Stock markets remain elevated, driven up euphoria on trumps victory, what it all is; This is HOPE, the period of disbelieve before reality.
A dangerous bend in the road. – Daniel Mankani.
Where am i going? There is a turn just ahead. Oh, its bending, I can’t see, where its going?
Once again, nothing is by chance, you may think coincidence, but lets speculate for a while, its all by design, shall we?
The demographics don’t tally, the system is build for only one way, a mechanism that just inflates, it is just infallible, and so, it may seem.
Then comes the bend on the road and you can’t see destination next and remain in hope, just soon, around the corner, I may be able to see, then it eludes you.
The Dow Closed above the 20000 MARK for the first time ever.
The Pound had one of the largest up move days since 1997.
And various such observations, this past week.
THINK BIG!
Almost a decade from the greatest recession the world has ever seen, markets are higher highs, property prices higher too and they are even headed higher. Governments or rather politicians have started once again with their populist spin and are resorting to blaming developers, property investors and civic approving bodies of irresponsibility and possibly greed. This happened in 2011-2013.
Various countries thereafter in Asia, implemented property cooling measures, first which began in Singapore, Hong-Kong and then spilled over to Malaysia. So, where do we stand today.
Despite all efforts for the property cooling measures, the fact remains that property prices remain elevated high, professional speculators have exited from the markets completely, while there have been pockets of weakness with some property players, who had not anticipated the affects of the cooling measures, coupled with the slowdown in the economy, as well as with the effects of economic transformation, this in essence is failure of not planning for the rainy day and akin to getting caught with your pant downs, those in such situations, find dire straits and are liquidating at any possible costs. Some breakage in the momentum is present and this will increase as we head lower.
Why: Understand this;
The economic transformation is having a deflationary total affect on the economy, jobs are lost in some sectors and possibly never coming back, Mr Trump with all good intentions, wanting to bring back jobs in America, make america great, -re-start the industrial revolution again, manufacturing jobs is what he is seeking, but aren’t those very same jobs, low end, blue collar types, that are increasingly, been made obsolete with the rise of the machines, 3D printing and the sorts.
Secondly; The economic transformation is a game changing event, some companies, individuals and even countries, not on the global radar before, have emerged with increasingly dominance, and as their momentum is based on rapid speed of deployment and fulfilment, they are taking over customers from someone, somewhere else, and those customers are never coming back.
/update: 16/4/2017;
It only took Trump!,
76 days to get on board. Now he is full empire!
Hope plays an important part in our expectation, for hundreds of years mankind has behaved and reacted in a peculiar manner, once things turn sour, we tend to hope and pray for things to get better. Regardless of the situation, hope gives us the strength to hang on and look forward, it makes us to expect the impossible, it tells us a change of luck or a miracle may come our way saving us from these troubled times.
When one starts to leaves things on luck of chance, fate and begins to believe things will get better, then it’s a condition of hope and hope is your worst enemy when you are trading the markets and you are losing, cause hope may only make matters worse.
A condition of hope prevailed on the markets, they had started heading down, but a state of denial supported investors to continue their beliefs and investments on the way down.
Market reports, the media and everything else suggested a correction was underway and Financial Guru’s were on TV, advising everyone that a correction is underway and in no manner this should be read as a all-out collapse of the Internet Sector.
After all the markets had continued to gain year on year for the last decade and corrections then were ideally an opportunity to buy more stock, invest in new ventures and leverage on the lower prices.
The hope was the Feds who had supported previous down moves would ensure that the markets were tuned to the upside for ever, after all a prosperous investing crowd was good for the economy.
With this Investors continued to pour capital into private equity deals and large-scale public companies found valuations cheap to diversify their investments and create new revenue streams for their shareholders.
As the public companies struggled to build their own revenues, their diversification plans provided them with the hope of growth in technology, as technology and the Internet are here to stay and a switch now could help them save the day.
The real problem for the old economy companies was, the supply of goods and services they provided, they had either gone out of fashion or were not in demand anymore and their continuous supply was constantly depressing prices further and creating a deflationary environment in the economy where prices are headed only one way. Lower!
Most old economy companies took this opportunity of lowered equity valuations to diversify into technology, as technology companies continued to remain the darling for most investors and even on the way down, they constantly craved for more.
For the old economy companies this provided an ideal opportunity to sell out and revive defunct companies which had lost an interest with Investors, all they had to add was a good plan worth exploring, huge revenue projections and a management team which had some track record providing the basis for execution.
The problem was not many of these late stage aspiring technology companies understood much about technology or were innovative in any manner, they also hardly understood what had been created and delivered by many by most successful technopreneurs.
A phrase of Investing on concepts prevailed and even after six months since the March 2000 Nasdaq bust, capital could still be raised on ideas of innovation but it was starting to get difficult. Public companies armed with public money continued to soak up private technology companies that provided them with basis of justifications on their own corporate revenues.
Companies in debt, companies with cash flow issues and companies in general who were unable to secure capital via traditional means, one by one realized the opportunity of tapping capital from the stock markets since regulations and listing requirements were been eased. They changed their names, added a dot com, venture, or an “I’ and “e” to their names, jazzed up their offices and headed towards the public who were happy as long as they could pass on theirs buck to someone else. .
Not realizing the real game and noticing the fame. Wealth was been created on the basis of valuations. The public, governments and everyone else applauded technology companies and continued to create an environment deemed perfect for technopreneurs to set up operations.
Successful technopreneur’s, businessmen, and many others who were able to access billion dollar valuations and capital soon joined the bandwagon of setting up incubation companies. They were no longer satisfied with getting a piece of public listed companies and instead wanting to get closer to the action, incubation firms were springing up everywhere.
Traditional companies with experiences in construction and developments, used their excesses warehouses as incubation spaces, companies who had more office space then they could use, converted them into lab where startups could be breed and companies / individuals with nothing much to offer, went around as consultants offering strategic advice to the technopreneur in exchange for equity.
These were indeed the final days, but hope continued for technology and rasing capital became increasingly difficult. Believers of the stock market continued to hope for a turnaround in the stock market and continued to leverage on the way down. With money becaming increasingly hard to raise from stock sales, most turned to trading services and products for equity, for the dot com, its equity was still in demand, although not cash, but for services and those who accepted such deals, their hope was the value of todays equity is still discounted in comparison to future potential. At least this was the hope for everyone.
With the Nasdaq peak in place and constant falling market prices, some venture capital firms and institutional investors were among the first few to realise the changing tides and started to quickly look for alternatives to let go their babies in their portfolio’s.
Some looked for suckers in the financial times for names listed on the stock market, while others were quick to realize the tides had changed and pushed their start-ups for market share instead of revenues and a phrase of consolidation prevailed.
Technology companies merged and consolidated to produce the largest media house, largest data storage company and largest companies of all sort, for it looked good for the public markets, but all the consolidation and expansion required capital and the dollars had already been spend before even a single dime was made.
For there was hope and a sucker in the role of an Individual investor in the public markets and such was their hope, that they invested their life savings on expectations of capital returns a hundred fold.
While some had parted with their life long savings betting on technology, others had simply bet and lost their careers, although stable , they staked it for the fame that came with being into technology. Presidents, ceo’s, manager’s and many had simply resigned form their daily routines, all wanting to take their shot at technology and Internet ventures.
Some quit to setup the next big thing, while others were simply wanting to get out of the boring careers, the Internet had offered everyone something, for some it was cash, for others fame and for the rest a chance to prove their inherent entrepreneurial qualities of Innovation. The career changes that were occurring were indeed a very daring move for anyone, but all the basis of justification for doing so were there, the media had continued to trump success of technopreneurs and stories were abound of individuals risking their careers, marriages and whatever else to ante up in technology on this down move.
Stories were abound of how technology had changed the course of our life’s and how a simple farmer was able to boost productivity with the miracles created by technology, it was a daily occurrence in the local papers to read about how technology combined with biology were creating tissues to save mankind from mortality and how technology had boosted efficiency in the workplace.
But in all this the lesson was clear, time was short and plenty many hopefuls were waiting at the door, hoping to cash out of their tech investments, little did they know that the door had already closed.
With the pressure mounting and as the markets fell, investor’s appetite gradually disappeared and those who had already invested, started to feel the pain and complained, asking questions on how could they have invested in companies which looked so fantastic and yet had no revenues to prove their claims and for the companies who had no revenues, they justified by suggesting their innovation was unique and since so, it requires more capital to reach out to the masses, it requires more capital for education, marketing and in some cases completing product development.
With the markets collapsing, the downfall had squeezed all capital from the markets, investors and companies both were now looking for someone to blame their folly upon, as they both genuinely believed they had become part of a larger conspiracy theory, they increasingly started to look elsewhere to point their blame and claim for their pains.
For technopreneurs, they blamed their venture capital companies for not parting them with any more capital to burn, since it was the venture capital companies who originally preached them the ideas of developing market share instead of revenues, they had told their start-up’s to continue building market share via means of exposure and not focus on revenues, since a company with a greater exposure will be able to command higher premiums on the stock market.
The VC’s had advised their start-ups to execute the “GBF” strategy and to grow big fast and build up their first mover advantages, thinking this would allow the start-up to command significant market share first and then considerable amounts of revenues shall follow, a strategy also deployed by now defunct webvan and even used by Amazon.com in its earlier years.
Amazon.com and Webvan both companies famous for “GBF” strategy relied heavily on access of capital from the public markets and had a powerful affliction that have since killed many dot com’s as well as traditional companies.
GBF is a captivating idea for management, even after its predicament often called for the purchase of assets or businesses that could add value to the overall bottom line of an organization.
Webvan picked up a range of warehouses across America, networked by pickup trucks driven by courteous drivers and hoped for customer satisfaction from lowered prices and an efficient delivery system, Similarly for Amazon, who because of its bulk purchasing power and country wide supply chain hoped that they could provide customers with an overall value proposition.
Once the doors were closed, additional fund raising became extremely difficult and companies depending on them were quickly to feel the pain first, in fact GBF is a very capital-intensive business. Cut off the capital and these companies fall in trouble.
The hope for many was that the Bull Run in the public markets would continue and provide for additional capital as and when required. Corporate America and its efficient management teams had become complacent due to the excess liquidity that was once available and with the bubble now bust, the test of the best was on the cards. The VC’s who once preached first mover advantage now started to learn first mover also is the one to to first hit deal stand woes.
Customers, Investors, employees and partners were now getting upset and were losing their patience, they wanted to know what was happening to their companies, their investments they had made, the products they had purchased and on the companies that were dealing with.
With their loss now turning into Anger, they first turned their attention to the Federal Reserve Chairman, Mr Allan Greenspan for not doing enough and with questions why the federal reserve was slow in reviving the economy and couldn’t the FEDS use a miracle pill to make all the pain go away similarly to the manner the FEDS had acted in the past.
In one of the occasional state of the union address, when the Federal Board met with the government to discuss on going’s issues in the economy, one Senator took the opportunity to question the chairman, asking him, on whether he the Fed Chairman was responsible for the market fallout as he chose to raising interest rates during a time where economic growth was in question and by doing so the FEDS had drained the much required liquidity out of the system and made capital inaccessible for companies who depended on it for growth.
The senator like many others was feeling the pain from the fall in stock prices and when people feel the pain they often fail to remember the good times they had enjoyed due to the stock market rise over the last decade.
Everyone suddenly became upset with the Feds as this time around even actions of the FEDS had failed and the dot com crash was slowly exposing major flaws in the system. The FEDS even after aggressively cutting interest rates failed to provide any boost in stock market prices as well as a boost in lenders willing to borrow money. The financial markets and system was slowly beginning to get into a depression.
With little recourse, Investors started closely examining their portfolio companies, trying to find what was the real issue behind the lowered valuations and falling prices, they were searching now for a solution that would assist them in recovering part of the lost capital and provided them with some sort of justification for their folly.
They then turned towards Investment Bankers, Investment Houses and Market Analyst who had prided themselves with being one of the best money managers and analyst of all times, just before the crash. After all these could be the people who had benefited by selling stock to the public, they reckoned and these were the same people who had made bullish claims of Internet stocks that could never perform, their anger turned towards investment bankers for the reason that Investment bankers and their respective houses could have been working in tandem to push stock to the public suckers, knowing that now they had been suckered, they questioned practices of professionalism in organizations as such.
Lawsuits flew left, right and center against merchant bankers, their analysts and all those who had misled the public into buying now worthless technology companies.
In all of this, there was some hope that if someone could be found guilty then at least part of the lost capital could be recovered, Little did they know, billions had already been lost and the worst ride was only beginning, The danger was too many companies had pulled the tricks on investors and one by one they were been exposed by the public and in doing so they were only eroding further value off the stock market, which they wanted to recover.
For Technopreneurs, they were many, many were indeed hopefuls, hoping for the market to turn so that their investors and companies could go public, the truth was they were still hoping for a free public lunch while the window opportunity for it had long been closed.
Technopreneurship – The Successful Entrepreneur in the New Economy – Daniel Mankani. Published 2003. Pearson Education Asia – All rights, copyright reserved Daniel Mankani { ISBN0-13-046545-3 }
Chapter The (False) Hope >>> Technopreneurship-The Successful Entrepreneur In The New Economy.
Perception of the mind, no one can answer. What is wrong or right?, What is the right way forward, No one can tell you?. Is it not?
What you know, is due to some external influences, some experiences of strong emotion of the past, deeply ingrained, which drives your next perception, idea or thought, in the direction, towards the direction, of your own self made fantasy, creation or concept, which was in someway, important to know, and impact, which came about or budded up from that, deeply ingrained emotional impact, that you somehow experienced, and this became, your first budding memory of pain and brought about fear.
While, me too am experiencing an enlightening moment, on this subject, me too am searching, for the definite answer, me too, am driven by thoughts of perception and reality, experiences, which too, came from somewhere.
Crooks of every kind, manipulators of the human mind.
I would also like to believe that, this is my own creation and i am a genius, too.
Look, see, do like me. Truth is; this knowledge, that I have recently acquired, is also a creation of my recent developments.
Its all an influence from somewhere, somewhere external.
There are no coincidences, or luck by chance, its strategic. And as an analyst, its one’s task to question everything.
And as a trader, we trade only in the direction of the trend. if last bar is up?. Are you long or short, on the current bar? Are you against the trend? or in favour of the cycle?.
What is your longer term objective? Where do you think, its heading?, Where is your STOP?
Do you have trades on the trend or against it?
And, Why?
The game of Speculation; is a constant battle of perception vs reality.
Trade the path of least resistance is the cardinal rule always, what happened past, is likely to follow, to continue, amid some setbacks, on the journey, observe the momentum, to tell you, when it bends. Human Behaviour is ingrained, markets don’t change, till human’s do.
Know the BEAST!. If you are looking for hocus pocus, then its hope playing out ON you,
know HOPE, cause that is what 2017 will bring. 2017 will remove the illusion of authority, the illusion of economic recovery, which then begets, a revolutionary, creative destructive move to the downside. Starting anytime, just about now.
The Sanity of Man. Each one wants to know,
what 2017 will bring. – Daniel Mankani
Such is the time, of the year, where every great mystic,
wants to try out his mind. He predicts the future.
What he is really identifying; it’s the trend. Is it not?
Its not hard, but its all there to see. But you choose sometimes, to do not,
maybe on the basis of fear, of what, your mind might see.
Fact is; Nothing is by surprise, but by design.
And those design patterns are all out there, for every one to see.
Here is an example; of what we have witnessed, over the last few years to a decade.
Trends. Geo-Politics.
1990-2000 {Russia withdraws from Afghanistan, after a defeat, Russia was kept engaged in Afghanistan for so long, that in fact, it ran out of money, This was the Russian default and the collapse of USSR.
{ Fact is; Russia was by design, kept engaged for so long, only cause of the Taliban, which was a proxy warrior team of the CIA, Russia was already engaged in a losing war, a war, where a systematic disciplined force, couldn’t perform against guerilla tactics of the rebels, which made Russia run out of Afghanistan in DEFEAT, and this only happened within 12 months, of the rebels, obtaining the stinger missiles, cause it was by design, that engaging your enemy on the battle field, for so long, that it expends all its energy and depletes all its resources, will eventually ensure its collapse, a strategy deployed in the art of warfare for centuries. Hence, despite the Americans owning such missiles as far back as the early 1980’s, they didn’t give those to the Taliban earlier than 1989, hence the reasoning is a good strategy, played out of design, a pattern can now be recognized, if this ever happens, ever again. }
2000-2008 {America finds itself under attack in 2001. Its response; starts another war in Afghanistan, against the very rebels, that they once owned. Next comes a war in Iraq, then, comes the 2007-2008 Great Depression.
{ Fact is; America finds itself as the only super power, which then; engages in various overseas expensive, non productive adventures. Many of them engaged in without any reasoning, just the drums of war for no apparently reason, possibly GREED, all legalised on by great speculation, acts of crime was been committed in the name of democracy for the world. America over the last centuries have bombed more than 50 countries, just to retain, its hold as a super power. Truth is America; is on a decline as it lost its, higher ground of morality, its adventures in Iraq, were build on false premises and greed, since most politicians of that time, were all involved in IRAQ deals, this by itself, became exposed and everyone, who had the eyes to see, , this then in itself, empowered the world. One by one, everyone questioned, What Moral Authority, whenever America called out a Red Line, no one took heed, Today; America is on a state of decline, a vanishing super power, and with huge debts on its head.
2008-2012 { Global Revolutions brought about by extreme high commodity prices, partially caused by the EL NINO, affect. Revolutions broke out in almost all parts of the middle east, all within a very short time. And the ramifications of those, looked like it could also happen worldwide simultaneously.
You have to change for the situation to change. Inquiry | Understand Karma.
Just like success can be programmed, failures too, are running a program, which in affect is also a program, which exhibits success.
If you are repeating failing, then the cause is no one, but you, as you suffer from the affects of failure, due to your repetitive behaviour, if so, you can also be programmed to counteract those affects, to output the desired behaviour.
As a data analyst, this will make you, understand, that with the data presented, there is no coincidences, everything is well programmed, it’s just the data lying stale there, giving us our very own understanding, of what that is.
It also tells us, if yesterday is the same as today, then tomorrow will be the same, cause human behavior is the hardest to change.
These human behaviours, repeatedly provides us with trends, outputted at various sites of BTAMSC.
This is what we do, at banking technologies Asia. We study data, data that is clean, data that is not obtained, but gathered, studying human behavior, in current form and the past, and we store this data, and call this dataset1 {history}.
On any single day, we analyse practically everything, gathered in real time, these bots of ours, operate like spiders, they dive deep into the web, to collect everything. To know everything, and archive it into history.
We keep track of the news, via snapwire.com.
To analyse to {dataset1}, we add another sets of new data into it, our bots gather and keep track of comments on blogs and all forms of social media, and we store these as {dataset2} as name them as feelings, or thoughts.
With this new data, a new preservative is added into the spectrum, to identify, his reality, vis perception, we scrub the two datasets, against each other.
Most importantly, we get to develop, predictive technology, intelligence is been gathered on our system, by giving us the predicative capability, of determining the next probable outcome, with the relative degree of safety, of potential pitfalls, challenges that may arise, in the fulfillment of the most probable outcome and what if; how; and other potentially required, questions, can be outputted from such a system. The most probable trends, our current condition of inquiry, are again outputted for scrubbing, at http://dynamictrader.com And http://dynamictrader.org, sites we operate since 1998/-.
As such, we run multiple tools of information gathering systems and run them against each other, to determine the path of most probable outcome, this is a trend, that we are attempting to identify, the path of least resistance.
Analysis is a subject of repeated inquiry, that is what it is. The questioning and repeated inquiry, of what if, why, and every such question is the subject of such inquiry, then this is what is outputted, its called Intelligence, a state of {I Know more than you.}.
We then add into {another dataset3} , we call this economy. We track financial data, of all nature.(p)
We believe in is a world without borders. A world without barriers and monopolies protecting the inefficient are been questioned. The days of segregation are behind us. Talent remains global and capital follows it. Redundant processes once identified become obsolete. Value creation meets success. Technology deployment demands speed!. Its Human Evolution not Revolution. Will you sink or swim?.
Progressively Evolve and aggregate extensible success, deploy existing resources and reinvent. Strategic deployment and high standards delivers value to your customers, our customers!. To redefine processes, Ask BTAMSC, Give us a Challenge!. As Quants, Data is our best friend, without bias and corruption, we identify the inefficient and make them obsolete. For a Better World! Full of Love. For you, for us and our Lovely Planet.
BTAMSC is currently seeking partners to value add in the following joint ventures. Cloud based solution upload.asia, SocialNetwork platform planetic.com, Alternative News Media, snapwire.com, P2P+Merchant Solutions payments.asia, Virtual and Social Gifting redpacket.com, Ebooks Magazine Store emagbook.com, Expats community site, escapeartist.in, Free online educational platform elearningweb.com and virtual office platform keyteams.com.
Our data is not for sale. For fear of corruption and bias.
We practically have no clients, want no clients.
We seek value adding, performance driven, systematically executing; joint venture partners.
Venture capital is available, meeting such criteria.
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