Deflate or Inflate: The Path Forward – Daniel Mankani

October 30, 2018

The period of greed is ending and a sense of denial prevails.

Since the great financial crisis nothing much has changed, the excessive stimulus had two major effects, zombification of the economy and concentration of wealth in newer and fewer hands hence inequality.

Inequality is a consequence of those who could game the system versus those who couldn’t.

Zombification occurs when financial prudence takes a backseat and gives way to euphoric gun slinging behavior in the hope of what works past will always continue to do so and leads to even more of the same, essentially what this does is; it kills all demand as excessive capacity increases and utilization of the same suffers. The other affect out of this is capital seeking returns pile onto the very same processes which are high yielding, eventually destroying yields as supply increases and demand suffers.

 

 

Economic growth is not infinite and never can be. Boom and bust cycles are an inherent part of the capitalist economy just like in human’s nature, We tend to do what works till it stops working and we tend to avoid what doesn’t work and try something new.

Economies across the world have now lost the last leg of growth, it started with cash for clunkers for the auto-sector, then lowering interest rates to the housing sector, student loans for enhanced education and corporate loans for stock buy backs and the Federal Reserve now says no more.

 

At the bottom of every cycle there is fear and we are far from it, hence looking for a bottom at these levels is futile.

Each and every cycle begins with greed and euphoria, by avoiding the corrective behavior of the last great financial crisis of 2008, market participants are once again looking towards where will be the next level lower be before the Federal Reserve will act and put it in bid and unleash another round of quantitative easing or at what level the Federal Reserve folds with their interest rates tightening process.

There is now a new school of thought taking hold of “deficits do not matter” and as long as the continued stimulus is provided to the economy eventually everything will get better and if Japan can do it; Why can’t we?. There is no escaping debt, especially so when Interest rates have been kept low to such an extreme creating a situation of Zombification of the entire economy.

its this continued stimulus to the economy and these Keynesian ideas which has got the world in the big mess in the very first place. As a reminder the continued stimulus destroys fiscal balance sheets and today we have consumers, companies and governments maxing out on their credit lines and for all the new additions simply add capacity resulting in the worsening of the glut, evidently seen in real estate, infrastructure, car sales, etc while real utilization, growth, and demand has suffered. Japan at one time even mailed coupons money to spur their domestic consumption spending and it didn’t work yet the pundits today are floating ideas of “Universal Basic Income” as a means of one’s birth right to the “feed me” crowd who expect governments to provide cradle to grave support, while governments own fiscal balance sheets are so impaired, they may be hard to survive.

What comes next after bear markets is a recession and if its prolonged then it becomes a depression, something which the central banks will have to avoid at all cost as further downside is flashing red, “Sovereign Debt Crisis” alternatively the hunt for money begins with higher taxes as interest rates rise in tandem with this comes austerity next and further tightening of the economy, which may result in another period of Revolutionary Spring as seen in the first quarter of 2011, this time it could be worldwide.

Bear Markets have taken hold, the path forward beckons the question, inflate or deflate and no matter which way the outcome it’s filled with a whole lot of pain.

Conclusion: Deep structural policy reforms have to occur based on deployment of real metrics and the diversification of the underlying economy in earnest, hopefully with the coming pain the greatest motivator for change comes next as well.

Significant challenges remain ahead.
./ stay tuned.

 

 

 

 

 

 


Your Guess Is As Good As Mine.


Further Reading
{cognitive dissonance}  Animal Spirits, Bubbles, Mania’s and Market Peaks. http://ul3.com/FIl46
{cognitive dissonance}  FOMO Signs of the Euphoric. The Bust is almost near! http://ul3.com/6K2S3
{cognitive dissonance}  BITCOIN – A Fraud and Ponzi in a Disillusioned World: http://ul3.com/35fH1
{cognitive dissonance}  The Greed: http://ul3.com/pUDgd
The Hope: http://ul3.com/CuC7d
{cognitive dissonance}  The Ignorant, Zombies: http://ul3.com/PP8Ez
{cognitive dissonance}  Perception vs Reality: http://ul3.com/UcYb1
Revolutionary Transformation Ongoing. http://ul3.com/kcYCE 
– Global Economic Collapse January 18, 2016

High Debts + Stagnation lead to ww1, ww2, Trade Wars, Sanctions are just the beginning. Daniel Mankani

April 14, 2018

High Debts, Stagnating Economy, lead to ww1, ww2, and now ww3. Trade Wars and Sanctions are just the beginning of world war 3. American Supremacy is questioned, Central banks narrative of global growth is collapsing and mirrored in high debts, external enemies are created and fought to keep the narrative alive at home. Is this just not good economics; If we took the narrative of central banks then its indeed “FAKE NEWS”. – Daniel Mankani.

More of that later; but indeed, there is another narrative, Lets look at the cross roads on where the world stands today.

Trends.

1) Nationalism is rising with it Protectionist Policies.

2) Global Migration is at its highest, mostly caused by prosecution of the free.

3) Economic Transformation mostly driven due to automation and technology.

4) America the accidental empire, global supremacy is been questioned.

5) The Rise of China and the end of Petro-Dollar.

6) The Biggest Elephant in the House called Student Loans.

This has resulted in High Debts and a Stagnating Global Economy.

Most of these trends although look coincidental but are systematic and by design.

The Economy is in a constant flux moving from highs and lows, booms, bubbles and subsequent corrections and busts are all part of this ebb and flow. Most importantly in all of these cycles one needs to identify at which stage one is at in the ongoing cycle to act accordingly and if subject of study is price or data then to be successful one is to have no bias and discard all noise.

Its only with such dedication to remain objective with the data and not incorporating our own biases one achieves consistent systematic execution’s and does not need to re-validate his own expectations of taking in subjective biased data which in the end fools no one but the analyst himself.

In light of the Cambridge Analytica scandal with Facebook this has indeed given a very bad name to “Think Tanks or Big Data” companies. Cambridge Analytica was never a big data company, nor a data scientist. They scrapped data which is publicly available and at other times available via data “breaches or leaks”.

Facebook is a marketing company whose main product is “eyeballs, attention spans, page views and clicks”, Every company on the Internet makes money from these “eyeballs, attention spans, page views and clicks”. None of it is hard to understand, if one’s “pay reward” is associated with an “enhanced arbitrage”, then why not, says; the capitalist business world.

FACEBOOK ANALYTICS – The product is you!

             {Above Images "Facebook Analytics ; The product is you.} 

Fake News

To end the discussion on Fake News!. Its simply what doesn’t fit the narrative of the designer of the system is called Fake News, what doesn’t go with the narrative or perception that has to be created and brainwashed individuals embolden, this is called Fake News and we fired the first warning shots with a debate on illusions and perceptions, if after all governments wants to control their narrative as true and manufacturer conditions to be favorable then this bias is corrupt to the core and will eventually end with disaster as no one can hide from the truth, especially when everything is made transparent via the deployment of technology, therefore its essential to understand the underlying forces of each major trend we are witnessing and you will notice its not much different that before.

At BTAMSC, In our attempt to understand history too. Our Back data is as much as 5000 years. The crisis upon us next is all driven by the simplest of simplest causes, excessive bubbles due to central banks excessive stimulus. The expansion of Monetary Units in order to retain the narrative that all is good and fine when its not. Cause if it is, how do we explain.

A) The Excessive low in lending rates.
B) The expansionary populist policy of doling out money to the masses.
C) Sovereign Budget Deficits and the pile on debt.
D) The hunt for money.. Rising Taxes and Deterioration of the Middle Class.

{Above Images, WW1, propaganda machine}

The product is you, every step of the way consent is attempted to be manufactured but the manner in which its undertaken draws to attention that this is indeed dangerous times and everything that you read online is not necessarily true. Its for any and every individual to guess-estimate-validate for themselves what is true. Any other type of system of propaganda falls apart pretty quickly as fast as real time.

This is the age of technology and hence every thing is documented almost immediately in real time, what was said yesterday and what really was true can switch sides and opinions in a matter of minutes as they say in the stock markets, a short against a lie goes down much faster than the one based on the truth, truth therefore is fundamental to any narrative, a rising stock on good fundamentals is evident based on its underlying’s revenues but a buzz stock only lasts high till the buzz is on.

Facebook, Tesla, Linkedin are all fads and they come and go but investors are piled on to such many stocks in the dreams of holding them forever. This complacency will end in tears when the entire world are long the very same stocks, whose stock buybacks rise as many piled on debt to trade their own stocks, so what else is new, exactly the type of story of the roaring twenties and the rise of interest rates, culminating into a massive bust and the great depression in 1929.

Which in turn gave rise to World War 2 and economic prosperity only returned three decades later as nations fought out each other, culminating in the bust of the British empire and making america the accidental empire.

The evidence for this fact is the public exposure of Main Stream Media channels biased against President Trump during the election campaigning or it can indeed also be said that they were reporting the truth, while they were maligned as Biased Channels.

Main Stream Media untruthfulness gave rise to Alternative Media channels, in the end its the traffic and discussions all channels provide and their readerships numbers which manufacturers a certain kind of consent, while the opposing party only other defense is to discredit what doesn’t fit the narrative as fake news, I would say such questioning is actually good making everyone to question everything and to expose more fundamental truths.

However the case, the false narrative can never last long and this causes many more problems. Everyone has the right to develop their own truths and populism brings about them together and results into Nationalism, which in turn has resulted in “closed door policies”, protectionist to varying degrees, with the economy semi autonomously and globally connected via technology and for its transparency that it brings, if untruth facts are inputted and a system designed to fool itself then a systematic crash is bound to happen within crash time frames, which are here now and therefore global trends are dangerous poised as in earlier times.

High Debts resulted into malinvestments which in turned wrecked the economy causing it to stagnate as government expenditure continues to rise and the cost spend of all those bills will soon come due. Trade Wars and Sanctions are just the beginning. The wars since 2003 was costly, America is on the edge, losing out its supremacy as all nations have already picked sides, on the economic front a recession is due, at which point the question to ask is; what will the federal reserve do? Continue to hike or let the dollar loose.

 

The March Forward, Gold Breaks 1326, Trump the Dollar, The Emperor with no Clothes.

January 14, 2018

Dynamictrader.com/12/01/2018/ Daniel Mankani

Last year GOLD Break at 1226 was based on the trump inflation trade, tax cuts and infrastructure spending boost, unleashing a call for revolution, “Lets Make America Great”, lets march on to even greater heights. The march forward, gold breaks 1326, Trumps the Dollar at 52 week lows, telling us “The Emperor is with no New Clothes”. Gold targets 1400 and even higher levels. Dollar Yen is back in “Safe Haven Play”. Expect Risk off traders to begin momentum. The bursting of all Bubbles and the Melt Up nearing its end.


GLOBAL WORLD STOCK MARKETS HEAT MAPS.
[stock_forex_markets_heat_map settings=”type=stock;background=#fff”]


EYES ON THE BALL: Gold bottomed in December 2015, similarly its around the same time many other major commodities bottomed as well. This break today of 1326 is making higher highs.

Friday’s high of almost 1340 is now approaching key resistance levels. In the manner and the strength of the rally, in my mind the momentum is strong enough targeting highest highs. A MARCH ON has began.


1400 is on the cards.
In 2017 alone gold settled 10% higher and dollar slumped the same. Whilst most of this gold gains coming in the last week of the year. On December 11th, we called the lows and here is why; In 2015:Gold Breaks 1226| This in itself was the first announcement gold rallies of highest high has began. It is notable of what a week change can do to personal annual portfolio’s. Just a week before December 11th 2017, Gold traded near 1237 lows. But it never did threaten 1226 again. You Know Why!.

Since that Gold Breaks 1226 report the Stock Market has marched on even higher. It feels a long time since then, but stocks a year ago and today have the greatest change as well as no meaningful correction for a very long time.

What’s going on? its was 43 days back then without the S&P having a meaning full correction. Now that period will be almost a year. { Gold Breaks 1226 }.Stocks and Gold have rallied even after the Federal Reserve Last Interest Rate Hike, both have marched higher!.

ANIMAL SPIRITS are ongoing, the melt-up continues and nearing another area of potential peaks. But how did we get here. fear of missing out as demonstrated in the fraud and a ponzi called crypto-currencies of which is also Bitcoin.


TRUMP the Emperor who has no Clothes.

Laugh and Know
But making fun of the high and mighty is what we do here at the Diary.

“Laugh and know,” said the Roman poet Martial. You can understand the pretensions… the foolish contradictions… and the absurd fantasies… only if you’re able to laugh at them.

Specifically, we were laughing at the way The Donald has bamboozled his own base. He talks their talk. But he walks the walk of the Deep State.

 

Mr. Trump is a showman.

quoting Frank Zappa, “politics is basically the entertainment arm of the military/industrial complex.”

We would add that it serves the social welfare/Wall Street complex, too. Trump – veteran reality TV star and professional wraslin’ fan – distracts the voters while the insiders pick their pockets.

An Emperor With No New Clothes.


Its a great wikipedia story; What happens to Bullion Banks? What happens when those excessive contratual agreements which are more than the physical underlying begins to chase for the Physical, where none so exist as much as they have loaned out. What happens when the short covering begins? The unravelling of the 30’yrs low and lower low only, directional trade of Treasuries Bonds. What happens then?


Major FX Rates Changes


Dollar Closes at 52 weeks Lows on Friday.

 


Your guess is as good as mine!. Watch where the dollar is going? Its down 10% at the 52 weeks low and closing in to break in even lower. The last time this happened was in 2003. Look-up what happened in 2003! Also a republican and the start of world wars!

Gold Hits Highest High! “December 2012”. End of the World Rally!.


Last week Wednesday market reaction to “China may diversify send dollar tumbling and yields on the 10 yrs spooked at 2.63 highs. Since December 2015 gold has consistency made higher highs. Recent mining industry reports also suggest while demand grew in Asia, especially India and China for gold imports, gold annual production is in decline, additionally; China has become the highest gold producer in the world and do you see any external China Gold Exports???.


What happens? When contractual obligations are greater than the underlying?

Caveat Emptor in what you believe in. Complacency is at play across every society.


World Dollar Forex Heat Maps

[stock_forex_markets_heat_map settings=”type=forex;background=#fff”]

Watch where it is Green and Where it is Red. Look at FX Maps Above. When we break below the 90”s, dollar drops with momentum.


“Quoting from the dollar collapse blog.

Looking at just this one indicator, it would be reasonable to assume that gold’s all-too-brief run is about to end. But on the other side of this equation is the certainty that physical demand will eventually swamp these paper games and send gold and silver up in a bitcoin-worthy arc to their intrinsic values of $5,000/oz and $100/oz, respectively.

Therein lies the gold-bug’s dilemma. Precious metals will bounce around aimlessly – until they don’t – but the phase change won’t be obvious until after the fact. With that in mind, here are three possible approaches:

Avoid this asset class until a sustained uptrend is clearly established. That means waiting for, say, $1,500/oz before jumping in. So you give up a few hundred dollars an ounce in return for avoiding the pointless back-and-forth, but in the end still triple your money. Not bad.

Keep adding a little at a time. Each month buy a few silver coins or a few more gold mining shares and tune out the noise (such as this article), safe in the knowledge that eventually the dysfunctional global monetary system will come undone and capital will pour into the relative handful of safe haven assets like gold and silver, making the highs and lows of the before-times completely irrelevant. This is the best way to deal with incomplete knowledge of the future, and is therefore what most people should do.

Assume that this is it — that the current uptrend will soon go parabolic — and jump into precious metals with both feet. If it works, it’s one of those life-changing bets that everyone wishes they had the guts to make. If not, well, at least the downside is limited at this point.
The longer this goes on, the more attractive the third option becomes.


Trump the Dollar.

The March is on, your guess is as good as mine!.


LINKS
Disclaimer. http://ul3.com/L30qH
Back to the Beginning. http://ul3.com/aeVUG
BTAMSC – http://ul3.com/vAqdH
BITCOIN – A Fraud and Ponzi in a Disillusioned World: http://ul3.com/35fH1
The Greed: http://ul3.com/pUDgd
The Hope: http://ul3.com/CuC7d
The Ignorant, Zombies: http://ul3.com/PP8Ez
Perception vs Reality: http://ul3.com/UcYb1
History: http://ul3.com/1rCFA
Chart Patterns: http://ul3.com/ate6A
Introduction to Technical Analysis. http://ul3.com/kcYCE

Writings.
INTRODUCTION TO FINANCIAL MARKETS & TRADING OPPORTUNITIES IN COMMODITY, CURRENCY, & FINANCIAL FUTURES. http://ul3.com/dAFWj

Revolutionary Transformation Ongoing. http://ul3.com/kcYCE
– Global Economic Collapse January 18, 2016

A dangerous bend in the road.

January 29, 2017

Stock markets remain elevated, driven up euphoria on trumps victory, what it all is; This is HOPE, the period of disbelieve before reality.

A dangerous bend in the road. – Daniel Mankani.
Where am i going? There is a turn just ahead. Oh, its bending, I can’t see, where its going?

While the Dow Industrials remain near all-time highs, the Utilities are well off of their highs; this has signaled trouble in the past.

Once again, nothing is by chance, you may think coincidence, but lets speculate for a while, its all by design, shall we?

The demographics don’t tally, the system is build for only one way, a mechanism that just inflates, it is just infallible, and so, it may seem.


Then comes the bend on the road and you can’t see destination next and remain in hope, just soon, around the corner, I may be able to see, then it eludes you.

That’s what hope does, to you, is it not?. The Period of Hope has begun. {2017-2018}.
Hope report of 2001, dot com bust is here.

In our recent observations.

The Dow Closed above the 20000 MARK for the first time ever.
The Pound had one of the largest up move days since 1997.
And various such observations, this past week.

THINK BIG!

Opportunities are Present.

Almost a decade from the greatest recession the world has ever seen, markets are higher highs, property prices higher too and they are even headed higher. Governments or rather politicians have started once again with their populist spin and are resorting to blaming developers, property investors and civic approving bodies of irresponsibility and possibly greed. This happened in 2011-2013.

Various countries thereafter in Asia, implemented property cooling measures, first which began in Singapore, Hong-Kong and then spilled over to Malaysia. So, where do we stand today.

Despite all efforts for the property cooling measures, the fact remains that property prices remain elevated high, professional speculators have exited from the markets completely, while there have been pockets of weakness with some property players, who had not anticipated the affects of the cooling measures, coupled with the slowdown in the economy, as well as with the effects of economic transformation, this in essence is failure of not planning for the rainy day and akin to getting caught with your pant downs, those in such situations, find dire straits and are liquidating at any possible costs. Some breakage in the momentum is present and this will increase as we head lower.

Why: Understand this;

The economic transformation is having a deflationary total affect on the economy, jobs are lost in some sectors and possibly never coming back, Mr Trump with all good intentions, wanting to bring back jobs in America, make america great, -re-start the industrial revolution again, manufacturing jobs is what he is seeking, but aren’t those very same jobs, low end, blue collar types, that are increasingly, been made obsolete with the rise of the machines, 3D printing and the sorts.

Secondly; The economic transformation is a game changing event, some companies, individuals and even countries, not on the global radar before, have emerged with increasingly dominance, and as their momentum is based on rapid speed of deployment and fulfilment, they are taking over customers from someone, somewhere else, and those customers are never coming back.

/update: 16/4/2017;

It only took Trump!,
76 days to get on board.

Now he is full empire!

A total sell out“;
Is the word on the street.

Perception vs Reality

January 22, 2017

Perception of the Mind. Daniel Mankani.

Perception of the mind, no one can answer. What is wrong or right?, What is the right way forward, No one can tell you?. Is it not?

What you know, is due to some external influences, some experiences of strong emotion of the past, deeply ingrained, which drives your next perception, idea or thought, in the direction, towards the direction, of your own self made fantasy, creation or concept, which was in someway, important to know, and impact, which came about or budded up from that, deeply ingrained emotional impact, that you somehow experienced, and this became, your first budding memory of pain and brought about fear.

While, me too am experiencing an enlightening moment, on this subject, me too am searching, for the definite answer, me too, am driven by thoughts of perception and reality, experiences, which too, came from somewhere.

Crooks of every kind, manipulators of the human mind.

I would also like to believe that, this is my own creation and i am a genius, too.

Look, see, do like me. Truth is; this knowledge, that I have recently acquired, is also a creation of my recent developments.

Its all an influence from somewhere, somewhere external.

There are no coincidences, or luck by chance, its strategic. And as an analyst, its one’s task to question everything.

And as a trader, we trade only in the direction of the trend. if last bar is up?. Are you long or short, on the current bar? Are you against the trend? or in favour of the cycle?.

What is your longer term objective? Where do you think, its heading?, Where is your STOP?

Do you have trades on the trend or against it?
And, Why?

The game of Speculation; is a constant battle of perception vs reality.

Trade the path of least resistance is the cardinal rule always, what happened past, is likely to follow, to continue, amid some setbacks, on the journey, observe the momentum, to tell you, when it bends. Human Behaviour is ingrained, markets don’t change, till human’s do.

Know the BEAST!. If you are looking for hocus pocus, then its hope playing out ON you,

know HOPE, cause that is what 2017 will bring. 2017 will remove the illusion of authority, the illusion of economic recovery, which then begets, a revolutionary, creative destructive move to the downside. Starting anytime, just about now.

 

What 2017 will bring?

January 16, 2017

The Sanity of Man. Each one wants to know,
what 2017 will bring. – Daniel Mankani

Such is the time, of the year, where every great mystic,
wants to try out his mind. He predicts the future.
What he is really identifying; it’s the trend. Is it not?

The Path of Least Resistance.

Its not hard, but its all there to see. But you choose sometimes, to do not,
maybe on the basis of fear, of what, your mind might see.

Fact is; Nothing is by surprise, but by design.
And those design patterns are all out there, for every one to see.

Here is an example; of what we have witnessed, over the last few years to a decade.

Trends. Geo-Politics.
1990-2000 {Russia withdraws from Afghanistan, after a defeat, Russia was kept engaged in Afghanistan for so long, that in fact, it ran out of money, This was the Russian default and the collapse of USSR.

{ Fact is; Russia was by design, kept engaged for so long, only cause of the Taliban, which was a proxy warrior team of the CIA, Russia was already engaged in a losing war, a war, where a systematic disciplined force, couldn’t perform against guerilla tactics of the rebels, which made Russia run out of Afghanistan in DEFEAT, and this only happened within 12 months, of the rebels, obtaining the stinger missiles, cause it was by design, that engaging your enemy on the battle field, for so long, that it expends all its energy and depletes all its resources, will eventually ensure its collapse, a strategy deployed in the art of warfare for centuries. Hence, despite the Americans owning such missiles as far back as the early 1980’s, they didn’t give those to the Taliban earlier than 1989, hence the reasoning is a good strategy, played out of design, a pattern can now be recognized, if this ever happens, ever again. }

2000-2008 {America finds itself under attack in 2001. Its response; starts another war in Afghanistan, against the very rebels, that they once owned. Next comes a war in Iraq, then, comes the 2007-2008 Great Depression.

{ Fact is; America finds itself as the only super power, which then; engages in various overseas expensive, non productive adventures. Many of them engaged in without any reasoning, just the drums of war for no apparently reason, possibly GREED, all legalised on by great speculation, acts of crime was been committed in the name of democracy for the world. America over the last centuries have bombed more than 50 countries, just to retain, its hold as a super power. Truth is America; is on a decline as it lost its, higher ground of morality, its adventures in Iraq, were build on false premises and greed, since most politicians of that time, were all involved in IRAQ deals, this by itself, became exposed and everyone, who had the eyes to see, , this then in itself, empowered the world. One by one, everyone questioned, What Moral Authority, whenever America called out a Red Line, no one took heed, Today; America is on a state of decline, a vanishing super power, and with huge debts on its head.

2008-2012 { Global Revolutions brought about by extreme high commodity prices, partially caused by the EL NINO, affect. Revolutions broke out in almost all parts of the middle east, all within a very short time. And the ramifications of those, looked like it could also happen worldwide simultaneously.

  Read more

Technopreneurship Development – Daniel Mankani

December 9, 2012
technopreneurship_Daniel-Mankani

Technopreneurship – The Successful Entrepreneur in the New Economy – Daniel Mankani

{Reprinted with permission “Technopreneurship – The Successful Entrepreneur In the New Economy” – by Author Daniel Mankani, to purchase this book, proceed to amazon.}

A Role for Society in Technopreneurship Development, a chapter written in 2002, explains the creative destructive forces at work in practically every aspect of human life and the reasoning for the massive confusion, leading up to revolutions, lack of employment opportunities and governments fiscal deficits. Technology is usually blamed for making the world a smaller place, the writing was on the wall since the late nineties, this chapter refreshes our memories.

Daniel Mankani is the founding CEO of BTAMSC and drives strategic decisions of the company, currently he is writing, “Knowledge Based Economy, Its Evolution, Not Revolution, the new prelude should update Technopreneurship-The Successful Entrepreneur in the New Economy, an often quoted text book, part of  universities diploma/degree syllabus on technopreneurship courses.

 To download PDF version of this chapter, click here.

A Role for Society in Technopreneurship Development

The economies of industries are already in a grave recession, the addition of the information economy has further diluted its potential value and the collapse of the NASDAQ has in essence killed all consumers and businesses growth potential.

Today, we stand at important crossroads, the hope is for information technology to address the inefficiencies that are visible in today’s marketplace and provide us with a platform to jumpstart and revive the global economy.

The NASDAQ collapse was a boon in disguise, it showed us the importance of value and reminded us about the rallies of greed and their sustainability, the only regret we have today is the rally should have been checked and shouldn’t have got out of hand.

In this process, the move to the upside on world markets made us to forget the basis of economic growth, made us to think we are invincible and made us to build up huge layers of inefficiencies, debt and excesses in the system, which we are now fighting hard to correct.

Today, we have more of everything, we have more food on the face of the planet, we have more technology then we can use, we have more houses then people can be sheltered and all that we lack is market driven demand to soak them up

On the other hand, the involvement of Eastern Europe, China, India and a dozen of other countries in the capitalist markets in the last two decades is not helping us either, all of these countries are churning and dumping goods and services on the world markets faster than any demand we could build up, this in essence has then contributed to a disastrous dilution effect, which is of little value as it destroys wealth.

In turn, the dilution era has effected consumers and businesses spending patterns and they have tighten their belts and have developed a wait and see attitude towards prices, with the rationale, why buy now? When tomorrow goods are only going to get cheaper? The tomorrow they look forward to may never materialize as the days thereafter prices are expected to head even lower.

The old routes of economic growth and prosperity have also been increasingly blocked, the earlier days economic model which once seemed rock solid do not function anymore, the export oriented growth model, which most Asian countries implemented are now in doubt and the once successful Japanese model has faltered and all this is very disturbing.

What we are experiencing is the collapse of all demand as we know it and this has affected practically every business, with businesses in trouble then the question is, who is going to employ our workers, who is going to pay those taxes and how are we going to keep the engines of the economy humming along fine.

The answer may just be in front of our eyes.  TECHNOPRENEURS> we need more of the technopreneur to build world-class companies. We need technopreneurs to build solutions that will spur growth and demand so excesses can be soaked up with ease and we need technopreneurs to build up the information economy whose value will benefit the economies of industries the world over.

In a speech on “Structural Change in the New Economy”, delivered to the National Governors Association on July 11 2000, Federal Reserve Chairman Allan Greenspan argues, “it is the proliferation of information technology throughout the economy that makes the current period appear so different from preceding decades.”

He continues by mentioning ’“One result of the more-rapid pace of IT innovation has been a visible acceleration of the process that noted economist Joseph Schumpeter many years ago termed ‘creative destruction’—the continuous shift in which emerging technologies push out the old.” Among the advantages of the New Economy is the ability of corporations to generate a flood of information in mini- seconds, allowing them to “reduce unnecessary inventory and dispense with labor and capital redundancies.”

He highlights to us, the speed and efficiency of the integrated supply chain in the new economy and its greatness whose effects can be felt not in the matter of months of years but within days of major economic shifts throughout the whole system, and it’s this efficiency that in turn pinches the man on the street, who controls the majority of all spending and capital.

Another key point the Fed Chairman highlighted was the manner in which the supply chain had been integrated at all levels within the economy, he points out that it’s this efficient supply chain in the global economy that removes the redundancies in the marketplace, if so then this also means majority of the world population are been weeded out and are becoming obsolete.

In all respects these have seen the markets becoming transparent than ever before, the consumer is more demanding than ever before and competition today is so fierce than ever before.

The effects of globalization and the dynamic movements of capital are greater than ever before and the effects, sentiments of the global financial markets are having a greater impact on economies than ever before.

These are in essence some of the challenges for countries and their respective governments for they are wondering how they could retain human capital and their intellectual contribution for a better tomorrow.

They are wondering how they could lead their people out of the economic adversity for the economies of industries and demands have collapsed.  For they have to understand that it’s the technopreneur who develops innovation and that attracts capital and it’s him who holds the key of our economic prosperity for tomorrow.

As society we have a major role to play to assist in the technopreneur’s development and that of technopreneurship, we have to create a cohesive environment, where innovation can be breed, tested and where capital can be assessed so that the technopreneur of today can be market leaders of tomorrow.

We have to encouraging, forgiving towards their deeds and caring towards their needs for they we are breeding leaders who have will command market share and determine how we compete on an International level.

For capital is global and it’s the single most denominating factor that affects our lives, our assets and therefore our future generations and it’s this capital that is attracted to the technopreneur and his world-class company.

It’s the technopreneur’s world class company in our local stock markets that attracts capital and it’s this capital whose movements are swift and are a performance indicator of our underlying economy, increasingly this capital and technology that used to pour in from the first world is also slowing, causing forecasters to systematically downgrade all of our future economic prospects.

With the old foundations of success gone, Technopreneurs, research and development programs, creative capital, and responsible information technology incubating institutions are quickly replacing and building the economic growth foundations for the twenty first century.

We as society, have to ensure we have proper educational processes in homes, schools and universities, if we are to breed technopreneurs, as parents we have to teach them to be giving, responsible, reasonable and allow them in the freedom to express themselves, allow them to destroy the old in creation of the new and most importantly we have to teach them the power of knowledge and how to be able to harness it.

At schools we have to teach them subjects of science instead of politics, we have to show them books of mathematics instead of geography and we have to hold the creators of innovations high, instead of those who capitalize on them.

At universities we have to lead them to the problems and provide them with a foundation in addressing them and not solve problems, which do not exist. We have to teach them the importance of efficiency and the drive behind market demands.

Our professors have to be learned but learned from experience instead of books themselves, because they are good for reference and history, but are static, we need the dynamism and the learned to teach them the joys, pains, prerequisites of a startup cycle and impart to them strategies of management, business and creative destruction.

Our employers have to work harder and weed out any signs of negativity, since productivity, efficiency and creativity directly suffers from them. Our employers have to impart to them stories of persistence and success of the old economy and teach them the importance of teamwork and corporate culture.

For we want to breed visionaries who we want to command and rule the world, cause these are the visionaries, who will capitalize on the great opportunity created by globalization and the Internet.

In the 21st century the recipe for success is knowledge based, not resource based and for those who recognize this, knowledge is the new basis of wealth.

Such is the new wealth that it’s powerful and movable for it can make a country success and while taking the away the success from another. As a society our protection is the buildup and distribution of this wealth for we need to create a system for those who want to access it.

For we need to build up facilities for research and development and creative capital to support them, we need our leaders of yesterday years to assist the leaders of tomorrow. We need our businesses to provide technopreneur’s with the platform for research, development and deployment, so that problems can be viewed, addressed and solutions developed, for they need businesses to recognize that if they are successful, collectively their success comes together.

Businesses need to understand, startups require creditability and require support on the local grounds before they can make way to the global levels, businesses need to understand that technology by itself is no competitive advantage and knowledge is never equal at all levels.

They need to understand that any solution delivered by any big institution has the same components as that of a startup’s offering and at times contracts awarded to big name companies may have been developed by a startup as part of a third party outsourcing agreement. They need to understand that brand name software doesn’t necessarily contain brand type value and lastly they need to understand that technopreneurs are among the best for the job, as they crave for your success more than the businesses themselves.

Businesses need to understand that technopreneurs are no threat to them, but are revolutionary’s implementing change necessary for our evolution, they are required to study the inefficiencies, implement the new and provide a basis for tomorrows growth, despite of this, businesses are still staffed with negativity which fear and that their end is near.

The negativity in the economy is so great, that everyone who accepts change expects risk and risk is what many cannot afford. Businesses need to change this or bring in fresh blood to create this cohesive environment, for the longer the delay. Longer will be its pain.

Businesses need to accept failure and respect those who have failed. One of the many complains that technopreneurs have today, is that they are not accepted back into society as they have failed, they are riddled and feared, and after all who would want to employ an ex-dot comer or a technopreneur that has done it all.

The technopreneur has figured out his income, raised capital, strategize his operations and most importantly has determined his own fate by dynamic adapting to the changes in the environment, on the other hand we have a manager who lives in the shelter of his employer and fears holdings the reins of change and accepting a technopreneur is accepting change.

Businesses need to figure all this out and if they have to creativity destroy the old chains of command and bring in the dynamic, motivated and enthusiastic fresh blood in the organization, theirs choice should very well be the technopreneur again.

For their fear that once the technopreneur has figured them out they will become obsolete, they need to realize if one’s value is lesser then their cost no matter which role they play, they will surely become obsolete.

For they need to understand that the technopreneurs asset is that of knowledge and knowledge is the new wealth, it’s intangible and movable. For they need to understand that never before have we leveraged on the value of knowledge and it was investments in knowledge and intellectual property that made the richest man in this world.

Never before have we seen the richness of knowledge and despite all this, we still see banks refusing to finance its worth and venture capital firms unable to gauge its worth.

For we need to build up the network from which capital can be assessed. Angels, banks and venture capital firms have important roles to play, as without the required capital, development and deployment is in question. While innovation and knowledge is the part of the mind, soul and passion, it requires capital as oxygen to function.

Banks today are still stuck in their glory days and with the dot com collapse they have turned so negative that liquidity has been squeezed from the system, they are still waiting for the hey days where there were millions of dollars requirements towards industry development. For their fail to understand that industrial activity is at a standstill and all that was required to be developed has already been developed.

They rather take the chances of pushing more credit cards in the hands of the consumer, for they think the consumer is safer. They fail to realize the potential of the knowledge based economy and fail to see the potential of the technopreneur.

They still ask for tangible assets for financing, failing to realize the technopreneurs assets are intangible, what is required of them is the need to build a valuation model for intellectual property that ensure their commercial viability, similar to the manner they do with real estate property, they should ask for patents and customer endorsements before they lend money.

It’s the same with venture capital companies, for they are staffed with ex-bankers who don’t really understand their own business and they don’t understand the business of the technopreneur. They want to see fool proof business plans and want sure win guarantee’s, for their fail to understand that it’s not the plan but the execution that counts and they need to know that execution has to be dynamic so as to determine its success.

They need to understand the investment and its larger opportunity and place their bets on the execution strategy and the team. They need to understand that deals that look very good are seldom the ones who are winners. They need to understand that the number of times they can place a bet, the lesser the risk of ruin and larger the probability of wins. For they are the venture capitalist and becoming a banker is where their failure lies.

It’s the same with Angels. For they want to invest and they want the best price and best bargain, they fail to understand the potential and they fail to understand a hundred percent of zero is zero and five percent of one hundred million is still five million, for most angels deals that have collapsed, the reason has always been equity distribution and valuation and finally when the angel did invest at his preferred rate he got his deal but he lost his money due to his greed.

Angels need to understand the viability of the project and the value the bring on the table, for their expertise is needed in early stages and its value is greater than money, If its pure capital and then the angel and the technopreneur should focus on the potential return instead of the size of holdings.

While all this is our recipe for the new economy, which is within our grasp, its execution is the key and its implementation is necessary. It requires consistency, sincerity and a multi facet strategy and who else but the local governments have the strengths to be the driving force for such implementation.

[1]As stated by International Advisor and Consultant, Dr Khalid Abdullah Tariq Al-Mansour, he says, Empty Sincerity, however noble, is no substitute for self-sacrificing, visionary, disciplined and committed political leadership. Relevant public and private education, in all its many challenging forms, must be continuous touted, reinvented and improved. In this regard, special stress must be placed upon “knowledge-based” science, math, logic and reason, technology, morality, engineering and creative strategic planning. In the process, every functional institution of society must be co-opted and given concrete, achievable assignments.

Dr Khalid comments are held in the highest regards and as an advisor to governments; he understands well what the governments have to do in order to turn around their respective economies. For it’s the government that hold the reins of economic growth and prosperity in their hands, it’s them who have to embark on a plan for technopreneurship development. For they are the ones who have to ensure there is adequate capital and resources available for the technopreneur.

For they have to understand that we are in a deflationary era and excess supply of money in the system today doesn’t have the same effects as during inflationary times, they have to ensure money supply is distributed at all levels within the system and draining money out of the system during economic fallouts will head us into a depression.

They have to understand that providing capital to venture companies is not enough, they have to ensure that the money is put into real ventures. They have to understand investments in development without the user base and acceptance of that development is of little value.

Lastly they have to understand they have to put their trust into technopreneurs who are the leaders of tomorrow, but before that as they are leaders themselves, they were once lead by another who showed them the ways.
/END

To buy the complete version of this book in print, please proceed to Amazon.com

[embeddoc url=”https://idealbroker.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Technopreneurship-Unedited-Manuscript-2002-Daniel-Mankani.pdf” download=”all” viewer=”google”]


[1] Quoted from Asia Pacific, Information and Communication Technology (APIT) January 2002 issue. Feature – Lessons for the Future, Dr Khalid Abdullah Tariq Al-Mansour.


LINKS
Disclaimer. http://ul3.com/L30qH
Back to the Beginning. http://ul3.com/aeVUG
BTAMSC – http://ul3.com/vAqdH
The Greed: http://ul3.com/pUDgd
The Ignorant, Zombies: http://ul3.com/PP8Ez
History: http://ul3.com/1rCFA
Chart Patterns: http://ul3.com/54VLV
Introduction to Technical Analysis. http://ul3.com/kcYCE
INTRODUCTION TO FINANCIAL MARKETS & TRADING OPPORTUNITIES IN COMMODITY, CURRENCY, & FINANCIAL FUTURES. http://ul3.com/dAFWj
Revolutionary Transformation Ongoing. http://ul3.com/kcYCE
– Global Economic Collapse  January 18, 2016


And Why;
Technopreneurship Development – Daniel Mankani. http://ul3.com/kcYCE
– Published Sep 2003. Pearson Education Asia

Information Technology

July 26, 2010

Information Technology

Summary-Technology by itself is unable to benefit companies, rather its the information that is derived from the use of it that provides managers and business owners with business strategies.

Technology on its own accord can only provide automation to single or multiple processes. Information technology on the other hand is a methodical understanding of all processes within any organized structure.

Businesses are simply an organized structure at work and its processes integrated at various levels, makes them efficient.

Integration consists of various datasets, derived from operational flow of divisions, departments and all systematic processes within, the study of this information provides management to better redeploy, resources at various levels to generate enhanced value of its existence, this could mean better value for customers and enhanced value for shareholders.

Once BTAMSC solutions are deployed, everyone is automatically made well aware, which redundant processes is the problem, once identified fatty layers are then structurally redeployed or made obsolete, this is where, corporate managers are instructed to better deploy skill and product resources in order to keep the corporation growing on track with its intended goals.