1990’s The End of Real Innovation and Growth.

June 19, 2018

 Brief: Innovation, growth and human development are closely correlated. Today’s youth are losing their cognitive abilities and problems of today are not with innovation but excessive experimentation.

  • 1990’s is when we saw the last bouts of real innovation, 1990’s is also the time frame witnessed when Youth IQ levels have been dropping.  The world is indeed dumber and in the quest to access and justify capital, startups and companies tend to pitch artificial intelligence, big data, and autonomous systems simultaneously, when its factual Machines Do Not Think and possibly never will.
  • Computing is an execution of systematic codes and programs, they do not have intuition in pattern recognition, which is essentially a key component for innovation.
  • The End of Innovation in the 1990’s and the peak of economic growth is correlated and many of the problems we witness today is not due to innovation but rather excessive experimentation which is having disastrous consequences on society.
  • As part of a series to delve into these insane experiments, In part 1 we attempt to explain what is real innovation and growth. In part two we delve into the deeper workings of Artificial Intelligence and to explain how unintelligent these systems can be, yet this doesn’t stop experiments into various systems which are purportedly flawed and it continues by those just to be proven right (BIAS) at the huge costs of time and capital, while at the same time unleashing disruptive and destructive conditions on the global economy.
  • Use of Smart Phones and dependence on technology are making the youth of today lose their cognitive abilities and the main cause of youths unemployment- Daniel Mankani

 


1990’s and The End of Real Innovation and growth.

In 1434 Johannes Gutenberg, a goldsmith by profession developed a printing system by adapting existing technologies for printing purposes. In 1712 it was Thomas Newcomen with his “atmospheric-engine” who can be said to have brought together most of the essential elements established by earlier inventors.

Thomas Edison played an instrumental role in the development of the telephone. Edison had been working on methods for sending two messages simultaneously over a single wire for many years. In 1872, after Western Union adopted Joseph Stearns’s duplex for sending two messages in opposite directions, company president William Orton hired Edison to invent and patent other methods “as an insurance against other parties using them.” While working on duplex telegraphs, Edison realized that he could send four messages simultaneously by combining the duplex with a diplex for sending two messages in the same direction.
In 1875, with a contract from Western Union, Edison began work on the acoustic telegraph, which used tuning forks to send telegraphic messages at different frequencies at the same time. He would use this money to build Menlo Park. From this work on acoustic telegraphy, which he pursued at the same time as Alexander Graham Bell, came the telephone, which relied on Edison’s research, and the phonograph, which was inspired by the potential to replicate the sounds of acoustic telegraphy.

It was Edison’s Carbon Microphone in the receiver that was licensed by Bell and remained in telephones for more than a century. By 1876 Alexander Graham Bell is credited with the development of the first practical telephone, who too recognized the contributions of earlier inventors and with that came we got the Phonograph in 1877 and the lightbulb in 1878.

All these inventions effectively led to enhanced economic activity and an improvement into human conditioning, which prior to were a drag on society and economic participation limited to agrarian communities as men slogged at the farms while women in charge of the households were mostly left to draw water from distances, doing laundry which took up two days in a week and without electricity it meant hard laborious conditions for day to day life.

In 1903 the Wright brothers achieved the first powered, sustained and controlled airplane flight and two years later they broke their own milestones when they flew their first practical airplane, here again, made possible by drawing upon findings from earlier inventors and their observations.

By 1941 a new device came along which could be instructed to carry out sequences of arithmetic or logical operations automatically or via program codes and this became the first computing machines whose costs of ownership were prohibitively very high and were only used by governments for record keeping and instantaneous calculations.

In 1965 Gordon Moore observed the trend at which transistors chips were evolving made a prediction in his paper described a doubling every year in the number of components per integrated circuit and projected this rate of growth would continue for at least another decade. In 1975, looking forward to the next decade, he revised the forecast to doubling every two years.

And by late 1970’s and as predicted by Moore’s Law we saw the advent of the microcomputers and with affordability came mass adoptions of these machines. But these machines were standalone independently working machines thereby as a means to natural progression saw the advent of the Internet, allowing connectivity and collaboration as a means for enhanced efficiency.

Beginning from the early inventions in the 2nd century until the creation of the Internet in the 1990’s, all of the inventions were addressing problems for which there were no other real alternatives. They were fulfilling a real gap market demand followed with their efficient uses and instrumental problem solving, new industries sprung around them, and they had a powerful impact for all mankind, where human life and conditioning vastly improved.

These Real Inventions are in use even today and they can never be dislodged. With the end of these innovations, global growth collapsed and has been tepid since the early 1990’s. The end of real innovations has brought us to a stage of disruptive inventions which are cannibalistic in nature and as solutions to problems where none are required yet have a profound market impact and are reversing some of the positive traits built up in the past and are very destructive in their approach, affecting human conditioning not for the better but towards the worst.

Innovation and Growth

The wider implications of all innovations are strongly correlated between technological advances and the betterment of human life. For example, the Agricultural Revolution which occurred between 1750-1900 produced a transformation of human society brought about by the invention of the plough, making large-scale agriculture production possible. There was also a widespread replacement of manual labor by machines during the Industrial Revolution.

The Invention of the plough didn’t make the cows who plowed the fields obsolete but in fact, they had a positive impact where their old structural uses were enhanced and were made ready for other more efficient uses. Similarly, the impact of paper on record keeping, the compass for navigational purposes and the printing presses as an incremental innovation created, even more, uses for paper.

The Industrial Revolution too brought about much economic improvement for most people in Industrial Societies and many also enjoyed greater prosperity and improved conditions, modern industrial life also provided a constantly changing flood of new goods and services giving consumers more choices, which in turn provided employment opportunities for those displaced by the transformation of the agricultural societies.

Innovation can be classified as Breakthrough, Incremental, Game Changing and Disruptive.

Breakthrough Innovation:  Often referred to as “revolutionary science” because it involves a paradigm shift.  In this case, the problem is well defined, but the path to the solution is unclear, usually because those involved in the domain have hit a wall. Paper, Transistors and the discovery of the structure of many molecules including DNA are both good examples of breakthrough innovation.

Incremental Innovation: (sometimes referred to as sustaining innovation) uses existing forms as a starting point and either makes incremental improvements to something or some process or it reconfigures it so that it may serve some other purpose.

While Breakthrough and Incremental Innovations have a substantial impact in technological advancement and are directly correlated with the advancement of human conditioning and economy, Game Changing and Disruptive Innovations, on the other hand, are not well defined nor can be considered as a new scientific innovation but rather delivers the same repackaged in a different manner.

Game Changing Innovation: For Instance, Apple’s iPhone is not a new scientific Breakthrough Innovation but uses a combination of existing technologies such as the camera, the computer or the many components of the smartphone which were incorporated to create another phone, thereby making it just a game-changing innovation. The iPhone is also not an Incremental Innovation as that of printing press creating efficient enhancing uses of the paper, it did not make any of its components more efficient.

Disruptive Innovations: The term was defined and first analyzed by the American scholar Clayton M. Christensen and his collaborators beginning in 1995 and has been called the most influential business idea of the early 21st century and defines Disruptive Innovation as one that creates a new market by providing a different set of values, which ultimately (and unexpectedly) overtakes an existing market. In business, a Disruptive Innovation is an innovation that creates a new market and value network and eventually disrupts an existing market and value network, displacing established market-leading firms, products, and alliances.

Beyond business and economics, Disruptive Innovations can also be considered to disrupt complex systems, including economic and business-related aspects. The business environment of market leaders does not allow them to pursue Disruptive Innovations when they first arise, because they are not profitable enough at the start and because their development can take scarce resources away from sustaining innovations (which are needed to compete against current competition) and due to these innovations not clearly being defined, they may never be profitable and carry a much higher risk than every other type of innovation.

Real Breakthrough Innovations and growth go hand in hand. With computing came the internet in 1990’s and this is to be considered as the last bouts of real inventions the world has ever seen, Global Growth to has faltered in the 1990’s, first with the collapse of the Japanese Economy and the rise of China {cannibalistic}, this being not much different than Japan in the 1980’s. In fact, many of the trade issues we see today between China and USA are about the same of what we witnessed between Japan and USA then.

The innovations since 1990’s have mostly been computer related, which is to follow generalized sets of operations, called programs. These programs enable computers to perform an extremely wide range of tasks, which the newfound computing capabilities could perform well, first as a means of efficient record keeping, storage and with that effective collaboration of these informational data across multiple channels via the Internet.

Out of these new means of efficient storage and communication, Information Technology was born which in turn provided the ability for managers of such systems to identify repetitive and often redundant processes whose removal created new value chains of efficiency.

These new computing innovations while delivering informational competencies, their deployment was destructive in their approach and threatened every set of old established structural system, initially their value proposition was mainly positive as the benefits were visible in the overall bottom line of the organizations who deployed them in the form of enhanced productivity, service, efficiency and or sales, often referenced as Value Chains yet they were cannibalistic in their approaches.

While smartphones and related mobile technologies are recognized as flexible and powerful tools that, when used prudently, can augment human cognition, there is also a growing perception that habitual involvement with these devices has a negative and lasting impact on users’ ability to think, remember, pay attention, and regulate emotion.

As portable media devices, such as smartphones, have become an increasingly pervasive part of human lives, they have also become increasingly capable of supplementing, or even supplanting, various mental functions. With the capacity to be used as phonebooks, appointment calendars, internet portals, tip calculators, maps, gaming devices, and much more, smartphones seem capable of performing an almost limitless range of cognitive activities for humans and by doing so limiting humans own cognitive skills in a case of use it or lose it.

Moore’s Law, an observation of pattern recognition and Intuition.

As observed on Moore’s Law on the level of Transistors on integrated circuit chips, if human’s cognitive skills are in decay and reversing then surely this is not a good thing for society and this is reflective of the lack of jobs for today’s youth as they remain poorly equipped despite having participated in higher levels of education and the problem is not with the availability of jobs but the availability of the skills sets they have to offer.

In Business too, these informational technological systems have created havoc by deploying an arbitrage edge for themselves often at the costs of society. Value Creation is a concrete concept which none of these new technologies seem to deliver. The end of innovation in the 1990’s and the beginning of experimentation is at the root of our problems.


Further Reading
Animal Spirits, Bubbles, Mania’s and Market Peaks. http://ul3.com/FIl46
FOMO Signs of the Euphoric. The Bust is almost near! http://ul3.com/6K2S3
BITCOIN – A Fraud and Ponzi in a Disillusioned World: http://ul3.com/35fH1
The Greed: http://ul3.com/pUDgd
The Hope: http://ul3.com/CuC7d
The Ignorant, Zombies: http://ul3.com/PP8Ez
Perception vs Reality: http://ul3.com/UcYb1
Revolutionary Transformation Ongoing. http://ul3.com/kcYCE 
– Global Economic Collapse January 18, 2016

Call it a Revolution, If you will. A fightback is on the cards. Daniel Mankani

October 22, 2017

There are substantial issues on hand that are pressing, complacency of no other kind, talent development and human management needs to pick up speed and efficiency or there will be chaos.

Call it a Revolution, if you will. Human Talent, Tech Development needs efficiency and speed to succeed – Daniel Mankani

Please allow me to explain.

In 2003, when we launched our first book, which is a classical story of the initial days of the Internet, whose history, is very important we document and we did, outlying the dot com collapse, right up to the date it peaked and its subsequent years and challenges thereafter. Those were indeed very harsh times that followed and the peak and its bust was a surprise to many, governments, venture capitalist, the general public, even the smartest guys like us, all were suckered into it at the same time.  The Outcome of which is Technopreneurship, the successful entrepreneur in the new economy. today, we wish we paid more attention to the chapter 15; “Role for Society in technopreneurship development.”

Today, its no different.

The time has once again arrived where we are witnessing the secondary main peak of euphoria and complacency and all those fears highlighted in our first book are coming back to haunt us. What it takes to be a successful entrepreneur, was not written by an academic but as a trade book, with real life experiences on how to start up your own internet venture and be successful. Experience has taught us there is no other short cuts from hard / smart work, its only via practicing and failing long enough that open’s up the real knowledge to succeeding.

Automation is picking up speed and there is a good reason behind this, but before we get to this, lets understand what this automation is really doing, its programming the human mind into becoming zombies. There is a huge risk of mental imbalance occurring across the planet and maybe its time for us to realize that the programs only have one purpose, which is to manipulate minds.

Most people only visit ten websites max, day in and day out and its these top ten websites which rake in most of the traffic whilst others have to pay a fee to get access to this traffic. Hence The Gatekeepers. The rest of the treasure trove of knowledge buried much below but many neither have the time, motivation of discipline to explore.

Just look at google, couple of guys wiring together hundreds of machines and building an index, then offering that index as a search engine is fine.

Once they go public, see what happens next.

They become gatekeepers in other words wanting to control everything. The earlier mission statement of Don’t be Evil doesn’t exist.

What was the mission of Facebook, lets be clear and honest about this? Wasn’t it about controlling the human mind and make a zombie out of them and wasn’t it build by a secret organization, that is part of the CIA, NSA.

Can anyone deny this please?

Rumors of facebook been a US Government Surveillance tool made China to create their own. Today, governments are reading everything, the internet is live connected, your devices are live connected, your location known at any given time. You gave them the keys to everything, your privacy doesn’t exist and if you have a camera in your device and a backdoor to the root, then you gave them your view of you in your bathroom as well. How crazy can this be?

Although these are the largest tech companies and have created value on their own in various ways for communities, its their next source of activities is which is causing more mental harm by trying to control thought via perception, turning many into zombies like a swarm of bees of common thought into a collective action for more.

Ideology has great power to convert your best friends into enemies. countries fall and kingdoms disappear when ideologies control human minds. This trend is rapidly increasingly and we see substantial challenges and deterioration in every aspect of human life and economy.

Living in imaginary illusionary lives on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and various online communities, enhancing self ego which begets bigger ego’s, the smallest people have the greatest need to express their validity but real life is totally different and yet it looks so real, devolving into a public spat’s,  more common than anytime before and once it turns ugly, heading down hill pretty past, exposing many things that were never known before.

Everyone is affected. People are losing their minds and going off balance very fast, once this happens, chaos reigns next without knowing how and what caused it in the first place.

Where is the productive personalities that we all want to see and be?, Where is the value creating technology revolution delivering and enhancing of processes and the need to be more productive that we can be. It is after all one life and one shot at it. Instead of what we have is totally unproductive and sometimes a complete wasteful life.

Human evolution has to evolve with its consciousness, the necessities of understanding and self purpose.

Artificial Intelligence by itself has no intelligence on its own, what it rather is, is a set of algorithmic codes running a indexing numbering system based upon which a second set of instructions are undertaken, a simplest form to understand Artificial Intelligence is to realize that its a set of data, possibly even personal to you, based upon which recommendations are made towards you.

A simplest example on how it works on you, is per-determining and recommending based on your past behavior.

Have you ever seen, “We think you may be interested in the following article” or “This may be of interest to you.”, These recommendations are AI.

To reiterate once again, Artificial Intelligence is not intelligence at all, but its based on data and probabilities. For example, if you wanted to create a automated bot of yourself, you will first create a database with a set of data within and create a relationship with queries and give them a ranking of some form based on those rankings, the next outcome is determined, Now you can refer to these as some sort of intelligence, but this is no match to the intelligence of the human mind.

The Internet is semantic and everything online is relating to language or logic in some form, these relationships determine activities for a program to undertake and execute but none of this is rocket science, yet can be driven towards own self interest or greater good for those who are in the know. The concern is the state of affairs for many of those who don’t even know, they are been programmed. Its the distortion of such behaviors that the problem, we are concerned about.

Today, the entire world is invested in the FAANG’S and we don’t think it will always be like this. There will be a fightback from Small Medium Enterprises and from New Technopreneurs, its just impossible that a winners of today are winners of tomorrow as well. Never has been never will be.

The fight back will come and it will take market share off the current established structures, Call it a Revolution, if you will.

FAANG’s | {Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Alphabet’s Google}

We are attending WEB SUMMIT 2017 in Lisbon.
Get to know us.

technopreneurship_Daniel-Mankani

Technopreneurship – The Successful Entrepreneur in the New Economy – Daniel Mankani. Published 2003. Pearson Education Asia – All rights, copyright reserved Daniel Mankani { ISBN0-13-046545-3 }

Chapter The (False) Hope >>> Technopreneurship-The Successful Entrepreneur In The New Economy.

LINKS
Disclaimer. http://ul3.com/L30qH
Back to the Beginning. http://ul3.com/aeVUG
BTAMSC – http://ul3.com/vAqdH
The Greed: http://ul3.com/pUDgd
The Hope: http://ul3.com/CuC7d
The Ignorant, Zombies: http://ul3.com/PP8Ez
Perception vs Reality: http://ul3.com/UcYb1
History: http://ul3.com/1rCFA
Chart Patterns: http://ul3.com/54VLV
Introduction to Technical Analysis. http://ul3.com/kcYCE

Writings.
INTRODUCTION TO FINANCIAL MARKETS & TRADING OPPORTUNITIES IN COMMODITY, CURRENCY, & FINANCIAL FUTURES. http://ul3.com/dAFWj
Revolutionary Transformation Ongoing. http://ul3.com/kcYCE
– Global Economic Collapse January 18, 2016


Trends: The entire system needs a reboot, a kick in the butt. moment.

December 20, 2016

The entire system needs a reboot, a kick in the butt, a wake up call,
saying; 
” LOOK!, All of this, is a very big misunderstanding “,
if you know what I mean. 

- daniel mankani, author, Knowledge Based Economy. Published on: Dec 20, 2016 @ 08:01

The news reports emerging are all crazy and those in power, have resorted to calling it FAKE NEWS.

Fine, one can agree to that, it could be false, but telling someone or deciding for someone else, what true and fake is already an attack on ones conscious, an individuals moral right of free will. Telling them not to think? and emphasizing is no wonder, why, there are indeed, so many zombies in every part of the system.

The entire educational system has wrongly assumed the role of telling everyone what is wrong and what is right, by practicing teaching of education by the means of memory recollection, instead of teaching students of How to think?. Once you destroy this thought process and try to define individuals further by leading them into higher educations, certification, then careers and professions, you are already creating zombies for the benefit of the masters of the system, serving up slaves, and controlling them by debt and fear of losing out to peer pressures, driving up their insecurities further and away from their own discovery, and then you still expect them to be efficient and innovative in their approaches. You are sitting on a big fat wish. 

No wonder we are now faced with the kick in the butt moment. Note, its you!, who took away, their moral right to think? And its you, who has now become the solution to everything, despite you been the one, who got everyone unto this path of mess, in the first place.

And its no surprise today, that the world is lacking solutions to all the worlds problems, cause the ones who are suppose to have solutions are the same ones, who actually got us into this mess in the first place, Is it Not?

Before, we go on with this discussion further, lets first analyse, what exactly is a zombie?

A zombie is a computer code that does things based on a rule based engine, it has no thought, no empathy, it just does what it’s told.

To add intelligence, you need to add, what and if scenarios. And if you can cover all the possible, what and if scenarios, then you will encounter self intelligence and a self learning process begins, chip based systems refer to this as artificial intelligence, while humans don’t need to learn this as they have a natural ability to think, but it becomes a case of; use it or loose it, becoming a zombie.

On the other hand, a rule based approach, which is reactionary to current circumstances and with more code and more rules added on top of past errors as in order to cover the gaps as and when they become self evident, is a reactionary self preservation approach, So new rules are written on top of the current set of rules, and what you get is a systematic collapse, as each new rule added is in the interest of self preservation, in deception and deceit to address past flaws and what the system master doesn’t recognize or acknowledge his past mistakes, he then becomes bound to repeat them again, continuing down the path, not fixing but counteracting his past gaps, while opening up issues, leads the system to becoming bulky, non operative, buggy, and then a crash.

its a bad code, a destructive bad beast gene, A virus thought process. Monkey see and Monkey do. And a ZOMBIE!

The zombie virus is pursuing a systematic approach, reactionary and impulsive of destruction behavior in its self preservation mode. Its not not value creating or efficient in its design, its reactions are based on its current circumstances and the need to survive and it doesn’t understand its own current circumstances and understand all events are dynamically changing and as each new action or event is introduced into the equation making once again circumstances to change evolve dynamically in its the current and the future forms accordingly, while the past flaws still remain hidden. And that’s why, its often said; when the truth emerges, it always runs a shiver down your spine in this case complete loss of self preservation, misery and its own collapse.

Companies too.
Companies, who charge customers on the basis of their own costs, their rationality been their costs that they need to cover in order to survive instead of costs incurred in delivering value.

Governments too.
Self interest and reactionary policies are so much further away from the actual truth, the equilibrium of all things. A pattern quite evident for those who can see and its worldwide.

And Individuals.
They rather drop off the jobs force, become a non participation statistic, rather than take a job at a lowered pay, than get paid less than their own expectations to survive. It don’t matter to them, that taking a new job and a new job skill, will make them productive once again, yet; they prefer the path and the jobless pain’s it brings to them.

No one is to blame. Another misunderstanding. It will deliver the pain needed for change to occur and those who don’t evolve or do not want to evolve will find misery and its company and time and time again all failures are due to this repetitive destructive pattern of a Zombie.

Zombies! will eventually be all eradicated and after some time they too will evolve and corrupt the system again. but not in the age of transparency, where all that you have done and will do. Is known to all.


LINKS
Disclaimer. http://ul3.com/L30qH
Back to the Beginning. http://ul3.com/aeVUG
BTAMSC – http://ul3.com/vAqdH
The Greed: http://ul3.com/pUDgd
The Ignorant, Zombies: http://ul3.com/PP8Ez
History: http://ul3.com/1rCFA
Chart Patterns: http://ul3.com/54VLV
Introduction to Technical Analysis. http://ul3.com/kcYCE

Writings.
INTRODUCTION TO FINANCIAL MARKETS & TRADING OPPORTUNITIES IN COMMODITY, CURRENCY, & FINANCIAL FUTURES. http://ul3.com/dAFWj
Revolutionary Transformation Ongoing. http://ul3.com/kcYCE
– Global Economic Collapse  January 18, 2016


And Why;
Technopreneurship Development – Daniel Mankani. http://ul3.com/kcYCE
– Published Sep 2003. Pearson Education Asia