothers super trader John Meriwether were managing a fund called Long Term Capital Management.

Long term capital management was a hedge fund who arbitraged trading opportunities in Russian and Asian bonds and its trading strategy and model had just gone badly wrong, the problem was the fund was sizable enough to take down Wall Street with it, losses to the tune of 300 billion dollars were now been declared.

Questions were raised on Hedge funds regulations and how such a fund so sizable was allowed to operate. If liquidations were to take place of such a huge portfolio, it had the potential to take down Wall Street with it and create yet another huge financial disaster.

This is what the Federal Reserve feared most and they had to avert this for now as it was too early, Asia and Japan were yet to recover, Europe didn’t show signs of providing that global engine and most important of all, Y2K millennium fears were fast approaching whose effects on the global economy were yet unknown.

Long Term Capital Management was in long-term trouble and a panic followed on the markets. LTCM main problem was caused as Russia had devalued the Rouble and declared a moratorium on future debt repayments, this lead to deterioration of credit worthiness of many emerging market bonds and increases in spreads, Which LTCM had bet against.

Most markets around the world plunged following Wall Street.  With the SP500 and Dow Jones off by almost 22% in a few days. It was chaotic and scary and looked like the end of the world is near.  Disbelievers cheered and re-iterated their claims that indeed the US was a huge asset bubble ready to be burst and they had given ample warnings, which no one had given attention to and all this could have been avoided.

To their surprise, the Feds kept the market tuned to their upside, it was yet to early for the timing of a financial collapse and the federal reserve moved and created a rescue package to bail out LTCM. Banks were instructed by the Feds to give LTCM more money in exchange for equity into the bankrupt fund.

In addition the Federal Reserve cut interest rates aggressively to ensure the rescue package created for LTCM had its desired effect and the markets turned.

It was a victory for buy and hold strategist and optimist of the markets and they called it the New Economy.  Stories were abound of people who had become rich buying on every downturn and this time around were no different.

All this boosted investor confidence even further and the Feds was looked upon as a savoir in the markets who wouldn’t just let the markets collapse as wealth is been created and distributed at all levels within the economy.

The Feds simply didn’t want to create two much of a financial stress as the millennium fears (Y2K) were indeed for real and any major financial disruptions had to be delayed for now.

The single most importance of the LTCM effect was the confidence boost and the trust in the markets, everyone investors, businesses, workers and consumers were all pleased with the wealth effect, why disrupt the party? Which had just began and was on its final path to the upside.

Something else spectacular was happening, the Nasdaq would now gain 400 percent in the next couple of months and euphoria had begun.

LTCM Bailout, Market bottoms and huge rally, the greedy george soros also turns long.

Greed was taking over. Such greed that there was adamant confidence and trust in the markets which would continue even after the market had collapsed.

Traditional investing was out, in was new investing, day traders would gather in chat rooms and trade over rumors.  Street café’s were specifically set-up to provide traders with trading information and execution access, where they would gather everyday to work but on their own monies.

New electronic communication networks (ECN’s) were set up to provide traders with the much-required liquidity, which lacked in technology and Nasdaq stocks.

Fears of competition from ECN’s made stock exchanges to relax their rules at all levels, listing requirements were eased and secondary exchanges started to spring up everywhere.

From Tokyo to Israel stock exchanges allowed new tech start up’s to list and raise capital from the public with ease, no previous revenue track records were required for new companies but they had to be in technology.

For the exchanges they wanted to compete with the Nasdaq, which was famous for technology companies and was the favorite among all others, Investor appetite was greater and start-ups could get the best valuations, which these new exchanges lacked.

This was the new economy, yearly growth no inflation and success was determined by investors for their companies that had achieved IPO status.

Money was everywhere. Companies with no prior records of managing funds in private equity were calling themselves Venture Capitalists.  One such story was of a fund manager who after losing massive amounts of money during the Asian crisis decided to take a holiday in the Caribbean, once there he noticed young 20 something individuals flying in with their own jets and having a great time. This bothered him and he asked one of them what do you do?

The answer he got is “we are technopreneurs and we are rich because our company got listed, but this is nothing you should see our financiers”.  The fund manager quickly cut his holiday short and returned to Hong Kong, once there he raised 50 million dollars and started up his own venture capital company.

It was later known that this venture capital firm had hit a home run and his original 50 million had turned into a billion dollars in about 12 months time.

Such were the days, where Venture capitalists and Angel investors went around sourcing deals in private equity and on the other hand raised cash themselves either thru a back door listing or from high net worth individuals.

Also joining in were Stock traders who made handsome profits purchasing stock at listing prices and re-selling later on, soon realized there is much more to gain if they were able to get closer to the value chain themselves and began sourcing deals in very early stage companies themselves

The criteria was simple, the company had to be a technology idea and have some commercial viability, most important of all the companies management had to have their eyes on an IPO and to fulfill these objectives, funds were provided to them to build, conduct R&D and ready till the stage until where a venture capitalist would come in at.

Founders everywhere started to quit their stable jobs and set out to set up their own Internet empires and it was perfect. Good news followed and the media reported.

Elsewhere established larger companies like Microsoft, AOL and YAHOO were already fighting battles among themselves trying to emerge as market leaders in the Internet community space. The idea was simple; one who owned the community had a massive competitive advantage to market to those consumers.

A space where Microsoft was weak in, with its existing monopoly in the desktop and personal pc market, Microsoft soon realized potential pitfalls the Internet had brought about for them and needed to scale up fast in building its web community platform.

The threat for Microsoft came from companies like AOL who had a ready pool of consumers through its ISP service made Microsoft to search for solution.

Just about that time, Hotmail was actively building their reach, the web first free web based email service had amassed a huge client base by providing free email service to individuals in India, China, USA and practically around the world.

Individuals who couldn’t afford a personal computer or who found difficulty in getting their own email services from their ISP, looked upon hotmail as the new medium to connect with friends, families and associates across the globe at practically no cost.

Email been the most popular communication platform on the Internet provided Hotmail with a strength and scale to deploy viral marketing techniques to build up their user base.  Hotmail would just keep on growing as users were advertising on behalf of Hotmail every time they send an email to their friends and associates.  With 9 million established users, Hotmail became a target for acquisition by Microsoft, who originally offered 150 million dollars for the two year old start-up, which Hotmail management team refuse, eventually four months later in December 1997 Microsoft paid Four hundred million dollars for Hotmail.

The initial four founders of Hotmail became very rich in identifying this opportunity and capital provided by Menlo Ventures and Draper Fisher Jurvetson (venture firms) had scored a big home run in a game of merger and acquisitions that had only just began. Total investments in Hotmail is estimated to be less than 15 million, with Hotmail going for it’s forth round of investments raising 3 million in just April 1997.

For the venture capitalist that had been approached by the hotmail team for investments earlier on, had now seen the light and it created a feeling of unhappiness for them. Not been able to identify an opportunity knocking on your doors is a big miss, which very few individuals will ever forget. Since then everything on the Internet with the word first mover became first mover’s advantage.

Valuations in the stock market continued to the upside and this gave public listed companies the currency they needed to purchase brands, concepts, competitors, and even expand and develop new markets.

The community building spree continued and everyone out there wanted a piece of action in the community space, more deals followed. AOL cut deals with Bell Atlantic, purchased Netscape for 4.2 billion and this spilled towards other ISP’s who wanted to fight off competition did the same,  (AT) @Home another ISP moved to acquire Excite for 6.7 billion and Geocities a company that provided free web pages for community was acquired by Yahoo in a stock deal worth 3.56 billion.

In a buying spree, the public loved technology stocks for their upside and the promise of the new economy, it was normal for firms to double or triple in prices on first days of trading.

Everyone in essence was getting richer. Real wealth was been created and distributed all levels. The Feds to a certain level ensued all things been equal the show must go on. Japan was still in trouble and if the global engine stops we all might get into a deep recession.

By Mid 1999, the frenzy just caught on further and everything related to technology was hot. The most important effect felt in the economy were the changes in the media, who till now reported on a bubble collapse in the US, were now providing a basis for the new world, economy and changes made by technopreneurs.

They ran articles of successful technopreneurs, covered events and even set up their own Internet ventures. They talked about technopreneurs who were making a difference, technopreneurs who willing to risk all for pursuing their dreams and fulfilling their visions.

Technopreneurs Who could access capital, turn their ideas into reality and list on the markets, turning original millions of investor’s money into probably billions, all in a matter of a six months.

The media had turned from being bearish to extremely bullish on technology all within a matter of six months and the markets loved that, merchant’s bankers praised them and sold more stock.

Governments everywhere were threatened by the these new corporations as they were been build, they were big fast and moved quickly, their eyes opened up to the billionaires been created in the west and they wanted a piece of the internet action, they called it knowledge based economy and created special IT trade zones which allocated vast amounts of national resources to start-ups for a promise of putting these countries on the world software map.

Old economy rules were thrown out and new policies were put in place to accommodate technopreneurs, bankruptcy was now considered hip and in order to facilitate adventurers to come again and take a shot at the business world once again, Bankruptcies laws were amended, allowing previous bankrupt individuals to reclaim their credit in society and start all over again. In some countries they even presented an award to individuals who were once bankrupt and had fought back against all odds to become successful once again.

This was truly one of the best times in history to setup a company and venture and this is what happened, New 18 year olds were setting up companies and were looked upon on as becoming the next the bill gates, corporate mission statements read, “we like building companies and have fun in doing so and traditional bankers went to office in t-shirts instead of the traditional suit and tie’s.

Company’s success was determined by how many investors they had and higher burn rates were considered growth, capital promised growth in market share and there was plenty.

Venture capitalist ignored the fact and demanded market share and exposure while sacrificing revenues and their targets. Been profitable was not in fashion and growing big fast was the way going forward.  They wanted start-ups who could scale and become industry leaders and the start-ups let them hear just that.

The money flowed back into the economy and everything with dot COM was hot, not a single day could pass without one been bombarded via big billboards, colorful busses and TV advertisements shouting out DOT COM.

Suppliers wanted them for their cash, employees looked upon them for success and investors wanted their equity which was worth more then gold and were willing to trade for them with services.

Landlords offered free rentals, lawyers, accountants offered their services and practically everything could be purchased with a option of a private equity, traditional media giants picked up equity in companies in exchange of free air time and prime time advertisement spots.

The logic was simple for investors, “I know the price I am paying is absurdly high, but somewhere out there is a greater fool than I am who will, when the time comes will pay an even higher price” The tech bubble doesn’t burst until the greatest fool of all has brought” they said.

For start-ups it was even simpler, the market was singing their tunes. Every day was party time, either a networking session event or a posh new dot com launch would be held, investors would come around as gullible as they were, looking to meet some promising start up’s to give them their hard earned money.

We were approaching the year end and fears of y2k had subside as money could take care of everything and there was too much of it around, new IT spending boom prevailed and billions of dollars was spend in upgrading of IT networks to ensure trouble free transition into the millennium. This added fuel to the lofty prices of the stock valuations.

Optimism was highest at all stages and so was greed. Practically every traditional company now had their own venture arm for investments into start-ups and for those who were lesser financed and had existing inventories and resources to trade set up their own incubation center’s all for the share in private equity of a dot com.

Non tech related companies began to realized the value behind the dot COM name and started branding themselves by adding a net or com to their businesses, with ease of listing for new tech companies, loss making companies, factories, manufactures, and property developers who were in dire straits and in need of capital could now secure financing through listing on these new tech markets and were partially exiting their positions while the gullible investor wanted more.

Elsewhere companies were losing talent to start-up companies, bright individuals with good careers were quitting their companies for a punt at the Internet world and the media sang glory of technopreneurs who were making a difference.

Universities and IT training centers followed the boom and starting educating individuals in technology, as it was hot and there was a huge demand for people who could build and manage technology for non tech savvy companies.

In countries like India billboards read “ 25000 programmers needed in USA, Germany and Singapore. Confirmed Jobs, Six Months training and everywhere else it was no different.

The Schools, universities and training centers started to offer courses in e-commerce, dot.com, technopreneurship and the likes. They were churning out individuals by the thousands and the Americans were employing them.

Manpower services companies were set up to facility this trade, which is no greater then the body shopping business but there was demand and someone had to do this job.

With rigid laws for employment and a constant shift in technology focus, most companies didn’t want to employ full time staff and opted for a contract with the manpower services companies to hire people from them on contractual or project basis, they paid good money for each individual sometimes far exceeding the salaries of local staff which were hard to find and again for companies who didn’t want long term liabilities this offered a perfect solution.

This contributed the basis for revenues for most Indian listed technology companies who instead of building software solutions were nothing more but a manpower services company, expected gain on each staff contracted sometimes exceeded a couple of thousand dollars each month and the idea was simple the more people I ship the more money is there to be made.  On Average four to five thousand programmers were shipped monthly if you multiply that with a two thousand dollars each, you get a very nice number for revenues, which could also make up a very nice case for a public listing process.

In other areas in India a software solutions firm at one time with a revenue base of 150M gained a market capitalization of 34 billion dollars as they were one of the few software companies from India listed on the Nasdaq and as most fund managers who follow herd instincts found this company as the only one with huge value in them.

As most old economy companies made the plunge into technology they lacked expertise in this space, then came along technical executives who could assist them in achieving those corporate goals, prices escalated further and so did salaries but this time the companies had to also part with options into the new company.

One particular incident worth mentioning is the IPO listing of a company out of Hong Kong called TOM.com, TOM.com was conceived by Mr Li Ka Shing, the richest man in Hong Kong with previous businesses in construction, real estate, utilities and telecommunications, there was something lacking, no dot.com, so Mr Li conceived an idea to create his own multimedia empire and tom.com would be it.Such was the euphoria that thousands of investors woke up as early as 5.00 AM to queue up outside of a bank for application forms for the initial public offering of shares in tom.com, which was a subsidiary of Cheung Kong Holdings Ltd. and Hutchison Whampoa Ltd both Mr Li’s companies. Tom.com was listed in Feb 2000; the estimated public float was US$1.47 Billion. According to Hong Kong police some three hundred thousand people had joined the queue.

The greedy come out in crowds, all wanting a piece of the action, just near the top. An estimated 300 thousand people lined up since early morning. Tom.com IPO

Elsewhere in Malaysia the government build up a whole new colony for technology companies and called it Multimedia Super Corridor and offered first class facilities for technopreneurs, besides these other benefits included Venture capital, 10 years of tax holidays and a chance for these companies to bid for government related contracts.

Everyone wanted to duplicate silicon valley and they attributed the success of America upon ready available capital and the risk averse entrepreneurs needed to innovate.

Disbelievers of the new economy were one by one convinced by the new economy and by March 2000, everyone who had not joined the rally to the upside was on the bandwagon.

Funds, who bet against technology, started investing in them and changed their strategies. Tiger Fund, Warren Buffet and George Soros all previous disbelievers now had investments in them and were now bullish on the future then ever. To them it just didn’t make any sense, but when you are wrong you can’t hang on for long.

By now most pension funds which were supposed to ensure livelihood of many individuals in their golden years were invested in technology, Universities, Private trusts, hedge and mutual funds were punting on them and in fact the US government was also considering parting with its citizens social securities funds to get a piece of the technology action.

It was these chains of events and timing that outlined a near term collapse.

Between 1999 and March 2000 most bearish funds made record purchases of technology stocks and the Nasdaq 100 was now 400% up from its LTCM lows.

And the media, behind the curve, on hindsight tried to make sense of everything.

There were more bullish books on the subject of investing then any other time, two books in particular worth mentioning were released which outlined continued market growth “Dow Jones to hit 36000 and 40000 respectively” and famous author of liar’s poker Michael Louis released the New New thing where he writes about new internet billionaire Jim Clark, the founder of Silicon Graphics and Netscape and who was going to turn health care on its ear by launching Healtheon, which would bring the vast majority of the industry’s transactions online, After coming up with the basic idea for Healtheon, securing the initial seed money, and hiring the people to make it happen, Clark concentrated on the building of Hyperion, a sailboat with a 197-foot mast, whose functions are controlled by 25 SGI workstations (a boat that, if he wanted to, Clark could log onto and steer–from anywhere in the world).

It was the timing again of Michaels story, whose previous book coincided with the bond market collapse of the eighties where he describes the height of the junk bond craze and the atmosphere of competitiveness and the vast rewards everyone was reaping as a result of that boom.

Greed had taken over.

On April 3rd 2000, the Nasdaq broke down. But this was not before establishing a high of 4816 on March 24 2000. A gain of close to 500% from its LTCM lows.

And the once poster child for the rise of the Internet Bubble Theglobe plunged to a low of 19 cents, a staggering 99.8 percent from the company’s all-time high of $97, which it reached on its first day of trading and was given the de-listing notice by Nasdaq for failing to recover to the required $1 minimum bid price. It currently trades on the OTC- Bulletin Board (Feb 2001)

 

technopreneurship_Daniel-Mankani

Technopreneurship – The Successful Entrepreneur in the New Economy – Daniel Mankani. Published 2003. Pearson Education Asia – All rights, copyright reserved Daniel Mankani { ISBN0-13-046545-3 }

Chapter The Greed >>> Technopreneurship-The Successful Entrepreneur In The New Economy.

LINKS
Disclaimer. http://ul3.com/L30qH
Back to the Beginning. http://ul3.com/aeVUG
BTAMSC – http://ul3.com/vAqdH
The Greed: http://ul3.com/pUDgd
The Ignorant, Zombies: http://ul3.com/PP8Ez
History: http://ul3.com/1rCFA
Chart Patterns: http://ul3.com/54VLV
Introduction to Technical Analysis. http://ul3.com/kcYCE

Writings.
INTRODUCTION TO FINANCIAL MARKETS & TRADING OPPORTUNITIES IN COMMODITY, CURRENCY, & FINANCIAL FUTURES. http://ul3.com/dAFWj
Revolutionary Transformation Ongoing. http://ul3.com/kcYCE
– Global Economic Collapse  January 18, 2016


And Why;
Technopreneurship Development – Daniel Mankani. http://ul3.com/kcYCE
– Published Sep 2003. Pearson Education Asia